Chance of success

Beginner Questions
1

Hello trader ,

I’m average person with average intelligence and want to make my way through trading… that’s not going with tons of question … and the biggest I have , is a average people like me can really succeed in trading?
I want to heard from people who were like me, past years, without even knowing the word forex…
Will save you time, I’m don’t care of Rolex, Lamborghini or luxury yatch, what’s attracting me the most is the infinite and huge challenge that can offer trading. So don’t need to explain that I have long and hard way to go through.
Not either thinking of throwing my boss to hell, quit my job and work on a beach somewhere in the world… I actually have a steady and good job which I’m totally fine to do it for years and beyond.

It’s been 5 or 6 months I’m learning hard the basics, but sometime you can find somebody saying it’s impossible to success because you’ll competing against financial institutions… I learnt that the job not to fight against them but identify where they are going and follow them, tho !!

So, is there anybody who was in this kind of doubt? And after years of failures , sacrifices , and hard work could succeed and became a decent trader who can generate good scores, all by themselves , with small capital? (1500$ for example)

Thanks in advance for those who will take a few minutes on their valuable time to read me and give a quick, constructive and honest answer 🥹 :face_with_monocle:
Cheers

9 Likes
2

Trading is tough, but it’s not just about being smart; it’s about sticking to your plan, always learning, and adjusting to changes. Many regular folks, by staying focused and being careful, have done well in trading, even with a small starting amount.

6 Likes
3

Hi @uriki
You certainly have the right mindset for starting your forex journey. And being a successfully consistent trader is not about having a high level of intelligence.

It is about having the right mindset, a clear strategy that fits your character and circumstances, the patience and discipline to trade your strategy, sufficient capital, and sensible risk/money management parameters.

It is about maximising your gains, minimising your losses and protecting your capital.

It is about picking suitable markets, learning their characteristics, and trading position sizes that are comfortable and don’t cause you stress. Be modest in your expectations, and allow sufficient room for your stoploss levels to avoid “accidents” that eat into your equity.

I suggest your first move is to clarify what kind of trader you want to be e,g, day trader, swing trader, etc. how much time and capital you have, and which markets you are going to trade. Then open a demo account and systematically build a strategy that gives you an edge in the market.

Regarding the “edge”, no trade is a certainty regarding its outcome. It is always a question of probability. Price can move either up or down from where it is now. Your job is to assess which direction is most likely, how far it might travel . and where to get out if it is wrong.

We do indeed often hear this and IMO it is absolute and total garbage! You are not “competing” against anyone!

The forex market is huge and full of all kinds of participants. The price moves according to changes in the overall pressures of supply and demand. There is (almost) always a bid/offer price in the market and you simply buy where you want to buy and sell where you want to sell.

There are two core approaches to choosing direction. Either you can try to form an opinion based on fundamental factors such as economic data, central bank policies, etc, or you can analyse what the market price is doing using technical analysis techniques. Naturally, these are not mutually exclusive and you can work a combination of both.

The beauty of forex trading is that you can be your own self and make your own decisions. This alone is rewarding, but any financial gain is certainly icing on the cake :slightly_smiling_face:

However, it is not easy. It is very challenging and demanding and, at times, hard on one’s emotions. You will lose and you will gain. That is the nature of trading probabilities. You cannot win if you are not in the “game”- but if you are in the “game” you will also lose some. And remember that some 70-80% of retail traders fail. That is a fact. But it is important not to just focus on each individual trade, it is the overall performance over time that proves the consistency. Do not worry about the tree, just look after the forest…

Yes, it can be done - best wishes to you :slightly_smiling_face:

8 Likes
4

Short answer: Yes, it is hard and as you know 90 % of traders loses, but i think it’s because most of them think that trading is a one-not plan for making lots of money. If you have a plan and you care about educating yourself well in that case I think you can make it.

1 Like
5

Following on from Sovo $ as the majority of traders are losers, your aim should be to identify losing traders, and trade the opposite as the probability is you will be on the right side of a trade.

My trend trade strategy is designed to seek out where losing traders close their accounts or get stopped out - mostly at a previous support and resistance zone. Which helps me identify where to place my T/P. That is where your profit comes from.

BTW, the FX market is a zero sum payout to winners and losers - and a negative sum when brokers fees are included.

2 Likes
6

(post withdrawn by author, will be automatically deleted in 24 hours unless flagged)

7

Thank for you answer, I just wanna make sure I’m not going to keep on spending a huge amount of time and, possibly money, for something just not reachable for a mere mortal like me.
Building my own strategy, adjust, readjust, that’s exactly what’s exciting

2 Likes
8

Thanks you @SovoS, that’s was a very constructive answer, certainly make me more confident on the fact I have a chance of success and encourage me to dip deeper into my long trading journey :grin:

I agree with you, my first step will be finding out what kind of trader will suits me the most … how the heck I’m going to that, I have no idea but will find out. The first focus will be on protecting as much as possible the capital i will add on my account and keep learning.
I’ve bought some books, look at the lot of websites but I must say, for learning, the pipsology school is the best so far, is incredibly complete, just to put me on the right path. That’s what I believe.

I’m not afraid about making effort, spending time and sacrifice, I like challenge, it’s on the psychological part that have no idea of how good I can manage that…
I’m French, and dreamt to live in Japan. Few years back I took the step, start learn Japanese and English in the same time. I lived in NZ, Australia first and now I’m living in Japan. Still have work to do on the language but my objective is achieved (not 100% but nearly)
So now I need a new big challenge, I don’t know I must like making my life complicated :joy:

Thanks for your advice, and will keep watching the forest then :wink:

2 Likes
9

Hi @charlotte_daily , thanks for you answer.

I believe that a large number of those 90% are inflated by gamblers , people who believe in Santa klaus and people who have been brought into the market by influencer making them think that they will be rich within a year.
And the rest of them, may not have the right personality for such job.

I’ll take the necessary time to educate myself , I’ve been learning for almost 6 months and will do extra 6 months or more if necessary :grin:

3 Likes
10

Hello @steve369 , thanks for your answer.

I’ve heard about this kind of strategy, instead of spotting where are going the biggest fishes, spotting where everybody is place their stop loss.
Have your leant that by yourself on experience?

1 Like
12

Yes, exactly. this social media thing and its influencers portray trading as something like fantasy word where you pour yourself a coffee and make money by just clicking. They have no understanding of real market/trading/etc, etc.

1 Like
13

I agree with you on that. It’s like they’re having their heads in the clouds. They don’t realize that this thing—trading—is not a game and should be taken seriously. All they know is that’s what those influencers show them.

14

I spent three years developing my trend trading strategy until I am now comfortable.

For example, on an upward trend trade I seek out a previous resistance zone where there is a probability that the order flow would move the price action up to a similar place. I always use pivot points as a price action guide.

Therefore I place my T/P before the losing traders blow their trades, and I set my S/L at an opposite equal distance below to cater for small retracements on the way up.

It’s brought me a positive probability of c.55% winning trades. Placing T/P is the most critical because it is a slight edge over just 50-50 guesswork.

Hope that helps.

2 Likes
15

I fully support folks who are trying to learn, I’m there myself! However, I think it’s important to be realistic about reward:risk ratios, and factor in how much capital you have to speculate to determine if it makes sense at this point in your life / career.

Starting with $1500, its recommended that you only risk 1 - 2 % of your capital on each trade. Lets say you are finding winners with 2:1 ratios (very generous) and winning 60% of your trades (again very generous for a beginning trader). If you’re looking for trades on a daily timeframe, you’ll probably spot 2 -3 high probability setups per month. So you’re netting $100 - 120 per month, pre-tax, fees, etc…

So as an intellectual exercise, thats fine, but dont expect to even match a minimum wage job in terms of income potential with such a low capital amount.

Not trying to discourage but cite some realistic figures. Like a DYI youtuber I like says, if you have low capital to start with, invest in yourself (courses, certificates, etc) vs. investing in the market, is typically the way to go.

1 Like
16

4c8740d77ccb0c59b859c12a6323eb24--chinese-proverbs-martial-arts

4 Likes
17

Absolutely, trading requires more than just intelligence. It’s about discipline and adaptability. With that in mind, here’s a wise question:

1 Like
18

Yes, I’ve heard of that strategy, which involves identifying areas where traders place their stop-loss orders.

19

Well, I disagree. :joy: I was laid off in my 40s and decided to change careers by attending a 6-month technical training school. My friends and ex-coworkers said nothing at the time. A few years later, I was unable to get a job and gave up. And then my friends and ex-coworkers started telling me that they didn’t think it would work out. So everyone knew except me! I wish they had discouraged and/or stopped me BEFORE i started attending the school. Later, whenever someone thought about attending that school to change careers, I explained WHY it wouldn’t work.

20

It sounds like you have tried to make some good come from your own bad experiences in order to help other people. All you can do is tell people what you know and that’s what you did.

I have sympathy with you trying to start another career in the 40’s years - not easy. What lessons did you draw from the failed training idea?

21

@steve369 as a beginner, every information are welcome.
But before reach that level of guessing where the herd are likely to place their stop loss will require me some time…
I’ll keep that in mind anyway, some article talk about it. Cheer :+1: