Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured once again, on last wednesday, to the Congres and Thursday to the House of Representatives, investors on stock markets and somewhat destabilized the currency market.
First he reminder, that the situation of the U.S. economy, especially employment, still justifies a very accommodative monetary policy (which is good for equity markets).
On the other hand, he noted that if economic conditions were improving faster than expected, “the pace of purchases could be reduced more quickly” (which is good for the dollar).
As for the issue of low rate of the central bank, Bernanke said, “because the economy is weak and inflation too, if we increase rate, the economy would sink.”
But finally, the impact on the dollar was weak this last week. The same argument was held on June 19. At this time, the message of an output of QE led EURUSD to 1.34 to 1.2758.
However, the “dovish” speech of July 10, “in which the Fed reminder that any decision will depend on the economics datas of the country,” revived the EUR against the dollar by earning 450 pips in 29 hours trade.
Now, most expectations are in the price, that explain the small variation of the cross after the speech of July 17. “Bernanke knows that he walking on eggshells (…), he does not want to create a market bubble or cause a correction that is too fast,” noted David Gilmore of Foreign Exchange Analytics, adding that Bernanke’s words had not brought new elements.
Now investors are reduced to économics issues. The EUR/USD is in a trading range (1.3185 to 1.2990), with no real momentum. However, it is surprising to see how the EUR is supported despite a clearly positive trend of the U.S. economy against a so weak Eurozone economy. No economic catalyst can justify this resistance.
The other event of the past week, was the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England (BoE) led by its new governor.
According to this document, Mark Carney got unanimously on the status quo that has imposed the policy rate and asset purchases. The institution, which noted the recent improvement in the UK economy, also opened the way for discussion on new measures to support the economy, and the establishment of explicit paths rates.
For the coming week
We will closely follow the U.S. housing figures. Indeed, last week, bad real estate market figures were allowed to the bullish hands to keep the hands upward. These bad news are another blow after the sharp rise in mortgage rates. The Housing starts indicator is even more alarming and completely erases its strong rebound last month, with a drop of 9%. These figures will be scrutinized closely by the Fed as the recovery of the construction sector is the mainstay of the American recovery. Deterioration of the real estate sector could delay the date of the first reduction of QE.
The Purchase Management Index for China and Europe will be followed by investors.
UK GDP is as expected than the childbirth of the Duchess of Cambridge, Kate Middleton.
Finally, for the United States, employment figures, with jobless claims and the UMich index, will be expected to rise.
What about the medium term:
Finally, there were two significants events during the weekend, but their effects will be in the medium term.
The Japanese went to the polls Sunday to renew half of the senators. A clear victory for the party of the current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who leads an ultra-accomodative monetary policy could push the dollar higher?
On the other hand, the G20 had a meeting last Saturday in Moscow. They have agreed to give priority to growth, pushing fiscal discipline in the background, because of a fragile global economy.
“It is clear that we need to restore confidence and create the conditions for growth and employment,” said the IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at a press conference.
The important question is about the “how to” create the conditions for growth and employment? Thus, in their statement, the ministers insist on “reducing the fragmentation of financial markets”, “The banking union in Europe”, “the rebalancing of global growth” or “maintain accommodative monetary policies”.
So what will be the impact of these monetary and fiscal policies on the currency market?