Ep…it’s like this buddy. if you think a 55% rate isn’t much of an edge… I will play you all day long in a game that would replicate this exact same scenario…and furthermore…you can bet as much or as little as you want… and you can stop at any time… up to $100 per bet. and i’m 100% serious when I say If you are interested, we will do this, for as long as you want to. Minimum of 100 flips…but there is no maximum. as much as you want…we’ll do this. and i will gladly pay if I owe you at the end of 100 flips…as long as you will pay me what you owe me if it turns out I win after 100 or more flips.

Take a fair coin. (we can set up a web cam here to do this with, and I’ll even let you control the coin and i’ll watch on my web cam)

if we flip it 100 times…we can be pretty sure that about 50% will be tails… so, about 50 flips. and the other 50 flips…heads.

Now, a 55% edge would be that out of 100 flips…i (over the long run) would win 5 times more than half. So… if we flipped it 100 times…i would basically end up winning 55 times.

SOOO. To account for this… here is how we are going to make it happen.

You are tails. I am heads. you flip the coin, and I watch on webcam to make sure it’s fair.

HOWEVER. On the 20th flip… I just win. I win if it’s heads. AND, I win if it’s tails. guaranteed.

I also have a guarantee win on the 40th flip, and the 60th, and the 80th, and the 100th flip.

So…that would give me a guarantee of 5 more flips in my favor for every 100 flips.

Now, go ahead…and bet anything you want (up to $100) per flip. You must bet the same exact amount per flip, AND, you must flip it a minimum of 100 times.

Reason for this is… say you risk a flat 1% of your trade account per trade. this is kinda like betting “the same amount per flip”…and 100 flips is easy to account for… during the course of an entire trading career…you will ABSOLUTELY take 100 trades if you are day trading, or even swing trading. probably if you are ANY trading (warren buffett has made over 100 trades in his career…and that guy holds FOREVER!)

you bet anything you want. from $1.00, up to $100 per flip. you must keep the same bet amount for every 100 flips… and you automatically lose on flip 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100. But the rest, you have a 50/50 chance to win.

Let me know if this sounds good to you. I mean…it’s “basically random”. To quote your first post:

“so 55% is no better than taking a guess right?”

If you really believe that it’s no better than taking a guess… you’ll happily take me up on my offer.

IN FACT…to make it worth your while. I’ll automatically pay you $1.00 on flip number 100. SO, if it’s basically no better than taking a guess…you’ll make at least $1.00 just to flip this coin 100 times…over the long run.

And, I’ll let you do this as much as you want. you can flip it 1000 times. or even 10,000 times. heck, I have all day and all night. Now, you automatically lose every 20th flip… and u can bet between $1 and $100 per flip, and you must flip it a minimum of 100 times, but can choose to flip it up to 1 million times if you want to. As long as we total up every 100 flips, and pay out who owes who every 100 flips… i’ll do this with you forever. until I am completely broke in fact. I mean FOREVER.

And look at it this way. You get a guaranteed $1.00 every 100th flip. Seems to me a good deal no?

I hope you are seeing now the power of even a very tiny edge.

Mind you…55% edge isn’t actually tiny. and if u win more money than you lose…when you DO hit that 55%… well… it can be decent.

Jay

P.S. Serious offer on the coin flip tho man. If you agree to the rules above… that would be a 55% win rate for me… “basically random” in your words… I’m SO game to play with you!