The pair has been testing the support zone for 4th consecutive time without breaking it. Also, near the resistance area (82.50) a Shaved Top candlestick has been formed, which hints some bearish reversal maybe ahead, in which case it could confirm a double top formation pattern.
Chart: (7th Feb, 2012)
I’ll update some setups later.
Have fun.
May i know what is the MM1 MM3 lines on your chart, its bit confusing to me…
MM1 = Stands for [B]Monthly Middle 1[/B], in this case it’s the Middle Point Between [B]Monthly Pivot Support 3 & Monthly Pivot Support 2[/B]
MM3 = [B]Monthly Middle 3[/B], the middle point between [B]Monthly Pivot & Monthly Support 1[/B].
As you may have guessed these support & resistance lines are normal Monthly Pivot lines, the same way you use Weekly or Daily pivot points.
I hope I’ve been helpful.
Thnx for the reply, how do i calculate the monthly middle and upon that how do i use it, is it the smae like support and resistance lines or is it something different ?
There are different ways you can do them:
The easiest way is to simply take the average of the two points:
[B]PP = (HIGH + LOW + CLOSE) / 3
S1 = (2 * PP) - HIGH
S2 = PP - RANGE
S3 = S2 - RANGE
R1 = (2 * PP) - LOW
R2 = PP + RANGE
R3 = R2 + RANGE [/B]
Middle Lines:
[B]MM1 = (S3 + S2)/2
MM2 = (S2 + S1)/2
MM3 = (S1 + P)/2
MM4 = (P + R1)/2
MM5 = (R1+ R2)/2
MM6 = (R2 + R3)/2[/B]
You don’t have to calculate them manually. You can find tons of Indicators that calculate them automatically. I wrote the formulas just to give you an idea.
I hope I didn’t confuse you.
Have fun.
P.s. On the subject of usage. They’re really like any other S/R points. I rather use them when setting SL or TP targets. But you can use them as regular S/R points, especially if you use them on lower timeframes.
Hi guys, this is my latest trade I’ve taken. There is still time for those who wanna follow. Risk ratio is rather low.
Chart:
Entry: 0.83705
SL: 0.84350
TP_2: 0.8309
TP_2: 0.8257
TP_3: 0.8226
Have a nice trading week.
Disclaimer: TRADE ON YOUR OWN RISK. THIS RECOMMENDATION IS MEANT FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY.
AUD/NZD sell order from 1st Feb 2012, 1st lot closed manually at: 1.28191 (+70.9 Pips). Technically price went to the first intended target but I closed it just before the Rollover Calculation.
Chart:
Entry: 1.2890
TP_1: Manual Close @ 1.28191 + (70.9 Pips)
TP_2: 1.2715 -Unchanged
TP_3: 1.2590 -Unchanged
SL: 1.2890 - Break Even
We ran on some negative swap for two weeks (& still running). I positive it’s worth it.
Have fun.
AUDNZD Sell Trade Broke Even. Not a bad deal after all. We dug some negative swap but, we hit the first target at least.
Chart:
Total: 70.9 Pips (Account Wise +0.56%)
Have fun.
EUR/GBP Sell order hit it’s first target.
Chart:
Entry: 0.83705
SL: 0.83705 -Break Even
Tp_1: 0.8309 (+61.5 Pips)
TP_1 & TP_2: Unchanged
I might post some other setups later on the weekend. Have fun.
Our latest Short Trade on EUR/GBP broke even.
Chart:
Entry: 0.83705
TP_1: 0.8309 (+ 61.5 pips, account wise + 0.47% *from this trade)
TP_2 & TP_3 not hit.
Not a bad deal after all. Technically I suspected such thing could have happened due to that long shadow candle pattern. Principally though we had no reason to get out early.
I’m gonna get more active nowadays.
Have fun.
May i ask you what’s the wins/loss ratio of this method…?
On average 2.5:1, but still testing some new ideas. I’ve had a couple of medical problems lately, I wasn’t able to focus though, we came square on the last two months. I’ll try to be more active on the following days.
For anybody’s information, I’m open for discussion regarding my setups and analysis. Feel free to criticize. We can make better setups.
Have fun.
THnx for your reply. Im being a newbie, totally confused about following a particular method. Im tryin diff strategies almost everyweek. But im confused to follow. Could you help me out on this ?
Well, I don’t follow any particular strategy perse. My analysis are concluded through Technical (Candlestick patterns mostly), Fundamental & Sentimental research. If you’re seeking mechanical strategies, I inform you that this is not the place. Nothing here is done mechanically, and I only trade based on Daily timeframe. If you wish to trade on a similar way, I suggest you read a couple of books about Candlestick Patterns. I recommend Steve Nison’s books for this particular analysis. But if you want to ask anything in particular, feel free.
As for my setups, I try to post detailed entry & exit points, and I never risk more than 2% in one trade thus max 5 trades at once.
Cheers.
Well, i was tryin to trade off candlestick pattern in H4n H1. It seems to be valid… so what do u think trading in these timeframes ?
the monthly resistance n support you use in ur chart, is it the previous month S&R or average of more months ?
intresting thing is that today i took two trades in m15 timeframe, long when a long legged doji formed on a support line and
a short position when doji formed on resisitance, both worked out very well. will this strategy works or it works only sumtimes ?
First of all, in principle, collective data, statistically speaking more or less act like fractals. No matter small or big (timeframe), patterns ‘should’ work in theory. So it’s not a bad idea to trade candlestick patterns on smaller timeframes, as I said, in theory it shouldn’t be any different than trading on bigger timeframes. I personally like to trade on bigger timeframes Daily, Weekly & Monthly, it’s just fits my personality. I like to take things slow and easy.
My monthly S&R zones consist of normal Pivot Point formulas (make a research) only difference is that, the calculation is done on monthly bases rather than weekly & daily. Besides that I try to find valid S&R zones on my own and then conduct my analysis.
As for your trades, as I’ve said, theoretically it shouldn’t be any different than trading on higher timeframes, but, as you know, the data that we get is a mixture of Emotions, Psychology, Political Intervention, Macro-economical Data, Cheating (you bet) & Manipulation. So, it’s up to you to decide on the validity of the information we’re provided with. But rest assured that the higher the timeframe the more valid the patterns become. So my say is that, if you’re a beginner, you should do lots of testing, research, studying and be determined.
Particularly on the question whether your strategy will work or it will work only sometimes, I don’t really know. I don’t how conducted your trades?- What kind of risk criteria you’ve set? - Which pair you’ve traded and when? So, I don’t really know. Maybe if you provide more information I’ll be able to help.
Have fun.
Here is an interesting pair to look at for the moment. We’ve got some nice candlestick patterns lining up together on a very valid resistance zone. I’m expecting over the following days a Bearish Engulfing pattern for a Bearish scenario. It very possible that the price will get back and retest the 200 SMA before it retains it’s bullish pace.
I’m waiting for some action for further setup details.
Chart:
On the other side though, it’s very worth mentioning that if price really brakes above 127.30 on weekly basis we could see the Double Bottom formation turning into a massive bullish continuation on the following weeks.
Chart: (Weekly)
Keen eye is what we need on this one. If this Double Bottom pattern really works, we’re talking about 700 + pips
Further details & setups later.
Have fun.
may i know what indicators do u use in your charts . I would like to learn about your method of trading. I was tradin off 15 min chart using rsi n candlestick patterns, but its not workin in the long term n many fake signals. So, i would like to shift to daily time frames.
Sure I’ll tell you.
Timeframe: Daily
Indicators: RSI (14); Stochastic (14,3,3), 200 SMA, 8 & 21 EMA, & Monthly Pivot Points with Middle Lines
But, I don’t make decisions based on the indicators. I use them as gauge just to have a better understanding on what’s going on. As I’ve told you earlier, my trade decisions are based on Price Action. Just to give you a better idea, my trading philosophy consists of three major pillars: 1. Chart Analysis (Technical Analysis) 2. Macroeconomical & Geopolitical analysis (Fundamental Analysis) 3. Overall Sentiment (Rumor & Stuff).
If you’re a beginner, firstly you should focus on technical stuff like: Horizontal Historical S&R zones, Trendlines, Chart Patterns, Candlestick Patterns, Harmonic Patterns (Optional, I find them very subjective). Second, thing you need to do is to learn Money/Risk Management principles (very important). Third learn some Macroeconomics, it’ll help you understand the fundamental stuff. Fourth and final Sentimental Research, this includes reading Articles, Commodity Research, Overall Analysis just to get a glimpse of what the mass is thinking.
I really recommend you this site Khan Academy if you want to learn some basic Economics & Macroeconomics, it’s completely free and it has thousands of videos upon various subjects.
I hope I’ve been helpful.
Have fun.
You need to find a strategy you like, that suits your style. How often do you wanna trade? How much time can you spend studying the market? Are you risk averse? Do you wanna get in and out of a trade quickly? Or do wanna let the trade go over a longer period of time? There are a lot questions you can ask yourself to find out the kind of trader you are, or wanna be. Once you find your style you can focus in on a particular way of trading. There are a lot of great systems out there you just need the one that’s suits you. You can be a successful trader, it just takes discipline, patience, perseverance and dedication.
