I’m just updating my recent trade setup for AUD/NZD. It is quite interesting to see whether the 200 SMA will hold the pressure being applied on AUD. I’m in favor of a bearish possibility since the Weekly Trendline (Brown) held very well. Basically, I’m gonna wait to see if the 1.2960 & 200 SMA price level will hold and ideally waiting for a close below 1.2920 to issue a sell order.
Bounce to the upside? -I’m not sure, and even if we see such thing I don’t have any valid entry & exit points.
EURCHF is worth mentioning that it is approaching the peg proximity at 1.2000. Low volatility but slowly it is gravitating towards the peg proximity area which will give us two opportunities.
First, we might see some channel bouncing over the following weeks which could provide us with some 30M - H1 soft trading possibilities.
Second, we might see another big reaction from the SNB, where we might get to see another massive show.
GBP/USD’s Major Resistance Zone is being heavily tested. The first band couldn’t hold, and at the second band, yesterday we got a Long Shadow Candlestick pattern which hint uncertainty/indecision amongst traders. The pressure is clearly to the downside and I’m looking for a Bearish Engulfing pattern to happen to confirm the breakout of the lower band and ideally the price could go down and fill the space.
Entry: Close Below 1.5334 with a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick pattern. SL: 1.5415 (or lower if we see an aggressive dip) TP_1: 1.5227 TP_2: 1.5143 ATP_3: 1.5010 (Optional target)
The trendline has been broken, however we got an Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern which normally signals reversal movement. I think that the fundamental stuff going around in Europe, is still effecting heavily Sterling as well. I think the fundamental pressure will have an overriding effect in this case, therefore I’m waiting to see how things develop. For a bearish possibility, I might short on daily close below 1.5618 (detailed setup later). For a bullish possibility, I might consider buying on daily close above the orange Resistance (now Support) area.
This is an interesting one. This could be a favorable setup on the coming days. An Ascending Triangle chart pattern and a Bearish Engulfing + Hammer. Pretty mixed signals. However this could be easy to interpret on the following days.
I think a bearish possibility is more possible, due to Euro Zone debt troubles. Normally, if risk aversion is high, big bucks go to ‘Safe Heaven’ stuff like Yen, $ or CHF. Let’s wait and see.
The dip happened but not as we expected. Price closed below the lower band of the resistance area. Truth to be told I’m not entirely convinced of the break-out. However, we got the S&P’s rating that caused the last minute havoc last week. France, Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia & Malta got downgrades. This would definitely mean weaker Euro & stronger Dollar. But technically we don’t have a go for this deal, and I respect Technical Analysis very much. That Longer ‘Long Shadow’ is a deal breaker. I’m gonna sit and wait. Let’s just see how things play out on the coming days.
So for anybody who’s been following, the initial bearish setup is cancelled (If you want to trade the initial setup, that’s fine, I don’t suggest you do however).
Chart:
Good luck.
Disclaimer: TRADE ON YOUR OWN RISK. THIS ANALYSIS IS MEANT FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY.
I’m sorry guys for I couldn’t inform right at the time. I initially posted an entry sell limit @ 1.5615, because I was so sleepy I couldn’t wait for the candle to close. Then around 9:10 GMT I suspected that the price might just follow downwards, and I had to make my friend take the trade for me on Candle Close below 1.5615. So he entered three lots @ 1.55907.
Sorry I just couldn’t open my eyes I had to sleep, I couldn’t post the trade up until now.
If you want to trade this setup, I suggest you put a Sell Limit @ 1.5590 with the same SL and TPs.
P.s. UK CPI data are due to be published at 9:30 GMT this morning, a few changes are expected, be careful, don’t risk too much. Also the BOC will announce Rates at 14:00 GMT, no changes expected.
Good luck.
Disclaimer: TRADE ON YOUR OWN RISK. THIS RECOMMENDATION IS MEANT FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY.
The stuff going around in Middle East is putting some pressure on Oil Prices lately. I suspect the pressure would increase as Iran vs. World situation escalates (I hope not). CAD on the other hand would appreciate in this case as Oil prices tend to increase in this sort of agenda.
Technically speaking, USDCAD has approached the lower line of the wedge/triangle formation and it is testing for the fifth time. If it breaks, maybe we’d see a nice dip aiming 1st 1.000 following the 0.9910 & 0.9780.
I got stopped out this particular deal. Initially it went well, but on Wednesday the (GBP) Initial Jobless Claims data came well beyond expectations on the positive side 1.2Kvs 7.0K. GBP rather reacted very positively.
Entry: 1.05277
SL: 1.0343
TP_1: 1.0748
TP_2: 1.1000
Risk: 1% - Normally I would go with 2%, but we’re on an highly overbought area, we should be careful.
Have fun.
Disclaimer: TRADE ON YOUR OWN RISK. THIS RECOMMENDATION IS MEANT FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY.
Hello. I dont know if i can post here or not as i dont see any others posting around. Well, i just wanted to share a trade that i took today.
I took Long position in USDCHF as a doji formed on the supportline and also it is oversold in stochastic. Do let me know if this trade is correct or do i need to hold for more confirmation.
On the trade. Normally you don’t wanna hang on any assumption that a single candlestick pattern will show any significant reversal/continuation signals. I suppose the yellow line is a historical line, in this case a support area. Technically you have three confluent reasons to go long: Overbought Stochastic, Doji and a significant Support Line. I suppose you are ok :D, I like this idea.
However, I’ve been avoiding CHF pairs due to unpredictable Fundamental intervention from the SNB’s. CHF recently has been pegged at 1.2000 with the EURO, so I’d be careful, I’d watch the EURCHF a lot, as the price could approach the 1.2000 on the EURCHF. The reaction is unpredictable!!! We could see a free fall on the EURCHF if the SNB abandons the pegging idea or suddenly decides to increase the interest rates, which I’m sure you know it’s 0.0%. On the other hand, we could see another intervention, a major bounce maybe. So yeah, if you applied a good money management, I think you’re OK.
Just one more thing, if the candle closes bullishly, the way you posted, the reversal signal is more powerful. The formation is called Evening Doji Star = Long Bear Candle + Doji at the Close + Long Bull Candle. I personally would have waited on the daily close.
The setup triggered a sell signal as we expected on close below 1.0800, however due high momentum I couldn’t get any valid entry point based on RISK/REWARD asymmetrical perspective. The price close yesterday only ~38 pips from the first target. Had we entered the trade, we would have exposed to 1 : 0.47, risking more than double (excluding the optional 3rd target). Maybe we’ll get the chance to sell on pull back. Let see how things develop.
The critical reactive zone 1.5700 - 1.5750 has been reached. It’s interesting to see if the ‘seal’ will resist yet for another round. This zone is being tested for the fourth time in two months period, and I’m eager to see this times reaction. I’ll post some setups later. Let’s just see how things develop?
