how to predict the candle next move. the trade always go south whichever direction I trade. appreciate your rational answers
Whatever the candlesticks say is going to happen next, the most likely thing to happen is that price continues to move in the direction of the underlying trend. If price does not continue the trend immediately, it might range for a short period: or it might pull back a short distance: but as long as the trend is unbroken, it will probably continue.
Bear in mind also that when a trend breaks, that does not mean that price will immediately start a new trend in the opposite direction.
Just depends on what’s going on with the price. Like @tommor said, take a look at the trend somewhere around 75% that after consolidation the trend will continue in the same direction. Counter trend trading is a difficult practice so stick with trend trading til you are profitable. And I would advise to start on higher time frames as well, like day or 4HR charts.
But no matter how good the setup is, the market will do what it wants to do. So take what the market gives, trade what you see not what you think it should do.
If you can do price action and market context analysis, you can understand the movement of the candle.
This is something swing traders have to keep in mind: the possibility of being wrong.
appreciate your reply. I am trading with 15m to 1 hour timeframe. win ratio is very less against losses.
will try to test higher timeframe strategy…
Just curious, how long you been trading?
Since five months
I would recommend starting on higher time frames, but to each their own.
The higher time frames just have more data in the candles and give you time to see the trade and study a little before taking it. You can make the same amount of money as well with fewer trades.
Taking more trades does not guarantee more money, but of course we’re not guaranteed to make any money lol.
will take baby steps. at least I wont burn my account like this…
Yes baby steps, the only reason I know is cause I have burned a few accounts lol. So just trying to keep others from making some of my mistakes. But also remember what works for me may not always work for you.
Just keep digging and you’ll find what works for you, just be prepared for a lot of emotions, highs and lows.
true that. Handwork and consistency always pays off.
Happy trading to you and to all fellow traders…
I have been trading for quite some time now and have yet to come across a method for predicting what the next candle will be or do.
The only people who can do that are Elliot Wave traders and from a number of studies are the worst performing traders in the market.
If u find a method of predicting candles please message me…
In the real world of trading though what happens is traders will see a pattern and place entries above or below the extremes of the pattern.
Sometimes their order will be hit and they are in a trade, but many times the order is never triggered and needs to be cancelled.
These candle extremes (where the orders are placed) act as high(er) probability points where the market MAY continue in the same direction.
While I am playing with semantics here, this is a serious point.
When we predict we have an ego investment in the outcome - which can lead to disaster for a trader.
If on the other hand we acknowledge we have no idea what the market is going to do next (despite where we placed our orders) we have taken a giant leap in our trading ability.
What I will advise you to do is learn how to plot the pivot highs and lows of the market on the timeframe chosen.
Try looking at Tom Demark Trendlines for a very simple but reliable method for plotting trendline points.
thanks for insight… controlling emotions is the hardest part I guess, that leads us to overtrade and make silly mistakes to recovery our losses
I will surely look into this method…
Nice post agree with this completely
Where that giant leap will lead to?
What would be the next thing to understand?
Need to develop trading skills. If you want to get an idea about the next candle, you have to learn the price action strategy. And a lot of hard work.
I think there are a number of quantum leaps in understanding as a trader goes from neophyte to consistently profitable.
Embracing uncertainty as I’ve said is one - simply admitting to yourself you have no idea where the market is going is a big one
Other eureka moments include realising that your win rate does not necessarily mean how profitable you are.
Some of the best traders ever had a win rate of 50% or below
Another is the more you trade does not equate to higher profits.
Another, that trading is the greatest psychologically therapy there is - and until you start working on correcting your own inner conflicts and demons you will not be consistently profitable.
Another is that simple strategies are better than complex ones.
Another is that fundamentals DO matter - if you don’t know which way a market is going to break technically usually the funnymentals will tip you off, as one example.
There are many more realisations on the path to profitability but these are just a few
Yes, well, why no trader, except time travellers, can predict the next candle, take any one minute chart and try to select the most probable outcome by analysing what’s happened before the current candle. Do that for one hour and you’ll probably get the overall picture.
Any trader competent at reading price movement on charts, would be capable of selecting the probable outcome just by the very nature of the candle movements. Candles/Wicks come in different shapes and sizes, which are signals whether buyers or sellers are in control. This is critical.
As there are only three outcomes per candle it becomes less difficult to understand what’s going on. Other posters here have given great advice, and this should be taken into account throughout.
So, the next candle could probably continue the movement, or could reverse, or it’s too damn hard to be clear, which is a standoff until the second next candle arrives.
The most successful price action trader in today’s world is Al Brooks, having spent thirty odd years analysing chart price movement, and he will explain his method of assessing just this probability.
Hope that helps. BTW, the link below also provides free education on price movement. I’m not recommending or involved in the course.
Pearl of wisdom there