Here’s some more Wednesday market.
- CHF (pink) took that session +1.45%.
- NZD (dark red) lost that session -1.72%.
Let me throw out the quarterly table. This way you can see an accurate flow.
Now the flow means that the top 4 positive running %'s, of the year so far, go up…and the 4 negative running %'s go down. If that is the case, the flow will be a positive number. And as you can see, the first session was extremely positive +19.48%. But when London wakes up and trades their morning session the flow turned negative, -2.96%.
What does that mean?
A whole lot of exuberance took place during the Asian trading. It didn’t carry through into the next session.
Did we have change? Well, that’s quite a subjective subject. In my mind, because the most important tell is the end of day prices, I’m not convinced. All that tells me is the those in Asia are really wanting to buy the NZD, in and all by itself. But…does the rest of the world?
Anyway. Some points I want to make.
For me, what’s more important is to see the forest before I see the trees. Meaning, I’d rather see how ALL the currencies are relating to one another, rather than ONE currency all by itself. There is a difference. That would tell me more about change, more than anything.
Was that a game changer?
I don’t believe so. Cause if you compare that monsterous move to last Wednesday’s monsterous move, and I’m talking about the 3 Comm currencies, it doesn’t compare. Last week, all three of them (AUD,NZD,CAD) moved together. They all were a sell. Check my full excel table, or go back a few posts. Compare.
Plus, ALL of the major currencies last week (USD,JPY,CHF,EUR,GBP) moved together. They all were a buy.
And one more point. Was this a change in the daily trend? I don’t believe so. Well, up to this point. I will have a much better idea at the end of the day. But… even moreso by the end of the week.
It was a doosie of a move, no doubt. But, I’m not budging, just yet. I’m still in the NZD/USD trade, going south. And at least I’m making up some pips as time is moving along now.
I’m not worried. Until I see a real change, or by the end of the week, then I will make a move. But not until then. It’s because the way I trade is called swing trading. And not everyone trades that way. But, according to this tracking of the currencies this way, you have to always keep that in mind. The time frame of it all.
Plus…this is all what I tell myself, and remind myself.
So, don’t mind the nonsense.
Be careful out there.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (344.0 KB)