Commodities Hold Firm with Fed Turmoil 08.26.2025
Commodities traded with heightened volatility on Tuesday as Trump’s move against Fed Governor Lisa Cook rattled markets, fueling demand for gold and silver on fears over central bank independence and renewed rate-cut bets. Oil prices steadied after Monday’s surge, with traders weighing Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets and Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on Chinese goods. Attention now turns to U.S. economic data later this week, which could set the tone for the next move in dollar-driven commodities.
- Gold: Touched a two-week high near $3,385 as Fed concerns lifted demand; resistance at $3,385, support at $3,346.
- Silver: Stayed strong around $38.80, supported by easing expectations and strong industrial demand; resistance at $39.01, support at $38.24.
- Oil: Brent cooled to $68/bbl after supply-driven gains, with geopolitical risks and tariff talks keeping the market on edge; resistance at $69.10, support at $66.90.
Gold and Silver Ease, Oil Steady (08.27.2025)
Commodities traded mixed on Wednesday as tensions between the White House and Fed drove sentiment. Gold and silver eased on profit-taking but stayed supported by demand, while oil steadied after a sharp drop, with traders eyeing U.S. tariffs on India and renewed strikes in the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Fell 0.56% to $3,374. Resistance at $3,393, support at $3,351. Ongoing Fed dispute kept downside limited.
- Silver (XAG/USD): Down 0.43% to $38.44. Resistance at $39.00, support at $38.25. Industrial demand supported prices.
- Brent Crude Oil: Up 0.08% to $67.27. Resistance at $68.40, support at $65.50. Steady as markets assess U.S. tariffs on India and Russian infrastructure strikes.
War Tensions Strain Commodities (08.28.2025)
Political tensions around the Fed, new U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, and continued strikes on energy sites in the Russia-Ukraine conflict shaped commodity moves this week. A stronger dollar and expectations of a September rate cut added to the mix, leaving gold, silver, and oil trading in a tight but volatile range ahead of U.S. inflation data.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Gold slipped to $3,390, easing from a three-week peak near $3,400 as profit-taking and a firmer dollar weighed.
- Silver (XAG/USD): Silver held close to $38.7 per ounce, supported by Fed rate-cut bets and steady industrial demand, even as the dollar strengthened.
- Brent Crude Oil: Brent steadied around $67.0 per barrel, pressured by softer fuel demand but supported by U.S. tariffs on India and war-related supply risks.
Gold Rallies on Safe-Haven Demand; Silver Hits 2011 High
Precious metals surged at the start of the week as risk-off sentiment lifted gold and silver, with silver breaking above $40 for the first time since 2011. A U.S. court ruling against Trump’s tariffs added to volatility, while weak equities and dovish Fed signals supported demand. Brent crude, however, extended losses on supply concerns and fading seasonal demand.
Key Levels and Moves
- Gold (XAU/USD): Rose toward $3,480, its highest in five months. Resistance at $3,480; support at $3,400.
- Silver (XAG/USD): Jumped above $40, the highest since 2011, on Fed cut bets and solar demand. Resistance at $40.80; support at $39.00.
- Brent Crude: Fell to $67.20 as supply worries and weaker demand weighed. Resistance at $68.24; support at $66.85.
Silver Tops $40 on Solar Demand (09.02.2025)
Commodity markets opened the week on a strong note with renewed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing political tensions, and supply risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Dollar weakness kept demand alive, while energy markets balanced concerns about disrupted flows against expectations of oversupply.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Gold extended its rally to a record $3,508 before easing to $3,495, supported by firm expectations of a September Fed cut. Tariff disputes and Fed independence concerns added to safe-haven inflows.
- Silver (XAG/USD): Silver surged 2% to trade above $40.60, marking its highest level since 2011. Industrial demand was supported by China’s 70% jump in solar panel exports, alongside Fed easing bets.
- Brent Crude Oil: Brent climbed above $68.40 after Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites and talk of stricter sanctions. Traders also watch India’s response to U.S. pressure over Russian imports.
Gold resistance stands at $3,520, with support at $3,470.
| R1: 3520 |
S1: 3470 |
| R2: 3580 |
S2: 3400 |
| R3: 3640 |
S3: 3320 |
Resistance is at $41, with support at $39.80
| R1: 41.00 |
S1: 39.80 |
| R2: 41.75 |
S2: 38.00 |
| R3: 42.50 |
S3: 37.25 |
Oil Balances Disruptions and Demand Fears
Precious metals held near multi-year highs as expectations of a September Fed rate cut kept the dollar in check, while surging global bond yields and renewed fiscal worries in Europe added to safe-haven appetite. Sanctions on Iranian oil trade and fresh disruptions in Russia’s refining sector supported prices, though demand concerns continue to linger before the release of the U.S. labor market data.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Extended its rally to a fresh record at $3,546 before easing, supported by Fed cut bets and geopolitical frictions. Gains remain limited by dollar strength and caution ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.
- Silver (XAG/USD): Consolidated near $40.7 after a sharp 2% jump in the prior session, its highest level since 2011. A dovish Fed outlook continues to support demand.
- Brent Crude Oil: Held above $68.9 per barrel with U.S. sanctions on Iranian-linked shipments and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries that disrupted about 17% of capacity.
Gold Hits Record High Ahead of US Jobs Data
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its two-week rally, reaching a fresh record near $3,546 during Wednesday’s Asian session. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month and ongoing trade uncertainty supported demand for the safe-haven asset. Gains were limited as a stronger U.S. dollar, driven by weakness in the British pound and Japanese yen, restrained further momentum. Overbought technical conditions and caution ahead of Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report also kept investors cautious, with the data expected to shape the Fed’s policy outlook.
| R1: 3550 |
S1: 3497 |
| R2: 3590 |
S2: 3455 |
| R3: 3640 |
S3: 3400 |
Silver Consolidates After Reaching 14-Year Peak
Silver (XAG/USD) eased slightly from the $41.00 mark, a 14-year high touched in Wednesday’s Asian session, and now trades near $40.70, down 0.5% on the day. Overbought RSI levels prompted some profit-taking, though the downside looks limited. The break above last year’s highs and the key $40.00 threshold has strengthened bullish momentum, with any pullbacks likely to be viewed as new buying opportunities.
| R1: 41.25 |
S1: 39.50 |
| R2: 42.30 |
S2: 39.00 |
| R3: 43.65 |
S3: 38.20 |
Metals Pause, Oil Slips on OPEC+ Talk
Precious metals eased as traders awaited key U.S. labor data and Fed policy signals. Gold consolidated just below record highs after its longest rally since March, while silver slipped from 14-year peaks but held strong on rate cut bets. Brent crude extended declines on reports that OPEC+ may raise output to regain market share.
Key Levels and Moves
- Gold (XAU/USD): Dipped to $3,540, consolidating near highs. Resistance at $3,555; support at $3,510.
- Silver (XAG/USD): Pulled back 1% to $40.50 after fresh 14-year highs. Resistance at $41.30; support at $40.20.
- Brent Crude: Fell toward $66.90 on OPEC+ output hike speculation. Resistance at $69.50; support at $66.35.
BRENT
Brent crude futures slipped toward $66.90 per barrel on Thursday, extending a 2.2% decline from the prior session. Prices weakened on concerns that OPEC+ may raise output at its upcoming policy meeting. The group is reportedly considering reversing 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts, equivalent to about 1.6% of global demand, in an effort to recapture market share.
GOLD
Gold dipped to around $3,540/oz on Thursday, pausing its longest rally since March but staying near record highs. Safehaven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts kept the metal supported, while uncertainty over tariffs, Fed independence, and fiscal pressures added extra backing.
| R1: 3555 |
S1: 3510 |
| R2: 3580 |
S2: 3490 |
| R3: 3640 |
S3: 3470 |
SILVER
Silver retreated 1% to $40.50 per ounce ahead of key US labor data. Even so, the outlook stayed firm with support from Fed rate cut expectations, safe-haven demand, and industrial buying from China’s solar sector. Precious metals have surged in recent weeks, with markets now pricing in nearly a 98% probability of a 25 bps cut this month.
| R1: 41.30 |
S1: 40.20 |
| R2: 42.50 |
S2: 39.75 |
| R3: 43.65 |
S3: 39.00 |
Dollar Weakness Fuels Metals Rally
With the CME FedWatch tool now showing nearly a 100% probability of a 25 bps move, demand and monetary easing prospects continued to drive metals higher, while energy markets remained under pressure from oversupply concerns.
XAUUSD
Gold Holds Near Record Highs Ahead of NFP
Gold edged higher in Friday’s Asian session, extending its rebound from $3,500 and staying near record highs. The metal is supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts starting in September and trade-related safe-haven demand, though gains are capped by firm equities and overbought conditions. Traders await the U.S. NFP report for fresh direction on policy and gold’s outlook.
| R1: 3585 |
S1: 3500 |
| R2: 3635 |
S2: 3460 |
| R3: 3670 |
S3: 3405 |
XAGUSD
Silver Rises Ahead of U.S. NFP Report
Silver edged up to $40.85 in Friday’s Asian session, supported by a weaker dollar and stronger Fed cut bets. Softer U.S. data, including higher jobless claims and weak ADP payrolls, signaled a cooling labor market and increasing demand for non-yielding assets. Investors now await the U.S. NFP report for further policy clues.
| R1: 41.30 |
S1: 40.20 |
| R2: 42.50 |
S2: 39.75 |
| R3: 43.65 |
S3: 39.00 |
BRENT
Brent crude slipped toward $66.80 per barrel, logging a third straight session of declines. Rising output from both OPEC+ and U.S. shale drillers has renewed fears of a global surplus.
Resistance 1: $69.50
Support 1: $65.35
