This weekend, over at JSeymour’s trading journal - I discussed my plan of action for USDCAD.
I don’t want to rehash all of that here, but basically I decided that I will exit the trade unless I see a strong bearish move today at market open (since my trade is already positive, if it is bearish - I figure I will let it run). Here’s a link if you’re interested in continuity of the discussion to understand my thinking:
Even if it were, EURUSD is like what 60% weight on that index? I don’t really use it much…
Oops! I’ve been wondering, so I tried not to use any pronouns. Guess that one slipped out! Well, now I know…
No worries, I get that a lot with my first name being Jesse… 
What as in Jesse Livermore ? - That’s a great place to start - but he committed suicide when he was “In control” and didn’t have the Adrenaline rush any more - “reminiscences of a stock operator” - much like “BUZZY SWARTZ” you might not “Like” him very much - but who cares ?
Wanted to share this gem: All credits to Clint, who has been here helping traders for years…
Well guys, what to do about this USDCAD trade? I still feel that it’s bearish, and I’m in the black on it - so I feel like sticking it out until it gives me signs of turning north. That two candle pattern that I circled (bull candle followed by bear candle - same size) often portends that a nice move is about to happen. We’ll see…
Alright, so update on the trades. USDCAD moved up last night and hit my stoploss (which was moved in to positive territory - so not a loss), still not what I was hoping for. Definitely could have done better on this trade if I had set a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. I was attempting to capitalize on a downtrend by pyramiding my trades - but this trend was not stable and price moved against me. With this in mind, I also closed out my USDJPY trades. I feel like a fresh start, and although I have seen the pyramid trading idea turn small accounts into large accounts relatively fast - you do need a solid trend going to make that happen. So, for now back to the 1:3 (or more) risk reward approach.
As of Friday, my account was down 4.4%, and today after closing out these three positive trades it was up 8.9% - for an overall net increase of 4.6%. Here is a screen shot of how those trades played out:
USDJPY
USDCAD
[quote=“cndlstckchic, post:54, topic:116648”]
still not what I was hoping for. Definitely could have done better on this trade [/quote]
Yet another important issue that you raise here, CC, albeit somewhat indirectly.
Many forget, or maybe don’t at first realise, that just getting the direction right is not the only factor in trading, in fact it is only one of many.
Pyramiding may be one way of gaining a big boost out of a trade, whereas others may choose to enter with a large position and scale out as the price moves. Some build a position as the price moves with them, other add as the price goes against them. All these alternatives may go right or horribly wrong. It all depends on whether we call the market right or not. These are all based, not on when the move starts, but how long it continues for - and that is impossible to know beforehand. But there are sometimes signs that things are maybe not going according to anticipation that should always raise a red flag.
Optimising our results depends perhaps far more on our exit strategy than on our entry point. Risk management may give us provisional levels for target and stop levels but these, of course, should always be refined to the nearest logical levels based on our chart readings.
But actual position management, especially exit strategy, is maybe the hardest area to control, but makes all the difference in terms of P/L.
Or what do you think?
I absolutely agree. To be honest, this is not the 1st time that I have encountered this problem, lol…I’m guilty of trying to get the most that I can out of a trade and sometimes that leads me to holding on longer than I should.
That thread by @Clint that I recently posted above discusses this issue as well.
Shhhhhhhh, it’s a secret. But this is a rangy market right now, very hard to pyramid 40 pips, if you add at lets say 32, well its only 8. You know that in true pyramiding you use only your current profit to pay the margin for another position, just in case, it might help. Oh did I mention it is a rangy market and trend traders will be hacked to pieces.
The Ever Playing The Ranges VIPER
Not to be argumentive Viper, but that seems like a blanket statement. On what time frame and what pairs are ranging? Surely not all of them. For example the USDJPY trade that I just got out of is clearly making lower highs and lower lows…
Well, nearly.
Your sequence went a bit wobbly for 6 weeks in the middle there which would have spoiled your cycle for a while.
Hi no worries, but, it is my observation that you are using a textbook definition of trend, and trying to shoehorn recent price action into that definition. On your chart, 10/02/16 - 12/25/16 is a classic, swing traders trend, you can Pyramid it, and you can even let it get a little old and still make a profit.
However since ummmm, lets call it the second week of Jan 2017, it moved into a downward sloping channel, it’s not really sloping it is more like slumping, with a massive amount of chop in between. The chop can be seen by the long tails and wicks, when you see that on this fractal it is chop.
So if one were to draw some lines on this, tops and bottoms, and since it is kind of slumping down, you take shorts on the high side, you could probably preset them, and leave the longs alone. Right now one would be 2 weeks late to enter a swing short.
Oh one more thing, draw a level at the Dec top and the Aug bottom and I think you will find that the price has been floating up and down around the mean of the multi week high and low.
The Ever Enlightened VIPER
Well Done C.
The Ever Tipping The Hat VIPER
While I am not disagreeing that this particular trend on the weekly chart was not “perfect”, it is impossible to find the perfect trend - if you zoom in to smaller and smaller time frames you’re going to find exceptions within the dominant trend. @TradeViper, I am sure that there is validity to what you are saying, but I have not yet had time to investigate your methods and examples. Tomorrow while the kids are at school, I will try to give it a shot. I need “quiet” to learn new concepts, and though I may be able to put up a post or two with kids underfeet - that is no time to learn. My reality is trying to learn, trying to make good decisions, trying to make profit, in between doing homework with kids, cooking meals, cleaning, etc. And on the days I don’t have them, I work 12 hours + commute.
My mentor pointed out this trade (although he is more disciplined than I and probably won’t enter it unless it gets a 50% retracement), but I agree with the overall assessment and I decided to take it. Sell on EurAud. Target 1:2 minimum. Will try to get 1:3 or more, but I got in to this trade late and it didn’t retrace back to the 50% point. (At least not yet, and I looked at the hourly and 4hr charts, in my opinion it doesn’t look like it will make it back up that far due to bearish pressure). This is one of those trades I mentioned keeping an eye on last Friday, and it took off. Wish I could have had a better entry, but still feel pretty confident about getting a decent move off of it. We’ll see what happens…
Oh rats, now I feel kinda bad and won’t sleep toninght, seriously, CC, I’m sorry and did not intend to cause any disturbance, or hard feelings, or irritation. Now with that having been said you really don’t have to respond until you have the time etc, really you don’t have to respond at all hehehehehe. I’m not Professor VIPER in the movie, “The Trading Chase”, just a guy trying to help.
Please don’t think I am trying to convince you, or that you have change anything. The whole point of my posts was to save you money, and try to get you to hit the brakes a bit and consider that just maybe following a long trending plan might not be the best way at this time.
The Ever Chow For Now VIPER
No worries, that’s not what I meant at all. I am just saying that I would like to fully consider and take in what you’re saying, but I need the free time to focus - and that is in short supply.
Saw this trade possibility on another forum, what say you all? Broken trendline on daily chart, at resistance…looks promising to me. I’m thinking of entering if it breaks the low of that bull candle from yesterday.
UPDATE: actually, if it breaks the low AND comes back up and retests the support as resistance, then I would look for a signal.
