Competitive Trader Thread!

I am testing an idea with everyone’s thoughts.

Trade plan during new’s event.

During news event, I’ll consider a scalper approach with buy or sell entries only.
Aim for 1:2 risk-reward with my entries.
News was relatively good for the US. Whether I chose the right currency was the question.

If it is outside economic news, i’ll consider the fundamental impact and trade base on those ideas.

& the consistently successful exponents of that very small sector are operating fully automated/algorithmic models, a good percentage of which execute across varied market conditions, primarily under rapid increases in volatility, according to retail broker feedback.

Even though it’s lower league participation, it remains a quite small, exclusive club.
Certainly food for thought.

Re yout USDCHF trade above.

You may be lucky with this one but the only positive I can see is the row of tails under those recent successive hourly bars. But the overall look technically is still down and I would have been short since this morning.

But you may be seeing a bounce off that bottom line, but in my books this is a risky trade - and I still think your stops are way too close!:

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Oops! did you get stopped out while I was still writing the above???

Yeah it was very close to my buy order but it didn’t hit, and I lost.

The problem with choosing USD/CHF currency was it had an overall downtrend.

I should look for currencies that the US had an overall uptrend with to make my trade variable.

Was going to say exactly that, if I can incorporate my mistake and go for the trending US against another currency, it becomes a higher probability trade.

I don’t think the problem was actually that the pair is in a downtrend…

…maybe it was more to do with buying into it! :smiley:

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True, I might start going for longer-term approaches since I am seeing that the market follows its original course after the news. :grin:

Also, looking at the US DXY, the overall trend for US is downwards.

One other consideration when dealing with economic news releases is that, apart from the actual values published, we have to also consider how much it is aligned with, or deviates from, the anticipated result. The market consensus prior to the release is, obviously, already built into the current price level…but I guess you already know that! :blush:

Maybe I should of used the good news to enter at a good price to follow the trend downwards :grin:

That makes a lot of sense. Buying the retracement of an established trend is a solid strategy. Unless the retracement turns out to be a reversal, it’s a fairly safe trade with (potentially) a very attractive R:R ratio.

Edit:

I’m no trend trader, but I suspect you could run a fairly decent system by placing a pending order on the opposite side of an appropriate moving average that runs alongside an established trend. The order would be intended to catch any price spike or temporary retracement, producing profits when the overall trend resumes.

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IN MY OPINION
it will likely hit your Take profit

HOWEVER…
if i was you, i would have the BUY ENTRY where the stop loss is
I would have the stop loss BELOW 0.9700 but a few pips
and i would have the TAKE PROFIT at 0.97259

in your situation it may still stop you out

however if you keep your current setup, but if you had put your stop loss at a little bit below 0.9700 youd probably be better off

If you are still looking at trades this evening, bear in mind that Monday is Martin Luther King day in the US and trading may slow down earlier than usual for a Friday close.

From the errors I made this week, I have devised key points to consider when trading.
My number one issue was my entry point and stop loss; I’ll be working on it this week as the main focus and need to consider multiple time-frame analysis in my trade.

Key points

  1. Get an overview of the trend for each major currency +gold + oil
  2. Aim to lower my unit purchase amount to match my risk-reward which will give me a wider S/L and allow my trades to move in a direction that I presume.
  3. Look at economic events and how it can go against or boost the trend.
  4. Consider the time period of holding the trade.

Fundamental analysis

  1. the past news from the US was incomparable towards EUR + JPY news, resulting in the US plummeting downwards.
  2. Mon + Tues has no news on US. US DXY on a downtrend. On Tues, GBP CPI will be the next market mover.
  3. Commodity + other currencies are in favourable conditions against the US, market sentiment bearish on the US.
  4. I presume a correction won’t happen until the mid of the week.

My entries will be based on the overall downtrend on the US, as EUR + JPY + commodities have had favourable conditions this week which plummeted the USD. If the fundamentals change/ market environment, I’ll change my approach.

I’ll be revising everyone’s comments tomorrow and thanks for the tough love, learnt a lot this week. :grin:

I am going to backtrack here a bit because this has been bothering me.
You criticised, Martin, my post, which was solely and entirely about **charting price movement (i.e. what the majority of participants (traders and otherwise) are actually doing as opposed to just talking about.

You claimed that I was just promoting the idea of following the herd of retail traders.

You said:

You say “obviously” but I would like to ask you where on earth anyone can work out what the Majority of Retail traders like us are collectively doing in order to follow them??? - because I sure don’t know!!

You know, as well as anyone else here, that Retail does not move markets, so how on earth did you arrive at that conclusion that I was talking about that?

What you obviously intended was that I might be suggesting just listening to Newbie talk, or the views of broker salesmen, or market commentary from just about anywhere, and just blindly following them! If that had been the case then I would fully agree that one would be wasting one’s time entirely, but that is about one million light years from what I actually wrote about - if you bother to go and read it properly this time.

Price does not move all by itself, it reflects the changes in buying and selling activity - and that is the majority that I refer to, whether it comprises institutional, commercial, automated trading systems - or even Retail. As a technical trader, I am only interested in finding direction (or not) within the otherwise chaotic order of price development. Afterall, the only thing that earns money is the movement of the price itself, not the amount of knowledge we might accrue concerning where the price ought to be going.

Well, with that said, I realise the fault it entirely mine and my inability to write unambiguously, clearly and, perhaps even more importantly, briefly. So I learn a lesson here and won’t get in your way again. The field is yours…

Hey Ben,

It’s nice to see somebody open minded and input friendly regarding trading. Although it is not advisable to play the market live in the early stages, I admit I did it myself too and that made me realize, a few years ago, that I wasn’t prepared for this, back then. I returned a few weeks ago to resume it, on a different mindset and life experience. I guess it’s going to work this time.

So, I think that in the end, you’ll get some pretty good lessons learned from this small adventure. And don’t feel bad if you find that you are not ready yet. I’d call it a wise trading decision!

Good luck with it, looking forward to see the new rules in action!

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Thank mbras, I’ll take this as a learning experience to better my trading and I hope you go well this year. :+1:

No i didn’t
I Critiqued your post, there’s a difference
the difference is one is generally done maliciously and the other is giving an opinion and scrutinizing , which ,even though most times has to put a negative light on a person’s work. ITS NOT NECESSARILY MALICIOUS

from reading your comment
i’m sorry you got offended and i apologize,
i didn’t mean that
also i think you are looking too deeply into my words because i was speaking LOOSELY

i mean look at this for example

you latched onto the word OBVIOUSLY for some reason.

mate, when i said obviously i said it loosely
i didn’t pull out an oxford dictionary and said… hmm, which word shall i use because i always want to be fully accurate with the definition of the word that i use

i was talking loosely, and that being the case, it’s not correct to take a word that was used loosely and apply “specific” context to it

as for knowing what the majority of retail traders are doing… YES WE CAN KNOW (but, i won’t get into that now)

mate, simply put … i think you went too deep and i think you took it too personally
it was not intended to be taken like that ok

have a nice day

Martin, you talk about “loosely” this and “loosely” that. You say 1.3000 when you mean 1.2100 - and yet we are on a thread giving advice to an almost brand new entrant to this business who is trying very hard to find his way.

The least we can do as veterans is take great care over the accuracy and relevance of what we advise…which also includes what we read.

I am not offended in any way by you. Frustrated, maybe! Whilst we are currently dealing with a newbie account trading in cents, the ultimate ambition is of course something far greater. This is a business where thousands get potentially lost and gained in a day. It is not a game to be treated lightely or loosely.

My original post was not actually about people at all. It was all about timing - one of the most critical issues in trading alongside direction, entry/exit/stop levels, and risk/money management.

Timing is a difficult issue if one is basing direction on fundamental principles, like ben is. So my point was purely about using technical analysis to judge the right moment to enter the trade… Not prematurely while the market is still going in the other direction, nor too late when the boat has already sailed…Timing, not following other people’s ideas.

And since Ben is trading with such overly tight stops then the issue of timing is even more critical…!

But you are right, maybe I am too serious for this site. But I was nearly 10 years in the trading room management team of a major international bank including responsibility for training new traders - money was serious then and mistakes very expensive. I have since been a sole trader for some 15 years and I still do take it very seriously and I guess I can say I am right where I want to be because of it.

So, yes, I don’t like “loosely” when it comes to trading. Trading is a business and a very tough one. It does not let you off your mistakes lightly.

Ben is currently a few dollars down but the true cost to his account is actually quite a bit more in real terms. It is the difference between where he is now and where he would have been if his trades had succeeded instead of failing. Several of his trades have been within a pip or two of his targets and yet still ended up at the stop. This is the true difference between success and failure - and where one can make a real difference with a little effort.

But you are right. I have felt it already many times here. I am in the wrong pond. Time to retire and take up something more relaxing like motorcycle racing! :slight_smile:

Good luck Martin, i know you mean well. And i hope you get there Ben, you have what it takes if you also have the stamina to maintain it long enough.

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I look forward to everyone’s comments in the future and thank you :grinning: