-EURUSD threatens high
-GBPUSD nears resistance line
-AUDUSD risk of reversal still high
-USDJPY support at 95.40
-USDCAD potential support at 1.1460
[B]Euro / US Dollar[/B]
Since the March top at 1.3742, the EURUSD has traded down to 1.2886 and most recently back above 1.3700. Neither the decline nor the advance are impulses therefore a larger correction is underway. One such count, which I have highlighted in recent days, is a triangle. With price so close to 1.3722, the triangle count is unlikely at this point. The complex correction count, in which wave Y is underway from 1.2884, is the more likely candidate at this point. Near term, the decline from 1.3722 was confirmed as corrective (3 waves) when 1.3667 was exceeded. Near term structure is bullish above 1.3583. Coming under there would signal a bearish opportunity.
[B]British Pound / US Dollar[/B]
Having exceeded 1.5356, the short term bearish GBPUSD bearish count was eliminated. There is no change to the bigger picture pattern in which wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high is nearing completion. Watch the resistance line drawn off of the 3/24 and 4/6 highs as well as the 200 day SMA as levels that may lead to a reversal. If near term patterns indicate with a high probability that a top is already in place, then I’ll mention as much with an alert at DailyFX.
[B]Australian Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
The AUDUSD made a new high as expected. Wave v of C (and therefore wave C) as well as the entire rally from the October low is close to complete. The risk of a top and reversal is high.
[B]New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
The NZDUSD is lagging the AUDUSD. That the NZDUSD has not made a new high and the AUDUSD has may mark a non-confirmation…a divergence. There is divergence as well with daily RSI. Structurally, the NZDUSD rally from .5831 may be a truncated 5th wave (wave v of C in this case). I am on the lookout for a top and reversal.
[B]US Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
I wrote last week though that “I want to urge caution as the pair approaches 93.50. The circled area could still be a triangle in the X wave position. With this in mind, bears may want to lighten up.” The rally from 94.55 is in 5 waves and confirms that a larger advance is underway, perhaps as part of the triangle. Short term support from Fibonacci is at 95.40.
[B]US Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
Big picture, there are 5 waves up from the 2007 low of .9050. The decline from 1.3068 is the correction (either a b wave of a 2nd wave) of that advance. The first level of potential support is the former 4th wave extreme at 1.1459. Fibonacci support is then at 1.1060 and 1.0590. A drop below 1.1475 could complete a double zigzag (7 waves). The new low would create divergence with RSI as well so a low and reversal is possible within the next several days.
[B]US Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
Whereas the EURUSD has yet to exceed its March high of 1.3742, the USDCHF has already dropped below its March low of 1.1157. In other words, minimum expectations have been met for wave Y. So, it is possible that a low is in place. As I mentioned yesterday, confidence is not extremely high.