Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Here’s some more Thursday.
Monthly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency that session +1.36%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency that session -2.41%.

So, I’ve been writing stuff down, as I run these numbers, so that I can put it up in this write up. This is what I noticed this morning.

This week is showing me what a divergence there has been between the USD and the JPY (purple). This is all because, due to history, I know that the Dollar and the Yen like to travel together. It’s a dynamic. I’m going to show you in a minute. But, I noticed that the last session ended up with the top spread pair being USD/JPY. See it there? At 17.52%. That means that there is no other pair that is separated more than this pair. For this month running total percentages.

That tells me that this is not so normal. Which I can say that it’s a divergence. It’s like, out of sorts. Strange. But, it’s the way the market is having it now. And if you’ve done any kind of reading about analyzing, you should know that a divergence simply signifies a presumption of the future to have things go back to the way they were. Kind of like the way standard deviation works. It’s just stuff wanting to go back to normal.

In this case, which will it be? The USD to go south? Or the JPY to start going north? I mean, we really don’t know which way, but I think it’s a good thing to look out for and be aware of. Know what I mean?

Let me show you what the month of January looks like. This is the Daily only standings for that month.

White and Purple. Best buds riding together. Man…I remember back in October, I think, they were both having such domination against all other currencies. Both were on top, like big time. In any case, it’s been a fact.

Now, how about this month, so far?

You can see that last week the Yen made some real strides to be meeting up with the USD. But, it all started this week, of the falling away. And to boot, today, churning out the top spread pair.

Given all that. I thought it was interesting to see that, for this past session, the USD was the most bid currency at +1.36%. And the JPY was the second most bid currency at +1.34%. Which does make sense.

It is too early to tell, but maybe the Yen wants to climb, instead of the USD to fall.

Again…it’s all in the dynamics of how they are relating to each other. The market doesn’t always make sense. But then again, a lot of times it does. So right now, it’s not. Let’s just keep this stuff in mind. Cause, that’s the whole point of this thread. Currency Dynamics.

Alright. See ya at the end of the day.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (345.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s the market up through Thursday.
Monthly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency that session +2.95%.
• CAD (brown) most sold currency that session -2.49%.
• NZD (dark red) most bid for the day in total +3.42%.
• GBP (blue) most sold for the day in total -4.09%.

Boy…this is looking quite weird to me. Check out the Comms. We have the NZD heading up out of the negative %'s. And that’s not even fazing the AUD (red). They are staying in the basement. But what’s happening to the CAD? Today they dropped a total of -3.75%. Look. I haven’t seen the Comms in such an array like this. We’ll have to see if they resemble some likeness tomorrow.

All we would need is the NZD to come down from up there and join the brethren. All you have to do is look at last weeks placements. All three of them were last.

Oh well. We need more, don’t we? As always. Oh, and just so you know. I took my lickings and got stopped out of the NZD/USD trade. Thank God that madness is over.

Alright. There is more to this world than the market, right.
Like Valentine’s Day.

Enjoy!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (333.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
How’s the Friday market opening up?
Monthly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency +1.70%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency -1.39%.

This is some risk-off. Doesn’t surprise me at all for a Friday. Just look back at every Asian session this week. What do you see? Every time, the Yen was the most sold off currency. And now for some profits, in that respects.

And now, maybe finally, the NZD (dark red) is coming down to the others’ territory.

And the JPY just might want to come out of the negatives, and join the others.

Alright.
Let’s get on with the day.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (340.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Here’s a little more Friday market.
Monthly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid currency +2.87%.
• JPY (purple) most sold currency -2.22%.

Well, we sure had a turn around since last session. Completely. Risk-off during Asian, and now London’s morning session threw it risk-on. Interesting.

If you look, the Asian session just carried on what happened during the American session. Well, that didn’t carry over with the Europeans. You have to see the dynamics there. And so, we need to ask whether the Americans will continue the risk-on scenario. Who will win out?

Also, today if Friday and that sometimes means profit taking of whatever the trend was moving with, this week. Ok. I’ll answer that question. What has been the trend?

• The Dollar (white) has been the most bid currency. Untouchable in contrast with any other currency.
• The NZD (dark red) rose up to the occasion mid week, and hasn’t really falling apart. In fact, seems to be gaining momentum.
• The AUD (red) is not taking any real hints of coming out of the basement. Comparatively speaking.
• The JPY (purple) diverted away from the USD. But, as of yesterday, have been climbing up out of the very bottom. Possibly making it’s way up to the 0% line, closer to the other Majors. Quite hard to tell at this point, honestly.
• The GBP (blue) has taken a hit this week so far. From mid week to the end has nosedived a good bit. Maybe possibly ending this way. I guess.

You can see all of this by just looking at that table I have up there.
But, in the context of the year/quarter so far. I can say this. Which, by the way, should hold some weight, and not be forgotten.

• The Comms, in aggregate, have some domination over the Majors.
• The USD has made some headway by coming out of the real negatives. Trying to keep their heads above water. But, can’t completely do it in surety.
• The CHF (pink) is holding onto very last place, most sold currency this year running.
• The CAD is the most bought currency, this year. But very lately, because of this week, the NZD is looking to knock that off.

All I’m doing here is trying to make some sense into what the aggregate sentiment money flow looks like. And I mean, that’s it. I guess that’s what all analysts do, right? I doesn’t necessarily mean to trade in any specific way. You can come up with a thousand different approaches and trades to take, given some of this data.

But, this does give me some kind of answer to this question, that I’m always after.

What’s going on in the market?
How are all the currencies relating to one another?

Ok. 2 questions I guess.

Alright.
Done babbling here.

See ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (347.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
We’re at the end of the week now.
Monthly table.

• GBP (blue) took that session +2.40%.
• USD (white) lost that session -1.68%.
• GBP most bid currency today in total +3.58%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold currency today -2.14%.

Well, we will call that some risk-on buying this afternoon. Each of the 3 Comms went positive today, in total. And the only other currency to make it a positive day is the GBP.

Wait. This looks familiar.
Here’s the quarterly (since the beginning of the year) table.

All you have to do is look at the top 4 positive running currencies, year to date. And they are the only ones to be positive today.

This definitely confirms to me that today’s trading went with the prevailing trend. I have to be honest. I’ve been missing this. But…I got it now. I’ll show you. Take a look.
Daily totals only, there.

I couldn’t get the complete year to date table in there. But that’s all of them, with their running % totals. And you should be able to compare Feburary’s tunnel vision scope of it. Look at the white (USD). They are having a good month, most bid, but just look above. All it did was bring their yearly running total %'s up. They ended January being -11.50%. But, it didn’t quite bring them up over the water mark, 0% line. Got close, but no cigar.

So, the lesson to be learned here (I’m mostly talking to myself) is that there is a prevailing trend taking place. And it can’t be forgotten. This only makes sense to me about what took place today.

Check out the brown (CAD). They dropped down a lot this month, but picked themselves back up. And because they were so high up there for the year running, it didn’t knock them off. That should show you the scope of the high %'s. It does mean something. Money hasn’t forgotten about that.

So, in regards to the Comms, it seems like the NZD and the CAD are trying to get back up to where they already are. The AUD might be the late comer (on the monthly only table). And, bottom line, the Comms are still in control. And until I see a real change in both tables, that’s the running trend.

Alright. I’m done.
Make it a good weekend!

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (339.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s how the market started out.
Monthly table.

• EUR (yellow) most bid +1.08%.
• JPY (purple) most sold -1.61%.

So, looks like some risk-on. The JPY now the most sold currency of the month, and the AUD (red) now lifting off. Interesting.
Oh, and also how the USD/JPY is now the top spread pair. But, it’s not end of day yet, but, telling so far. That’s some divergence to me. I spoke of that earlier last week.

This is what the prevailing trend is.

That’s the stats from the beginning of the year.

Alright.
Let’s get back into the week.
See ya a little later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (341.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good day mates.
Let’s see a little more Monday market.
Monthly table.

• EUR (yellow) again, the most bid currency that session +.78%.
• CAD (brown) the most sold currency that session -.90%.

Well, that will be 2 sessions in a row that the EUR was the most bought currency. It’s not a whole lot, in comparison. Today is Monday, and typically the market is all not that moving. Especially compared to the other days of the week. But, it should be noted. It is a fact that the consensus of the money have wanted to buy the EUR than any other currencies during those particular sessions.

Other interesting things I see…Is how both the USD (white) and the JPY (purple) are being sold off a good bit since the open for the week.

The Comms (reddish), for the most part, have been a bid today.

But, it is interesting to see that the European currencies are all a buy. I guess that is some kind of dynamic. Don’t exactly know to what extent, or of how important, but it is. Cause they do live next to each other. shrug

Alright. Well, the market is just taking off for the week. And I guess today is a national holiday for the Americans (banks should be closed). So, I don’t think it will be all that moving.

I guess I will throw up the running totals for the year. And, by the way, the Swiss is colored pink.

Let’s make it a good day.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (347.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s what the market did for Monday.
Monthly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency that session +1.06%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency that session -1.89%.
• GBP (blue) most bid currency for today +2.16%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency for today -1.84%.

Well, the only real change in line up since the open was the EUR (yellow) making a good move up. And hence, the NZD (dark red) sold off, of second place.

I don’t know, kind of a weird day, looks like. The Dollar is pretty reluctant to come down a whole lot. And the AUD, NZD, really took a hit this afternoon. It’s too early to tell what the week will bring. We always get a better look as the week roles on out. And then, to get the best picture at the end of the week.

Alright.
Have a good night.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (342.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
How’s Tuesday rolling out?
Monthly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency +1.11%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -1.30%.

I think it’s interesting that the only currencies that ended up negative % that session was the Comms.

• NZD (dark red) -1.30%.
• AUD (red) -1.17%.
• CAD (brown) -.25%.

The rest of the currencies (Majors) all ended up in the positive, with the USD being the most bid.

And you (well, I do anyway) have to think, whether it was a running away from the Comms, or a running to the Majors?
Could simple be just risk-off sentiment buying.

Alright.
Be careful out there.
See ya in the day light.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (349.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good day mates.
Here’s some more Tuesday market roll out.
Monthly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency their session +1.30%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -.81%.

Well, that’s two sessions in a row for the NZD being most sold currency. And it’s bringing down the AUD (red) along with it. Conformity…nice. But, what doesn’t quite make sense, is how the CAD (brown) is not conforming. I mean, no real big surprise, but I think mentionable. A lot of times (it seems more and more nowadays) the CAD does side with the USD (white). Don’t forget, they are close trading partners.

Anyway. We should take a look at the running totals for the year running. Or can say it’s the quarterly running totals. Look.

• The CAD (brown) is still the most bought currency year to date.

Needless to say, when they are being bought, I think this is probably the best explanation of why. Because they have been, and money is continuing that way. Or I should say…it’s not forgotten about. Like there’s a good reason it is.

Anyway. According to this table, which is the prevailing trend, I’m not seeing any real changes. And when I say that, I’m keeping with the perspective that we need quite more sessions, even days, worth of a change. Know what I mean? See, change is consistently taking place. It really is subjective. The market will always be going back and forth. That’s what makes it so hard…or interesting…or challenging…however you want to look at it. Change happens, and is subjective.

We must keep the proper perspective, in regards to the way we trade it. Right?

Ok. Let’s make it a good day.
Be smart.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (355.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s how it went down today.
Monthly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency that session +3.97%.
• CAD (brown) most sold currency -2.76%.
• GBP most bought currency for the day in total +5.79%.
• USD (white) most sold currency for today -2.89%.

Wow. What happened? Some kind of turn around took place this afternoon.

Looks like the Pound got a serious bid. A lot of attention going there. Also, the USD went through a serious selling.

As I am all about relationships, I definitely noticed that although the USD sold off, so did the JPY (purple). They ended up being -2.75%. And that only makes sense to me. As I have mentioned before, that those two do like to run together. It sure showed today. And you know that I’ve been wondering why the divergence between them lately. Well, looks like the Dollar is coming down, instead of the Yen coming up.

But…man…for as much as the NZD (dark red) took a hit the first two sessions, they made it all up in the last one. They ended up being +1.13%, the next one after the GBP. And then, of course, the AUD next with a +.96%.

I guess we never know when the changes will come. But, I do think this may be a strong hint that we might be going back to risk-on. Which is the prevailing trend. Speaking of that, I’ll depart with that chart.

Alright. Have a good night.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (350.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening on this Wednesday…
Quarterly chart.

• CAD (brown) most bought currency so far +1.85%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency so far -1.68%.

I figured it’s easier to know what’s happening more from this chart. It’s a no brainer to see that we have the 4 long standing positive % currencies against the 4 long running negative % currencies.

I didn’t mention yesterday that we have a new top pair spread. The GBP/CHF. If you look back, they had their time at the top for a good while. Mostly through January.

Well, not all that much happening.
I’ll leave you with the month running table.

Alright.
See you when it gets light out.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (357.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s more Wednesday.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency that time +.70%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency -1.04%.

Well, not a whole lot of buying or selling happening. I guess it’s getting reserved for later on in the US session. That would be due to the FOMC meeting that we have at 2pm, my time.

And we know that the Dollar (white) will be the most volatile currency. But…that surely has effects on the others.

Check out the CAD (brown). Man, they are still on the bid. They simply are not going away. As you can see, they took a hit yesterday during their session, only to bounce right back in it today. Plus some. But…of course…the day isn’t over. These are just snap shots. I have 3 of those inside of a day. At the end of each session.

So, I wanted to talk a bit about what’s going on in the monthly only table. Let’s look.

That’s zoomed out as much as I can go. Little over a week.
Basically, the USD has been the most bid currency for this month (white). But, you can see that coming into this week it surely has come down.

The JPY (purple) has tried to get above 0%, but can’t do it. It’s dropping. And I think that’s due to a dropping Dollar.

The AUD, NZD, have really struggled in the beginning of the month, but ever since last weeks bomb from the NZD, for the upside, they really are trying to come on out of the bottom. And really, I think that has a lot to do with the US and China trade talk lately.

The CAD (brown) has kept with their prevailing trend throughout this month.

The GBP (blue)…they are so tough to summarize. They have such good days along with some bad days. At least they are keeping with their prevailing trend, which if you look at the quarterly table, they have stayed in the positive running % since the start of the year.

The EUR (yellow) and the CHF (pink), for the most part, have just kept quiet and not really going anywhere. Their prevailing trend has been in the negative %'s.

So, given what happens today with a move of the USD, that should push the particular currencies in their ways. And if that means with the prevailing trend, then we should see more risk-on currencies (Comms) being bought again, and the JPY to sell off more. Along with the CHF.

Look. Anything can happen. I think the best way to think about is whether or not the prevailing trend will continue or not. How many other ways are there to look at it? Know what I mean? But…I do know one thing for sure. They will relate to one another in some kind of way. And that’s the reason why I get up in the morning. To find it out. And to trade accordingly.

Alright.
Enough nonsense. Let’s make this a good day.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (364.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s Wednesday in total.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency that session +.80%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -1.19%.
• CAD (brown) most bought currency for today +2.58%.
• NZD most sold currency for today -2.68%.

Well, it surely didn’t seem like much of an event today. The USD came up .23% that entire session. And up .49% for the day in total.

I guess the most attention went to buying the CAD.

And for the JPY, there was a lot more selling going on. Seems to me that there is no tiring of them going down, huh? That makes me think that the risk is more on than anything.

Alright. Nothing else earth shattering, that I see.
Have a good night.
See ya in the a. m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (352.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s going on for a Thursday…
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency +1.78%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency -3.88%.
• Some major negative flow -10.76%.

Wow. Something happened overnight. The last thing I saw, then went to bed, was the AUD unemployment data. Which was awesome. And that really boosted them. But then I wake up to a murder scene.

Well, it’s risk-off. Only the AUD and the NZD were the only currencies to be negative ( NZD -2.84%). All else very positive.

All I’m wondering is, whether this is a tell of things to come. And we kind of should know by the end of tomorrow. It doesn’t look good…for the prevailing trend.

Alright.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (359.7 KB)

[Trendswithbenefits]

Wow. Something happened overnight. The last thing I saw, then went to bed, was the AUD unemployment data. Which was awesome. And that really boosted them. But then I wake up to a murder scene.

Australia’s Unemployment Figures aren’t what they seem… it’s a fugazi number…

If you have 4 hours of work a week… your in that data as employed… a very large percentage of employment in Oz is now Casual or Part time… so pay no attention to the results behind the curtain.

There’s now talk of two interest rate cuts during 2019, so expect the AUD to be weak for the rest of the year… I estimate the AUDUSD to go below ~$0.70 support sometime soon…

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Thanks Trends…

Let’s see some more Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency their morning time +1.80%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency, again, -1.49%.

Well, looks to me like the Pound wants the top spot. They have been out bidding the CAD (brown) this week. You can see the session takings this week. Definitely wanting it. Took 4 sessions of the 11 that we had so far. Also, they took 2 complete days of the 3 total, so far. Needless to say, they are on it. Lots of buying the GBP.

And, in regards to the other positive running %'s, the Comms (reddish)…well…they also are losing a bunch of sessions. And total days.

We always get a better picture as the week rolls out. Sure, it’s hindsight. And I think that is evil (in the sense that we should have known something was coming, but we just do not). I simply cannot predict the future (which, by the way, goes for everyone). But the thing is, this is what’s called a trend. It’s a flow. And it seems to me that we have a better sense the more of it rolls out.

So, in regards to a weeks time span, in which I find the most helpful, I will get a better feel at the end of it. So presently speaking, I will be looking for whether the Comms would want to continue on down or not. In the broadest spectrum. But…I do feel that until someone crosses over the 0% line, it’s not all that much of a change.

All that nonsense goes for me, in regards to my trading tactics and plans.

So, disregard that mumbo gumbo. Just talking to myself.

Alright.
Let’s make it a good day, no matter what happens.
I will.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s see how it ended, for Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) took that session +1.58%.
• CAD (brown) lost that session -1.85%.
• JPY most bid currency today in total +3.28%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency today -5.89%.

Well, I’ll tell you what I think is interesting. Not only did the JPY take the day, but the USD was the next most bid currency for today, at +2.24%. Boy…their tough. See, on Tuesday of this week, they both were the top 2 sold currencies. And I mentioned that it seems like the USD might be coming down to the Yen. But…now…it seems like the Yen wants to go up to the Dollar. I just do not know. Other than they do like to buy or sell together. I’ll just keep it at that. That’s all I know.

And the Comms sure did take a hit today. I mean, my goodness. Let’s see.

• The NZD (dark red) is presently, for the week running, -7.21%.
• The AUD (red) is presently, for the week running, -5.52%.

What’s going to happen tomorrow, you ask?
Heck if I know.
I will be wondering if this slide will continue…or a serious bounce back (due to the prevailing trend on the quarterly table).

Here’s the monthly table.

All you have to do is look at their percentages. Pretty gruesome.

Alright.
Market time over (for me anyway).
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (355.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Let’s see how Friday is starting out.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid currency +2.16%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -1.57%.

Now, isn’t that something. We’ve seen this before, I remember because I mentioned it how weird that is. Both comm’s on opposite ends of the market. Well, I just looked, and this happened on Friday Feb 8th, NZD (+1.23%) AUD (-1.64%). Funny how it happened on a same day (Fri). Well, just so you don’t have to go back and look, what the final result back then was the AUD lost the day in total. And for both currencies it was a losing day.

Ok. That’s nice. I know. Well, I can’t tell what the sentiment is. Seems so mixed. It’s tough.

I’ll just leave you with the monthly table.

Alright.
See ya little later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (362.8 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what’s happening on Friday.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid currency that session +2.26%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency -2.51%.
• More positive flow 1.68% (the positives going up and the negatives going down).

So, looks like the NZD joined big brother as the day unfolded.

The JPY (purple) has been more selling today.

The Dollar (white) is not all that moving.

Basically, it is a bounce from what’s been the sentiment all during this week. This is what I had at the end of yesterday.

@MikeWolski

The NZD (dark red) is presently, for the week running, -7.21%.
The AUD (red) is presently, for the week running, -5.52%.

What’s it presently look like now?

• NZD is -6.52%.
• AUD is -2.96%.

So yeah, their bouncing, but still looks like it might be a losing week for them. Speaking of bouncing…Here’s a look at this month (all by itself), only of the daily end totals.

All you have to do is look at the reddish ones. The NZD (dark red) was the one that moved pretty far up, only to come back down. And the AUD (red) did make a try up, but in comparison to the others was basically not making any headway.

Therefore, now that we are starting to head into the end of the month, I kind of think that the broader sentiment just might be changing. That does take some time to make a dent on the higher table.

Well, we’ll have to see what the Americans do with them. Yeah, it is a bit of risk-on today, but up to the present time, not all that much. Hope I gave you some kind of perspective.

Alright.
I’ll see you at the end.
Be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (370.1 KB)