Choosing A currency pair based on fundamentals

I posted a live commentary on Euro news this past week - long story short - the EU27 leaders began a meet that was to finish lat Friday - purpose to agree a fix, over the next 30 years, to the economic damage to EU caused by covid.

Some weeks ago France and Germany mooted the idea of a fund - immediately the market took note and the Euro climbed - these 2 are the powerhouse of EU so carried some weight.

Long story short, they were still talking Sat, and then incredibly still at it on Sunday.

By that time the writing was on the wall, no agreement and they would have departed long since.

So on Monday morning the market started to buy Euro - and there was lots of time - the notion that this was all priced in is silly - see my comments as the week passed.

Edit; moral of the story - fundamentals is not some secret sauce - most often it’s just plain common sense.

1 Like