Commodity Technical Analysis By CSFX

Commercial Content Analysts
1

Daily Commodity Analysis – Global uncertainty hits WTI, Natural Gas, Gold, Copper.

Introduction

WTI crude oil faces indecision below $74.00, struggling to extend a two-day uptrend amid mixed fundamentals. Positive demand outlook and Middle East supply worries offer support. Natural gas futures decline for a third day due to warmer weather forecasts and smaller-than-expected withdrawals. Gold remains subdued amidst uncertainty over Fed rate cuts and elevated US bond yields. Copper prices feel the pressure from China’s economic weakness, adding to concerns about softened demand in 2024, especially in the electric vehicle sector. Market movements hinge on global economic dynamics and geopolitical tensions.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI Lacks Firm Intraday Direction, Remains Below $74.00 Mark Amid Mixed Fundamental Cues.

WTI Oil prices struggle to attract follow-through buying and consolidate during the Asian session on Friday. Optimistic demand forecasts and concerns over disruptions in Middle East supplies lend support to Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to build on a two-day-old uptrend and oscillate in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity remains below the $74.00/barrel mark, though remains on track to register modest weekly gains in the wake of optimistic demand forecasts. Meanwhile, concerns over disruptions in Middle East supplies remained in play as the US-led forces continue to clash with the Iran-backed Houthi group in the Red Sea.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×339 78.5 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 72.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 72.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 72.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 72.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 73.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.25 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 74.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 75.38 R2 : 77.52
  • S1 : 68.47 S2 : 66.33

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 73.81 | Take Profit : 76.40 | Stop Loss : 72.36

NATURAL GAS

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2

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas plunge, gold, copper struggle.

Introduction

Oil prices decline on Monday as global economic concerns weigh on the demand outlook, overshadowing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude futures slip to $73.13 a barrel, reflecting prevailing market sentiment. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummet 24% amid warmer weather forecasts. Gold faces pressure from expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, while copper edges lower due to weak economic outlook in China, indicated by underwhelming GDP figures and limited policy support from the People’s Bank of China.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil Down As Economic Headwinds Weigh On Demand Outlook.

Oil prices lost more ground on Monday as economic headwinds pressured the global oil demand outlook and offset geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and an attack on a Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend. The front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, for February delivery, were down 28 cents to $73.13 a barrel with the contract set to expire later on Monday. The more active March WTI contract was at $73.04 a barrel, down 21 cents. This morning’s subdued re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.16 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.11 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.94 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 63.41 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 77.32 | Take Profit : 74.65 | Stop Loss : 79.29

NATURAL GAS

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3

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas up, oil falters, Silver shines; Copper eyes China.

Introduction

U.S. natural gas futures break a six-session losing streak, rising as weather forecasts indicate warmer temperatures through early February. Oil prices fluctuate amid geopolitical tensions, demand concerns, and a stronger dollar. Silver (XAG/USD) shows positive momentum, climbing back above mid-$22.00s. Copper prices, driven by China’s stimulus measures, rebound from a two-month low but face challenges amid persistent economic concerns in the world’s largest copper importer.

Markets In Focus Today – NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Snap Losing Streak.

U.S. natural gas prices stage a late recovery and rise for the first time in six sessions as weather forecasts continue to show warmer temperatures through early February. “While more winter weather is likely to show up, once we get February on the calendar, cold weather forecasts become less and less of a factor for prices,” says Analyst in a note. The above-average storage draws expected for last week and this week would need to continue next month to lift prices significantly, “and the probability of such an occurrence is low.

Technical Overview With Chart :

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Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.457 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.595 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.812 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.431 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.595 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.812 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.76 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 84.44 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.610 R2 : 2.858
  • S1 : 2.392 S2 : 2.225

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.589 | Take Profit: 2.298 | Stop Loss: 2.792

BRENT CRUDE OIL

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4

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold uncertain pre-GDP, copper soars on China stimulus, oil rallies.

Introduction

Gold prices face volatility ahead of GDP data, grappling with steep losses as U.S. economic cues and interest rate uncertainties deter traders. Meanwhile, copper gains momentum following China’s additional stimulus measures. Gold declined 0.7% on Wednesday amid anticipation of crucial U.S. GDP and inflation data, with growing expectations of a delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Copper, boosted by China’s reserve requirement ratio cut, sits at a three-week high. Oil prices rise on a significant U.S. crude stock draw and optimism from China’s stimulus actions. Natural gas experiences a short-covering rally, influenced by oversold conditions and domestic supply-demand factors.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold Prices Were Skittish Before GDP Data.

Gold prices nursed steep losses on Thursday as anticipation of a barrage of U.S. economic and interest rate cues kept traders averse to the yellow metal, while copper sat on strong gains this week following more stimulus measures from China. Bullion prices had fallen 0.7% on Wednesday, largely disregarding some weakness in the dollar as anticipation of key U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation data brewed more uncertainty over interest rates. The yellow metal was battered by increasing bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later, instead of earlier this year.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×343 72.6 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2024.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2029.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2019.58 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2026.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2034.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2029.01 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.54 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 27.68 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2020.02 | Take Profit: 1988.37 | Stop Loss: 2038.34

COPPER

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5

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, Copper rallies, Oil soars, Gas falters.

Introduction

Gold (XAU/USD) closes the week with a slight dip, hovering just above $2,018, marking a 0.55% weekly loss. Key indicators show subdued buying momentum, reflecting a pause after December’s rally. Meanwhile, the USD’s recovery, driven by changing bets on the Federal Reserve, exerts downward pressure. Copper prices ease, but a strong week is expected amid China optimism. Oil settles at an eight-week high, fueled by robust U.S. economic growth and Chinese stimulus, while natural gas faces declines due to storage dynamics, production fluctuations, and lighter demand forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD Trades Mildly Lower And Closes A Losing Week After US PCE Figures.

The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback. Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December’s rally. On Friday’s session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak. In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×342 71 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2024.17 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2028.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2019.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2024.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2032.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2029.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.09 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 25.67 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2023.48 | Take Profit: 1984.79 | Stop Loss: 2049.27

COPPER

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6

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.

Introduction

“As Gold struggles near a two-month low, the stronger-than-expected US CPI data diminishes hopes of a Fed rate cut, keeping the precious metal below $2,000. Meanwhile, copper faces pressure from a stronger dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth, exacerbated by a massive deposit discovery in Zambia. Oil prices rise on positive demand forecasts, while natural gas languishes due to warmer weather predictions reducing heating demand.”

Markets In Focus Today – Gold

Gold Price Struggles Near Two-Month Low As Hot US CPI Temper Fed Rate Cut Bets.

Gold price hits a fresh two-month low amid bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The expectations were reaffirmed by the stronger-than-expected US CPI released on Tuesday. A softer risk tone lends support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit any further losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to attract buyers and languishes below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low through the early European session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation report released on Tuesday reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal, though a combination of factors lends some support and helps limit the downside.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×342 73.8 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2017.0634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2023.9850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2022.0886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2025.0466 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2025.6890 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2032.2712 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.7932 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator : 8.4879 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
  • S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1994.62 | Take Profit: 1972.58 | Stop Loss: 2009.82

COPPER

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7

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil dives, corn lows, gold reacts to bonds.

Introduction

WTI faces renewed selling pressure, hovering around $76.00 amid a second consecutive day of retreats. Despite geopolitical risks, a surge in US inventories weighs on oil prices, while OPEC’s positive global demand outlook fails to provide support. In the corn market, futures hit new lows, influenced by a red trading session and ethanol-related data. Gold prices tick higher due to sliding US bond yields and geopolitical tensions, while Silver stabilizes above $22, awaiting guidance from US Retail Sales data. Federal Reserve comments suggest a hesitant stance on rate cuts, impacting precious metals.

Markets In Focus Today – Crude OIL

WTI Retreats Further From The Monthly Peak And Seems Vulnerable Near The $76.00 Mark.

WTI remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Thursday. A spike in US inventories overshadows geopolitical risks and weighs on Oil prices. The OPEC sees a rise in global demand in 2024, and 2025, albeit fails to lend support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the overnight pullback from the vicinity of mid-$78.00s, or a fresh monthly peak and drift lower for the second successive day on Thursday. The commodity hovers around the $76.00 mark during the Asian session and remains well within the striking distance of the weekly low touched on Monday.

Technical Overview With Chart :

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Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 75.9666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 75.3486 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.1257 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 75.2912 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 75.5299 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 73.5075 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.0784 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 68.9884 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy : 75.62 | Take Profit: 78.29 | Stop Loss: 74.13

CORN

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8

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold highs, silver shines, oil soars.

Introduction

Gold, represented by XAU/USD, surged to a three-day high at $2015 amid rising inflation concerns and signals from the Federal Reserve. The softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields contribute to the precious metal’s appeal. Meanwhile, silver resiliently heads for a positive weekly close, distinguishing itself from gold’s projected negative week-end. In the energy sector, oil prices climb on Middle East tensions, while Natural Gas faces sustained downward pressure with potential implications for long-term pricing. The US Dollar Index strengthens with favorable Producer Price Index (PPI) outcomes.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD Hits Three-Day High Amid Inflation Concerns, Fed’s Policy Signals.

Gold hits $2015, benefiting from a softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields amid persistent inflation signs PPI and Core PPI surpass forecasts, indicating ongoing inflation and complicating the Fed’s targets. Hints of future rate cuts from Fed officials sway market outlook, enhancing gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against policy ambiguity. Gold price extended its gains for two straight days, hitting a three-day high at $2015 as the Greenback tumbled, despite US Treasury yields rising. US economic data suggests inflation is stickier than expected, though Federal Reserve’s officials opened the door to ease policy.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×342 74.5 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2014.7705 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2021.4628 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2021.1641 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2017.6327 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2024.0798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2032.0209 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.9342 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 43.41 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
  • S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2016.45 | Take Profit: 2048.10 | Stop Loss: 1997.69

SILVER

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9

Gold Prices Stabilize and Silver Consolidates.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold prices stabilize as traders anticipate FOMC meeting.
  • Silver consolidates near $30 amid bearish technical indicators.
  • Crude oil eyes upside despite supply-driven geopolitical risks.
  • Natural gas faces pressure approaching critical $3.08 support.

INTRODUCTION

Gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas markets are navigating mixed signals as investors weigh geopolitical tensions, policy outlooks, and technical levels. While gold and silver demonstrate resilience amid cautious sentiment, oil prices are buoyed by potential supply risks, and natural gas faces bearish pressure near critical technical thresholds.

Gold Prices Maintain Stability Above $2,650

Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing modest intraday gains, holding above $2,650 as mixed signals dominate the market. The precious metal recovered from a one-week low on Monday and is trading near $2,655. Support for gold is driven by a slight decline in US Treasury yields, which tempers US Dollar strength, and ongoing geopolitical risks that boost its safe-haven appeal. However, the Federal Reserve’s potential slowdown in rate cuts, due to stalled progress in reducing inflation toward the 2% target, creates headwinds for gold.

Market participants are cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set to begin Tuesday, leading to limited strong follow-through buying. For now, gold’s retracement from its recent one-month high appears to have paused.

Technical Analysis of Gold

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Moving Averages:

  • Exponential:
    • MA 10: 2662.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 20: 2658.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 50: 2646.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • Simple:
    • MA 10: 2661.24 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 20: 2654.98 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 50: 2670.31 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Indicators:

  • RSI: 49.76 | Buy Zone | Bullish
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 45.23 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance and Support Levels:

  • R1: 2735.87 | R2: 2789.05
  • S1: 2563.71 | S2: 2510.53

Trade Suggestion:

  • Limit Buy: 2654.00
  • Take Profit: 2664.50
  • Stop Loss: 2649.29

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10

Gold Holds Steady and Silver Extends Losses.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold Holds Steady Above $2,640 Ahead of Fed Decision.
  • Silver Extends Losses, Dropping Below $30.50 Support Level.
  • WTI Crude Stabilizes Near $70 Amid Geopolitical Concerns.
  • Natural Gas Falls on Rising Supplies, Warmer Weather Outlook.

INTRODUCTION

Commodity markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. Gold holds steady above $2,640 as safe-haven demand persists, while silver prices extend losses amid bearish technical signals. Meanwhile, WTI stabilizes near $70, and natural gas prices decline due to rising supplies and a warmer weather outlook. This article explores the price action, technical analysis, and key drivers behind these commodity trends.

Gold Holds Steady Above $2,640 Amid Fed Uncertainty

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stable during Tuesday’s early European session, hovering near $2,640. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, which could provide fresh cues on monetary policy direction. Expectations of a less dovish Fed continue to support higher US Treasury yields, strengthening the US Dollar and limiting upside for the non-yielding gold.

However, geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide safe-haven support for gold prices. Markets will also look to US Retail Sales data later today for further insights into economic strength and potential Fed actions.

Gold Technical Analysis:

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  • Moving Averages (Exponential):
    • MA 10: 2658.33 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 20: 2656.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 50: 2646.28 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • Moving Averages (Simple):
    • MA 10: 2660.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 20: 2655.31 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 50: 2670.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.43 | Neutral Zone
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 32.06 | Sell Zone
  • Resistance and Support Levels:
    • R1: 2735.86 | R2: 2789.05
    • S1: 2563.71 | S2: 2510.52

Market Sentiment: Bearish
Trade Suggestion:
Limit Sell: 2649.21 | Take Profit: 2630.85 | Stop Loss: 2661.38

Silver Extends Losses Amid Bearish Technical Signals

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its downward trajectory, dropping for the fourth consecutive session. The price hovers near $30.50 during Tuesday’s Asian session, reflecting sustained selling pressure and bearish technical signals.

The XAG/USD pair has broken below its ascending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a transition from bullish to bearish momentum. Silver now trades below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, further indicating weakness in short-term price action. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Key support levels are seen at the psychological $30.00 mark, followed by a deeper target at $29.65, a three-month low.

Silver Technical Analysis:

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12

Oil Prices Drop and Japanese Gold Prices Slide.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Oil Prices Drop Amid Fed Signals, Demand Concerns.
  • Gold Prices Slide On Dollar Strength And Yields.
  • Natural Gas Gains Amid Strong Demand, Storage Trends.
  • Coffee Prices Reach All-Time High In December 2024.

Introduction

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 934,000 barrels in the second week of December, falling short of market expectations. However, gasoline stocks rose by 2.348 million barrels, contrasting sharply with a substantial drop in distillate fuel stocks. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing weaker economic activity in China and North America.

Oil Prices Drift Lower Amid Fed Jitters and Demand Concerns Oil prices dropped in Asian trading on Friday, heading for weekly losses. Concerns over a hawkish Federal Reserve and a potential slowdown in global demand weighed heavily on crude markets. The stronger U.S. dollar, which surged to a two-year high, further pressured oil prices, making the commodity more expensive for non-dollar holders.

Brent crude futures for February delivery fell 0.5% to $72.49 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 0.5% to $69.07 per barrel.

Technical Overview of Crude Oil:

1080×571 41.7 KB

  • Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
    • MA 10: $69.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 20: $69.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 50: $69.97 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
    • MA 10: $69.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 20: $69.15 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
    • MA 50: $69.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): 45.96 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 52.47 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
  • Resistance Levels: R1: $71.59 | R2: $73.07
  • Support Levels: S1: $66.80 | S2: $65.32

Suggested Trade:

  • Limit Buy: $68.63
  • Take Profit: $65.32
  • Stop Loss: $75.20

Japanese Gold Prices Slide Amid Dollar Strength

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13

Gold Climbs Above $2,630 and WTI Oil Gains Slightly.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold Climbs Above $2,630 Amid Geopolitical Risks, Limited Gains.
  • Silver Struggles Below $30 Despite Weak US Data.
  • WTI Oil Gains Slightly, Awaits Stronger Bullish Momentum.
  • Natural Gas Soars on Colder Weather, LNG Demand Surge.

INTRODUCTION

Gold prices advanced to a three-day high above $2,630, fueled by safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical risks. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains limited due to counterbalancing factors such as elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a robust U.S. Dollar. Traders are closely monitoring the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for additional market direction.

Technical Overview

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  • Moving Averages (Exponential):

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14

EUR/USD Consolidates and GBP/USD Subdued.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • EUR/USD Consolidates Amid Light Volumes, Focus on Fed.
  • GBP/USD Subdued as Market Awaits Key Economic Data.
  • USD/JPY Bullish Tone Supported by Fed’s Hawkish Stance.
  • AUD/USD Declines, Focus Shifts to RBA Minutes.

INTRODUCTION

Currency markets kicked off the week cautiously, with major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD consolidating amid subdued trading volumes. Investors are focusing on central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical developments to shape near-term price movements.

EUR/USD: Consolidation Amid a Holiday-Shortened Week

The EUR/USD pair remains steady, trading near 1.0440 during Monday’s European session. This consolidation comes as markets prepare for a holiday-shortened week, with Christmas Eve and Boxing Day affecting trading schedules on Wednesday and Thursday.

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD

  • US Dollar Stabilization: After a steep decline on Friday due to weaker-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, the US Dollar (USD) has stabilized. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, rose by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.9% forecast. This has raised uncertainties about the Fed’s potential rate-cut cycle in 2025.
  • Economic Calendar: Monday’s schedule is light, with investors turning their attention to Tuesday’s release of US Durable Goods Orders for November, expected to show a 0.4% decline after a 0.3% rise in October.

Technical Overview

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  • Moving Averages:
    • Exponential: MA10 (1.0446), MA20 (1.0491), MA50 (1.0619) – All indicating bearish momentum.
    • Simple: MA10 (1.0454), MA20 (1.0496), MA50 (1.0633) – Negative crossover confirming bearish trends.
  • Indicators:
    • RSI: 38.87 (Sell Zone)
    • Stochastic Oscillator: 19.35 (Neutral)
  • Key Levels:
    • Resistance: R1 (1.0846), R2 (1.0988)
    • Support: S1 (1.0384), S2 (1.0242)

Trade Suggestion

Limit Sell: 1.0460 | Take Profit: 1.0344 | Stop Loss: 1.0548

GBP/USD: Range-Bound with Limited Upside Potential

15

Gold Futures Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty.

KEY HIGHLGHTS

  • Gold Futures Rise on Geopolitical Tensions, Economic Uncertainty
  • Crude Oil Prices Hold Near Two-Month Highs
  • Natural Gas Gains Ahead of EIA Storage Report
  • Cotton Futures Start 2025 With Modest Gains

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between gold and the US dollar often exhibits an inverse trend. When the dollar strengthens, gold prices typically weaken, and vice versa. This dynamic arises because gold is priced in US dollars, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar is strong. Additionally, gold and the US dollar are both perceived as safe-haven assets, with investor preferences shifting between them depending on prevailing economic conditions.

Gold Analysis: Futures Gain Amid Market Concerns

Gold futures held steady, closing at $2,667.80 per troy ounce, and showed a 0.5% weekly increase due to heightened safe-haven demand. This uptick is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Market analysts have highlighted concerns over U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump, particularly regarding international trade, tariffs, and protectionist measures.

Technical Overview

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  • Exponential Moving Averages:
    • MA 10: 2634.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 20: 2635.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 50: 2637.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • Simple Moving Averages:
    • MA 10: 2627.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 20: 2639.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 50: 2655.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • Indicators:
    • RSI: 54.15 | Neutral Zone
    • Stochastic Oscillator: 62.25 | Neutral Zone
  • Resistance Levels: R1: 2699.06 | R2: 2732.79
  • Support Levels: S1: 2589.87 | S2: 2556.14

Trade Suggestion:

  • Limit Buy: 2657.38 | Take Profit: 2732.79 | Stop Loss: 2496.32

Crude Oil Prices Near Two-Month Highs on Positive Market Sentiment

Overview

Crude oil prices reached near two-month highs, supported by optimism around potential policy measures aimed at stimulating economic growth and boosting fuel demand. Brent crude dropped slightly by 0.4% to $75.65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased by 0.3% to $72.90 per barrel. However, market sentiment remains positive amid hopes of economic recovery and policy support.

Technical Overview

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold Retreats and Natural Gas Declines.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold Retreats Amid Strong Dollar and Hawkish Fed.
  • Natural Gas Declines on Warm Weather Forecasts.
  • Oil Gains Supported by Cold Weather, China Stimulus.
  • Coffee Futures Stabilize After Record Highs in 2024.

INTRODUCTION

Gold prices eased back to $2,640 per ounce on Friday, retreating from earlier gains as markets digested hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Meanwhile, new ISM data suggested a rebound in U.S. manufacturing orders and production for December, signaling a potential recovery for the sector. Simultaneously, natural gas prices plunged due to warmer weather forecasts and a smaller-than-expected inventory draw, weighing on heating demand projections.

Gold Analysis: Retreat from Three-Week Highs

Gold prices slipped on Friday, retracting from a three-week high as the dollar strengthened. Spot gold declined 0.6% to $2,641.52 per ounce, with U.S. gold futures settling 0.5% lower at $2,654.70. Despite this pullback, bullion marked a weekly gain of approximately 0.8%, reflecting lingering optimism in the market. The robust dollar, bolstered by expectations of tighter monetary policy, continued to weigh on the metal’s appeal.

Technical Overview:

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Moving Averages:

  • Exponential:
    • MA 10: 2631.39 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 20: 2634.15 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 50: 2636.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • Simple:
    • MA 10: 2625.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 20: 2638.14 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 50: 2655.19 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Indicators:

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.51 | Neutral
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 54.96 | Neutral

Resistance and Support Levels:

  • Resistance: R1: 2699.06 | R2: 2732.79
  • Support: S1: 2589.87 | S2: 2556.14

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy at 2639.42 | Take Profit: 2732.79 | Stop Loss: 2496.32

Natural Gas Analysis: Warmer Weather Weighs on Prices

Natural gas prices plunged on Friday, driven by updated forecasts indicating warmer-than-expected weather across the eastern United States. The milder temperatures are expected to curb heating demand, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a smaller-than-anticipated inventory draw of 116 billion cubic feet for the week of December 27, falling short of expectations for a 128 billion cubic feet decline.

Key Market Drivers:

  • Warmer weather forecasts for mid-January.
  • Lower-48 state dry gas production at 104.9 billion cubic feet/day (-0.3% year-over-year).
  • LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals at 14.7 billion cubic feet/day (+2.1% week-over-week).

Technical Overview:

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold Faces Pressure Amid Stronger USD, Geopolitical Risks.
  • Silver Rallies Above $30, Supported By Haven Demand.
  • Oil Prices Dip On Rising U.S. Inventories.
  • Natural Gas Awaits EIA Report For Direction.

INTRODUCTION

The precious metals and energy markets are navigating key developments this week. Gold faces modest pressure due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), while silver rallies above critical levels on safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are constrained by rising US fuel inventories, and natural gas traders await the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report for market direction. This article focuses on the latest market trends and technical insights to provide traders with actionable strategies.

Gold Under Pressure Amid USD Strength

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are experiencing intraday pressure during Thursday’s Asian session, struggling to extend their recent gains. A stronger USD, bolstered by expectations of slower Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, has dampened demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

However, geopolitical risks and trade war concerns continue to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset. A modest pullback in US Treasury yields has limited further USD gains, capping the downside for gold prices. With the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looming on Friday, investors are adopting a cautious approach. Key speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members later today could provide short-term trading cues.

Technical Overview

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  • Moving Averages (Exponential):
    • MA 10: 2644.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 20: 2640.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
    • MA 50: 2639.30 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): 55.62 | Buy Zone | Bullish
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 87.69 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance Levels:

  • R1: 2699.06
  • R2: 2732.79

Support Levels:

  • S1: 2589.87
  • S2: 2556.14

Trade Suggestion:

  • Limit Buy: 2657.26
  • Take Profit: 2693.66
  • Stop Loss: 2639.46

Silver Rallies Above $30.00 on Safe-Haven Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) continues its upward momentum, trading above $30.00 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. This marks the sixth consecutive day of gains and a three-week high for silver prices.

The metal benefits from safe-haven demand driven by concerns over inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. Strong growth prospects for 2024 have boosted industrial demand for silver, particularly in solar technology, electric vehicles (EVs), and 5G networks. However, long-term US bond yields may limit further upside potential.

Technical Overview

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Gold Holds Firm as Trump’s Tariffs Spark Volatility; WTI Crude Drops on OPEC+ Plans

Gold prices remain steady as market volatility intensifies following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions. Meanwhile, silver continues its upward trajectory, while WTI crude faces selling pressure amid OPEC+ production plans. Natural gas remains above key support levels, signaling strong buyer interest. Investors closely monitor geopolitical and economic developments for further market direction.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold Holds Firm as Tariff Uncertainty Fuels Demand.
  • Silver Gains But Faces Resistance Near Key Levels.
  • WTI Crude Drops Amid OPEC+ Production Increase Concerns.
  • Natural Gas Steady Above Support, Bulls Eye Breakout.

Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Firm Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Gold prices maintain their bullish momentum, trading around $2,910 on Tuesday after gaining over 1% the previous day. The surge follows Trump’s confirmation that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China will proceed as scheduled. Canada and China have announced retaliatory measures, fueling market uncertainty and strengthening gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

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Moving Averages

Exponential:

  • MA 10: 2901.54 | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2883.93 | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2811.78 | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 10: 2913.21 | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2903.32 | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2781.68 | Bullish

Indicators

  • RSI: 59.31 | Buy Zone
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 45.11 | Neutral

Key Levels

  • Resistance: R1: 2932.05 | R2: 2975.46
  • Support: S1: 2791.51 | S2: 2748.10

Market Sentiment: Bullish
Trade Suggestion: Buy Limit: 2900.00 | Take Profit: 2930.80 | Stop Loss: 2880.80

Silver (XAG/USD) Gains but Faces Resistance

Silver prices climb for the second consecutive day, rebounding from a recent four-week low. However, daily chart oscillators indicate caution, suggesting limited upside potential.

Technical Analysis

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