Hello again (bet you all thought I’d given up and lost hey)?
No such luck!
For the past week or so I have started taking note of the various upcoming news events etc. etc. and been watching what happens at the time of these events - quite fascinating actually - to watch those red or blue candles streak across my trading platform within seconds of a news event.
Anyway - I am battling to understand or interpret something and I would just like some comments (won’t hold anyone responsible for the outcome - I promise):
I refer in particular to the following events:
Nonfarm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (both affecting USD)
Nonfarm Employment Change - expected higher - 135k (February - 97k)
Should have positive effect on USD if forecast is correct - right?
Unemployment Rate - expected higher - 4.6% (February - 4.5%)
Should have negative effect on USD if forecast is correct - right?
Already - there is a conflict which I don’t understand!
Add to that the fact that on Thursday Unemployment Claims in the US went from 310k to 321k and you have three forecasts that conflict with each other - am I right?
I mean how can the number of Unemployment Claims rise i.e. more unemployed people in the US BUT the Nonfarm Employment Change is also forecast higher i.e. more jobs available?
I really don’t understand and I would really like to know how to interpret things like this.
I mean - does this mean that there are more and more jobs being created in the US but more and more people don’t want to work or what???
The above is not meant to knock the people of the US - I just really want to understand how these analysts (the same analysts by the way) can arrive at conflicting conclusions within the same week?
I have five short positions open (GBPUSD and EURUSD) waiting for these news events - my logic being that because the number of Unemployment Claims was substantially up the Nonfarm Employment Change should be lower than expected and the USD should weaken and therefore the GBP and EUR should be stronger against the USD blah, blah, blah.
Please - this stuff is really f*****g with my mind!!!