Chance of success

@froghunter Hi there ! Thank you to share your experience here and I send you all my sympathy to you… I hope situation got better for you.

So you’ve intended technical trading courses in order to find a job? What job? Trader?
Unless having big master degree or more in financial or economic area I reckon that’s impossible to find a job as a trader. Trading job could be done only in hedge-fund, bank and so forth… they are certainly ain’t to hire somebody with 6 months technical trading course.

The question of this thread isn’t that, I’m talking about retail trader, for your own.
I wanna hear from somebody who like me, past years didn’t have any knowledge in trading and now, after a stormy path and few years later has became profitable.

@froghunter just for additional thoughts,
I’ve learn in my beginning that trading, especially forex, is not for unemployed, people who struggles with money, gambler ect… (not saying is your case, just stating what I learn and what also sounds logic to me)
This must be taken seriously, with as steady job with a safe revenue, and a sound financial base.
A carrier as retail trader can be considered but after years of experience and a portfolio well diversified.

Let me explain it from a different perspective, I come from a high end consulting background, let’s say you target $160k per year then you have these options at benchmark which is 20%, normally per year, in Forex, in Stocks it’s 2% with benchmark per month (lack of leverage).

800k capital at 20% per year
200k capital at 20% per quarter
80k capital at 20% per month
20k capital at 20% per week
5k capital at 20% per day

For 20% per month you need to use algos, processes, methodology which cost $100,000s to create, no one on here will have done that, the past week I was trading a new $20k algo which generated 20% per day and compounded 200% for the week on a smaller account, it was hard work even with the algos.

However the cost of creating that algo was $100,000s and more, your profits are directly proportionate to the amount of time, effort, and capital you spend, for example if you spent $40k for a system you should within one year be able to target $150k to $200k/yr on $80k capital (per month).

If you spend $400 in theory you should be able to target $1.5k to $2k per year in a year, but the markets don’t work that way, money is designed to make money so you will be lucky to generate $150-$200, most don’t, this is just how it works, anyone who disagrees never made the reference numbers per year.

If you can consistently make 1-2% per month you have beaten more than 95% of all other traders.


I was replying to @this_is_ando’s post about Chinese Proverb.

Also, I said “technical training school”, NOT TRADING. You just assumed TRADING. :upside_down_face:


that was about two decades ago and i moved on. i am doing just fine today.


trading, especially forex, is not for unemployed,

you just keep assuming, don’t you? :upside_down_face:

Hi uriki,

I’ve been trading Forex for decades mainly as a hobby (like chess and other games that involve pattern recognition and strategy), never very good at it and still not, but (for the last few years) “consistently profitable”, which is the holy grail of trading for some.

I wasn’t one of the 90-95% who “fail” only because I was never forced to quit (e.g., by betting more than I could afford to lose) and never chose to quit.

My youngest son and I developed a number of reasonably successful bots (automated trading programs) over the years (versus 100’s of failures) and while he still uses them–apparently profitably–a bot is only as good as its programmer/knowledge engineer, in general misses a lot of nuance, and it’s nuance of price pattern that makes it interesting to me as much as making money.

For what it’s worth, psychologically now I think of my trading account no differently that any other foreign currency account with the important exception that it’s subject to margin calls if trades are open :-). In either case I don’t lose sleep worrying about it, but with the trading account may get out of bed in the middle of the night to search charts for evidence of some nuance.

If it helps, in terms of execution my account is not subject to FIFO regulations–huge advantange, worth an offshore account if you live in the U.S.A.–so tend to have a number of long and short positions open simultaneously, total position size in either direction biased in favour of any trend, equal in size or biased to earn net positive swap when nothing is happening–better interest than a bank pays, and with open positions the account is somewhat less likely to be sucked into a black hole in a black swan event.

Entries and targets are based on “best trading practice” involving a couple of basic lagging indicators (Stochastics, MACD), a few informative but untradeable indicators my son and I developed and potentially leading indicators including divergence derived from Stochastics and MACD, support and resistance and Tim Morge’s expanded notion of Median Lines (“Pitch Forks”). No stops to be sacrificed like pawns since simultaneous long and short positions tend to dampen the effect of adverse excursions.

Conceptually I think of the market as a pseudo random walk–pink noise (1/frequency power spectrum)–which is the origin of the phrase “fat tails” in trading and the notion that “the trend is your friend–until the end”. It has to be traded accordingly.

My trading worldview can summed up in two quotes:

Keynes: “[If you bet too big] The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

(Probably) Jesse Livermore: “Price fluctuates.”



The short answer yes, you can.

The learning curve for forex does not take much. Learn how much your pip is worth. Learn some simple trading technique and how to read the the charts (time frames).

No fancy trading techniques either.

This a quick response. Any questions feel free to ask me.


"forex, is not for unemployed’
Any reason why?

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Because you don’t have the capital to trade with (unless you do).

I think most of the traders lose because they make rough decision and there is no valid reasons to support their decision.

I agree with that, but why they do that is the real question. Why do they make decisions for which they have no justification?

There are various reasons why a large percentage of traders may lose money:
The first is a lack of education and experience, and the second is a lack of risk management.

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Also add emotional management to that list bro…

Yes, that is a crucial factor that should be considered, but it’s occasionally ignored by traders.

Success in trading is possible for determined individuals with hard work and learning, regardless of background. Be patient, focus on improvement, and manage your expectations. Good luck!

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The chances of consistent success are very low there maybe times when you win big and I think its a good time to invest in something else. Odds are in the end you will lose more money. The stats dont lie

There is a low probability of making much money in anything. So before rejecting trading you should be able to suggest something better please…

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That’s the best answer ever !!
I wouldn’t answer better.
That’s true, is there anything out there we can make load of money with high probability? Don’t see much

I’m convinced that with great continuing education, patience, self control and high dose of realism we can make money in trading, but never thought that we can get rich with.
That’s either not my goal , for the following years, my goal isn’t to make money but not losing while enjoying the thrill of trading.

Thank you , that’s very cheerful