Yeah, I got stopped out early, it’s not easy finding a good entry point that matches my risk-reward ratio
I’ll have to consider my S/L and T/P more serious. I’ll probably narrow down my unit amount to allow a wider S/L and should avoid psychological level points which will match my risk/reward ratio. This will allow my trade to play out more.
With the EUR, the next pip mover will be the Italian Industrial production m/m, 8-pm AUS time, not big compared to the US news coming up.
After it’ll be big news from the USD 12-30AM.
I still see the potential for the EUR to rise, given their fundamentals might be slightly better than the US for the overall trend, but I’ll make my decision after the high impact news from the US that is coming out or make a technical long-term based trade on that idea on Monday.
IF the news from the US is worse than expected, i’d assume EUR/USD will be hitting 1.2080 tonight.
This is backwards. You don’t decide what R:R ratio you want and then slap that on the chart, you work out the R:R ratio the market is offering and compare that to your likely success rate to see if the trade is worth taking.
I’d take a 1R trade with a 90% hit rate all day, for example, but I would never touch a 10R trade with a 2% hit rate.
@Ben1987 because doing it the other way is like you saying to the market THIS IS WHAT I WANT… GIVE IT TO ME
and the market is basically giving you the middle finger and saying I’M GONNA TELL YOU WHAT YOU CAN TAKE, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO TELL ME WHAT YOU WANT
so you need to listen to the market and assess risk and success as acceptable or non acceptable
I consider everything you guys have said serious and I appreciate all your comments, thank you. I’ll definitely get better every week and use your comments to see in another point of view.
Again, it seems, the charts know best! I was quite reluctant to go long, but everything was pointing up and price was very supported on any dips so I shut my eyes and went with it - a quick 40+pips to end the week.
Of course, though, it is not the “charts” that make the moves, it is the majority force of the active participants that do that - and that the lesson why I wanted to post this:
I think chart analysis is important for both technical traders and fundamental traders. If one takes a view on fundamentals, or news trading, whether long term or short term, you cannot move the market yourself in that direction. So you need to “recruit” some helpers! Whilst one cannot actually make others trade with oneself, one can build a chart structure that will confirm if, and more importantly, when, the majority of other participants are doing what you want to do - and then join them.
A technical trader (like me) has it a little easier, we just watch for what the crowd is doing and jump on the same bus…
Although there is a lot of EU bearishness around, the charts were not (yet) reflecting that, in fact, were still showing the opposite - so there was the decision, ready-made, just waiting for the courage to go with it.
So “technicals”: - direction for the technical trader, confirmation for the fundamental trader. A useful tool for both!
I have to Respectfully but STRONGLY DISAGREE with this.
one thing, one really big factor that pushed into Successful trading from trying to get it right was NOT FOLLOWING THE CROWD
if you jump on board with what the majority does (and that is… LOSING MONEY) you will get the same result as they have.
i commonly look at news and what not and i see what the majority believe
and then i go the other way
so to put this in another light
if i think something is going to go LONG (and that’s my decision)
i will watch calenders and news and all that sort of stuff and WHEN THE MAJORITY BELIEVE IT’S GOING SHORT, i jump on the Short train
THE TRAIN THEN TURNS AROUND AND GOES LONG
happens pretty much every time, if not almost every time, works like a charm
so yeah, i have to strongly disagree with jumping on board with the MAJORITY TRAIN
food for thought
Respectfully, @anon81929759, I think all he means is that he doesn’t fight the markets; he aligns his trades with what the markets want to do.
I think we can all agree that the majority of retail traders are only ever going to lose money, but they don’t actually drive significant price action. The major moves are powered by the institutional traders, and they are, by volume, the ‘majority’ that I think @anon46773462 was referring to.
I’m not sure what you mean. You made a number of different trades, and I don’t think I criticized any of them directly; it was your general approach that I felt was leading to your string of losses. You seemed to feel that you had access to all the relevant information, that having access to all the relevant information you could then internalize and digest that information, and that having accessed and internalized all the relevant information you could then predict what tens of thousands of unique market participants were going to do.
Having tried that approach myself, I felt I had a good handle on how successful it was likely to be.
Here, my approach was very methodical. I had a clear trading signal when the volatility levels dropped below a pre-defined level, and I set my entry point, my stop, and my profit target in accordance with my trading plan - you can see how my position lines up exactly with the faint grey lines at the time I set up my order, two bars before the break-out.
Other than knowing that there was no scheduled news on this pair for another 5-6 hours, I ignored fundamentals completely and focused simply on trading the behaviour pattern that I trade.
Of course, that is what discussion is about.
But there is a big difference between what people say they think will happen and what others are actually doing. And that is all that counts when it comes to the pips.
You are welcome to try and outsmart the market on your own but as you see the pips are in my bin!
@Drekieyja
Fair enough
i interpreted what he said in a different way
i interpreted it as he is going in the direction of the majority and follows the trades of what the majority do
Majority obviously meaning - Majority of Retail traders like us
but yes, you are right the Majority by volume are actually institutional.
we agree on that
I actually like the open discussion and you are all free to say whatever.
I just take a more fundamental approach in trading rather than technical analysis.
You could say I might be a minority since most do technical analysis. For me personally, I’ll like to know the weaker economy versus the stronger economy to give myself an upper hand to make my trade.
Not saying I am special, just everyone has their own appeoach they are comfortable with.
When it comes to reading charts it is totally irrelevant who is actually involved. There are no labels where this is retail and this is institutional. There is just a mass of participation and charting tells you in which direction the bulk of that mass i.e. the majority is currently acting. Not talking, not demoing, but physically putting up money.
And even this does not predict the future, only the present. But charting also shows what we all know- that prices do tend to continue in trends. Not always, but enough.
It is certainly not retail that drives prices but nor is it institutional - at least not individually. It is ultimately factors such as the fundamentals of commerce, central bank policies, interest rate developments and shifting geopolitical observations that generate the transfer of funds and risk from one currency home to another. And these transitions do not happen instantaneously, hence trends.
These are not factors that we as retail fx can evaluate as a whole in any other way than by observing the net movements in price that are the cumulative net result of market participation as a whole. Of course, one can have a personal view, but that is all it is and is based on very partial data.
This would be far easier if we did not have the wobbly wiggles of short term speculative trading, but that is a necessary requisite of providing liquidity. Our job is to see the woods and not the individual trees…
Do you know why people say that 90% of trading is psychology? Because you have to recognize when the things that you like, prefer, or are comfortable with, are holding you back. And then you have to ruthlessly eliminate those things you like, prefer, or are comfortable with from your trading. Most people are incapable of doing that.
Nearly all profitable retail traders are technical traders - they recognize the hubris of thinking that they can have an accurate and detailed grasp of the world economy from their breakfast table, and the futility of trying to predict the actions of thousands of unique market participants. But you want to do it the exact opposite way, because that’s what you are comfortable with.
Now, perhaps you genuinely are a special snowflake, and you have a winning fundamentals based strategy that just needs tweaking. But how long are you prepared to keep failing before admitting that you are indulging your personality quirks at the cost of your profitability? Put another way, if this was a trade, where would your stop-loss be? 1 month? 6 months? A year? Your entire trading account?
Most people never confront this question. Of course, most people also fail. Don’t be most people. That would be a waste.
You are certainly right, maybe I need to change some of my approach. However, it’s too early for me to decide if it’s an incorrect way of trading.
Be patient and if I am wrong, I’ll definitely go the different direction.
Thanks for the love
I have only traded with real money for a week, if I change my mind quickly then i will change my mind a lot in the future. I’ll give my approach roughly 2 months. I have decent risk management setup, so some of my capital will be intact
, anyways congrats.
