Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s what happened for Monday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +7.15%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -3.12%.
• MASSIVE positive flow +14.02%.
• GBP took the day as a whole +6.57%.
• CHF lost the day as a whole -3.99%.

Wow. Well, this Monday turned out not-so-quiet, huh? What a blast. And wouldn’t you know it, it was the most in demand against the least in demand currencies. And I think it’s interesting to see all who took the sessions. The Pound goes from the most sold currency during Asia to being the most bought currency for the rest of the day.

I guess it pays off to the keep with that pair. I know I change things around, but all that stopped a couple, three, weeks ago. The absolute, only, pair that I’ve been trading is this top spread pair. And not the one on the monthly table either. And I’m not gonna get into exactly when I’m in it, and details like that, but just know that if I’m trading, it will be with this top pair.

The GBP/CHF jumped 200 pips today. So…good thing I had a limit entry order in. Cause not only did it take, but took my take profit price also.

Ok, that’s nice. I know.
I’ll leave you with the monthly look.

Make it a good evening. And I’ll see ya in the dark.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (412.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s some Tuesday market.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +3.05%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.23%.
• Positive flow 4.18%.

Ok. So the slaughtering continues.

And it’s slanted towards risk-on. Although the NZD (dark red) was the only Comm to rise (.84%). The other 2 (red, brown) dropped as much (-.88%, -.92%). Little interesting.

Ok. Well, let’s see how it plays out today.

I’ll leave you with the monthly table.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (412.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening on this Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +2.54%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -9.43%.
• Massive negative flow -12.64%.

Wow. Something happened, with the Pound, during that session, huh? We all know that most, if not all, of the attention is definitely surrounding the GBP. It’s called Brexit. I know, pretty sure anyway, that there’s a vote happening today. Also there’s a lot of things flying on the wires of what someone would say (Those in charge). You should also know that at the end of the month (29th) is the deadline. Look. I don’t want to indulge into all the details, because it’s all written up amongst many analysis’s out there. But, needless to say, there’s many reasons why the Pound is doing what it’s doing.

On the other hand, there are other currencies moving, just not as much though. But, interesting, in this last session it was the CHF that was on the other side of the GBP. I kind of think because of what happened yesterday, the Swiss just took back a lot of what they lost. Surely I don’t think the Swiss is in most demand, by any means. It was just taking back what was lost, that’s all.

Anyway. If you take the Pound out of the picture (I know it’s kind of a hard thing to do), for today, you would see that the NZD (dark red) is the most bought currency today. Well, why don’t I lay it out to you. How about for this week running.

• NZD +3.40%.
• AUD (red) +1.41%.
• EUR (yellow) +.95%.
• GBP (blue) +.19%.
• CAD (brown) -.63%.
• USD (white) -1.00%.
• JPY (purple) -2.08%.
• CHF (pink) -2.24%.

Ok. That’s the line up, up to the beginning of the US session now. From the start of the week. And what we have is the NZD is the most bid currency, aggregately speaking. So, what I see is mostly risk-on currencies being bought, and the Major risk-off currencies being sold.

You sometimes just have to see what else is going on, know what I mean? Well, that’s how I want to see it. I’m not a fan of tunnel vision. Remember, I want to know what’s going on…other than Brexit.

Ok. That’s nice.

Well, please, be careful out there. We’ll see how it all shakes out.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (413.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here we go. Tuesday’s results.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid that session +1.31%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.92%.
• Positive flow 5.42%.

Ok. Well, looks like more risk-on (than risk-off) that session. And, it’s nice to see the CAD come back. Actually, that’s 2 sessions in a row today. Ok. That’s nice, huh? shrug

I don’t see all that much going on. Other than the Pound got some real bad news earlier.

Here’s the monthly table.

Oh yeah, it’s the NZD taking over on that table, huh? Uh, yep, risk-on. They sure do like to front that sentiment. Wow. Kind of interesting to see the polar currencies there (NZD,CAD). That looks to have knocked down that top spread some.

Well, if you ask me…I think it’s all eyes on the Pound. Who knows what’s gonna happen there. All I can say is be prepared for anything.

Alright.
Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (416.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What happened during Asia, on this Wednesday…
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid during that session +1.74%.
• AUD (red) most sold during that session -2.26%.
• Negative flow -4.98%.

Kind of looks like more risk-off, but with the Pound catching a bounce. The GBP does always seems to sing their own tune. Risk-on, risk-off, it never matters to them, right?

Well, I guess the saga continues with that. So, we’ll have to see what happens. I don’t quite see much anything else. Other than a little bidding from the safe havens so far.

Alright.
See ya in a few.
Mike
Monthly table.

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (422.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Man…I guess I never get to say good afternoon. Oh well.
Let’s see how this Wednesday is turning out.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +3.38%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.41%.
• Positive flow 4.6%.

There’s the Pound again. Second session in a row. I mean, we kind of know that it’s going one way or the other. Especially after such a move yesterday. So, we can say that there could be a lot of retracement happening, or that the market thought it was too much out of line. Who knows. All we know is that most of the attention is going to the Pound.

Well, other than that, the risk-on currencies are still taking a bit of a hit today.

Alright.
Make it a good day today.
Monthly table.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (429.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
We have end of day, for a Wednesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +7.73%.
• USD (white) most sold that session -3.27%.
• Huge positive flow 13.38%.
• GBP most bought currency today +12.85%.
• NZD most sold currency today -4.06%.

Holy smokes. Right? I guess money knows where it wants to go. It’s all about the Pound. Should be of no surprise. Except which direction, of course.

Well, I don’t know what else there is to talk about.
How about the monthly table.

Alright. Let’s see. Tomorrow is Thursday. shrug
Let’s just play 'em as we see 'em.
Have a good night.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (418.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what happened since the open, for Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid that session +1.89%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.03%.
• Negative flow -6.34%.

Basically it looks like the reverse since last session. We can call that a retracement. It all just went the opposite. I guess it was a lot yesterday huh?

Little interesting.

• USD (white) +1.89%.
• EUR (yellow) +1.34%.
• CAD (brown) +1.17%.
• CHF (pink) +1.15%.
• JPY (purple) -1.21%.
• AUD (red) -1.75%.
• NZD (dark red) -.56%.

Looks like the Asian currencies all, for the most part, were being sold off. And the Majors were all being bought.

Alright. Let’s see how the day unravels.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (425.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Let’s see how Thursday is rolling out.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid that session +1.02%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -1.05%.
• More negative flow -4.2%.

Ok. Looks like we have some continuation going on today. It’s a strong Dollar and a weak GBP. Well, let’s see what the running daily totals are for those 2.

• USD +2.91%.
• GBP -3.08%.

I guess all you had to do was add both sessions up, huh? Well, anyway, that’s what it looks like for today. Money kept going that way. In fact, look there. What happened yesterday during the US session? I was telling you just earlier this morning that it was such a big move yesterday that today seems like a retracement from that move. Ok. Well, it’s still continuing. Then…let’s add it up. How much of a retracement took place so far?

The USD retraced 89% from what it lost yesterday during the US session. So, it didn’t quite recoup all of it’s losses, yet.
The GBP retraced just about 40% from what it gained yesterday during the US session. So, it is a bit away from half of what it gained yesterday.

Basically, what I am seeing is the Pound has taken such a big gain only to lose right around half the amount. And we all know that there could be so much more for them to lose. And in regards to the USD. Seems to me that their not supposed to be all that weak. It has some strength. Or else money probably would want to go to the JPY (purple). But nope, the Yen is much weaker than the Dollar.

And the Comms aren’t all that strong. Sure, they are, but definitely are not the go-to currencies. I guess things need to be just right for them to gain some legs.

I don’t know. It’s all relative.
Monthly table.

They are quite spread out on the context of how they are relating this month.

Yeah, I would say the market is pretty quite mixed. No real conformity taking shape. It’s probably Europe’s fault. You know…if they had their act together, this world would be in better shape. The US can only do so much. Know what I mean?

I bet once this Brexit matter gets settled, we should be able to tell, one way or the other (and I don’t care which way), global sentiment. If they did get things straightened out, I think that would tremendously help out the Emerging Markets. That’s probably the biggest driver when it comes to risk-on being prevalent. How well those countries do definitely tells you where the money wants to go. If they are on the up, then money goes there. If down, away and to safe havens it goes.

Ok. That’s enough nonsense for one day.
Make it a good day.
And by the way…if anyone wants to talk about those fundamental sentiments, I’m your guy.
But, I also understand that some other things are more important. Like figuring out a trading strategy.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (432.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s what happened for Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.14%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.04%.
• A bit of negative flow -.24%.
• USD (white) most bid for today +2.48%.
• GBP (blue) most sold for today -3.44%.

Ok. Well, I can’t be long here 'cause I see we have a new top pair (GBP/JPY). So, I have to change things. That’ll be the one I navigate now. You know.

Anyway. I wonder why the AUD sprang to life. Those 2 right there look like some risk-on sentiment. Interesting.

Alright. Let me just throw out the monthly table.

Have a good night.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (421.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday. Let’s see what happened since the open.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid +1.67%.
• USD (white) most sold -1.36%.
• Positive flow 5.58%.

Ok. Looks like some risk-on. That would about match the line up. Those in the positive against those in the negative.

How about the monthly table.

Boy, that NZD is the favorite so far this month, huh?
Oh, and the JPY (purple) seems to be sliding away from the Dollar. I mean, there’s not a whole lot of separation between the 2 (% wise), but maybe the JPY is dragging the USD down with it. I really don’t know, but it could be.

Alright.
Let’s get on with this Friday.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (428.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Little more Friday market.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +1.33%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -1.04%.
• About even with the flow -.06%.

Ok. So the Pound bounces back during their morning session. And the CAD takes the hit. I guess they were getting a little to strong. I don’t know.

We just have to see what the Americans think. It’s their turn now.

How about the monthly table.

Man…I know I keep saying it, and I’m sorry, but it still amazes me how the JPY tails the USD. They sure seem to either go up together or go down together. Relatively speaking, amongst the others. See, during the first session, they both dropped ( -1.36% & -1.17%). This session they both rose ( +.46% & +.18% ). Again…I’m sorry. I just like it when I see a predictable relationship.

And I’m fully aware that this doesn’t always happen. It just seems to happen more than not. That’s all. I just can’t figure out why that is. My guess…maybe they (JPY) peg their currency against the Dollar in some fashion. I’m talking about their Central Bank traders. But it’s just a theory.

Look. It’s always a good thing to notice patterns that take place. Kind of makes our jobs possibly a little easier.

Alright.
I’m done talking.
Make it a good Friday!
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (434.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
And that’s a week. Let’s look at it.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +.91%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -1.92%.
• Negative flow -1.36%.
• GBP (blue) most bought today +1.42%.
• CAD (brown) most sold today -2.32%.

Well, that kind of looks strange. The Yen the most bought during the US session. But, that’s not all that to write home about, not even a full percent. I think it was a tame day. Not all that much movement.

But, the CAD kept up the selling. Let’s see it on the monthly table.

Yep…I would have to say, for this month, a LOT of attention is going to them, and it is the selling kind. You can see that there’s no buying any more than there is selling. That’s where the amount of %'s comes in handy. I think it’s telling.

Ok. Well, it’s the weekend. And I’m so very excited about it. Cause I bought a book and it just came today. So I’m gonna have some serious reading time in my mornings. I so look forward to the weekend morning times. I reserve it for reading.

Alright. Make it a good weekend!

Oh… you curious about what book?
Mind Sculpture

Don’t hate.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (427.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What happened since the open.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid currency +2.72%.
• JPY (purple) most sold currency -1.90%.
• Pretty good positive flow +7.66%.

Well, we have some risk-on going on today so far.
Yep, pretty much all currencies traveled that way, except for the GBP. They went in the opposite direction. But, we all know how they march to their own tune.

Here’s the monthly table.

Alright. Running a bit late this morning. So, got to run.
Make it a good day. See ya soon.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (435.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Little more Monday market.
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.39%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -1.06%.
• Negative flow -4.94%.

Alright. So, looks like the risk-on currencies took a hit. Or we can say that this session just retraced what was taken last session. Anyway. The market is mostly going back and forth. Like usual.

How about the monthly table.

Well, in regards to the monthly context, the 2 brothers have the upper hand. And it’s still interesting to see that the CAD (brown) is not participating with 'em. Still moving down. Man…that trio is fractured. Ever since this month got going, the CAD went straight down. Boy, they sure do sing to their own tune, huh? Reminds me of the Pound. Oh well, I’ll take it. But, isn’t Mr. Oil on the upswing? Like 59 a barrell? Hmph. shrug Must be something up with their economy, taking the sentiment, front and center in some minds.

Anyway. That’s nice.

Let’s just take it one day at a time. Right?
And let’s make it a successful day, for a Monday.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (442.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Monday’s results.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +1.29%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold that session -0.89%.
• Negative flow -2.62%.
• AUD (red) most bought currency today +1.78%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency today -2.58%.

Well, the way I see it, as you can see by the flow, that the last 2 sessions just reversed the open’s positive flow. So, kind of like a shake out. Now that’s aggregately speaking, of course. It really was a mixed bag today.

Specifically, yeah, the Pound, who rides like the Lone Ranger, took the hit today.

Monthly table.

Well, 2 weeks into the month, and that’s what it looks like. We’re at the half way point in the month.
shrug
No real changes taking place. I mean, you have the Comm bro’s at the top. The CAD (brown) on the bottom. And the Majors pretty low, comparatively speaking.

Let’s just see how the week shakes out.
Alright.
Make it a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (429.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what Tuesday’s open looked like.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid +.67%.
• AUD (red) most sold -.83%.
• Some negative flow -.8%.

Not all that much movement. No currency ended that session either up or down a full %. But, it was the Pound taking some pips back.

I find it a bit interesting to see that the NZD (dark red) was a mirror to the AUD. Respectively… (+.33%, -.83%) But, then again, it’s not much movement.

The monthly table.

I mean, you only have the Pound and the Aussie battling it out for 2nd place. Their so close to each other. You’ll have that. Other than that, no changes on the polar ends. The NZD and the CAD have pulled away from the others.

Alright.
Let’s see where the Europeans want their money to go.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (436.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Little more Tuesday market.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid that session +1.16%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -0.77%.
• Around even with the flow .2%.

So, what do we got?
Well, for today, the AUD is still being the most sold for today. That’ll be 2 sessions in a row. And I noticed that they are the only currency that is traveling above 1%. So, for the day they are sitting at -1.60%.

The next most moving currencies are the GBP (blue) and the USD (white). +.72%, -.72%, respectively. So, I guess the market as a whole is not really taking off yet. I would say anything over 1% is mentionably moving. That’s in a day’s time.

Monthly table.

You can notice that the CAD has snapped back from the open of the day. We’ll just have to see how the day ends with them. Will they stay above the -10% level? That’s where they ended up on Friday and Monday. But, so far for today, they climbed above that level. I don’t know…we’ll have to see.

Other than that, the only thing really mentionable is the GBP (blue). They are moving. Of course they always are, right? This time it’s back up. But just look at their %'s. It’s not all that much to write home about.

Alright. Well, that’s about all I can talk about.
Every day is a new experience.
All we can do is stay tuned and find out what happened. I’m sorry. But, we’re all in the same boat together. No one has any other edge about what will happen. Need to remember that.

Make it a productive day.
See ya when it closes.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (441.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s see how the day ended. Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.16%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -.53%.
• Negative flow -2.8%.
• CHF most bid today in total +1.28%.
• AUD most sold today in total -2.13%.

Wow. The AUD got sold off today huh? Every session they were the most sold currency. But…you know…I was looking. Today was a very light day. In fact, let me give you the top of the line up, in single pairs.

• AUD/CHF -.42%.
• EUR/AUD +.39%.
• GBP/AUD +.35%.
• AUD/CAD -.28%.
• AUD/JPY -.25%.
• AUD/USD -.22%.
• CHF/JPY +.21%.

I’m done. The rest is all below those figures. Nothing else moved any greater (one way or the other) than what you see there. And all this means, is it was a very slow day. See, a normal, moving, day consists of between about .50% - 1.00%. And what we’re talking about here is volatility. How much a currency pair has moved. Don’t forget that an end of the day is never around the extreme of a day. Things always retract before it’s all over.

Anyway. My take on all of this.
I believe the market is probably setting up for a big move. Like tomorrow. First off, it’ll be Wednesday. Big moves are known to happen then. Secondly, and more importantly, tomorrow is when our FOMC meeting ends with their take on things. It’s the interest rate decision time. That’ll be at 2pm my time. And I have a feeling that all (most of it anyway) of the money is getting ready for something. Don’t even ask me what.

Basically, I think it’s the calm before the storm. It’s a getting ready.

Monthly table.

Well, to finish what I mentioned before. Looks like the CAD did not end up above the -10% level. So, I kind of think they aren’t going anywhere. I mean, who knows. It’s just how it looks right now. You would think if money (that wants it higher) wanted to take advantage of this little boost today, it would. But no. Then again, it could be tomorrow. I don’t know. Like whenever things get rolling again. The only thing they have coming is on Friday they have some CPI (inflation) data coming out. And as I see their numbers now, looks like they had a real bad showing last month. And this month looks like a bump up. That’s the expectation anyway. So, there’s a chance it’ll climb sometime this week.

Alright.
I’m done talking.
Let’s get on with the evening.
See ya tomorrow morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (431.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
How’s Wednesday rolling out…
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid +.62%.
• EUR (yellow) most bid also +.62%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold -1.27%.
• Negative flow -2.18%.

So, we do have a tie. That’s a first, I think. Interesting. Today is a bid day.

Monthly table.

I guess the only thing I find interesting is how the JPY (purple) dropped. And we’re talking as much as the USD rose. -.59%.

It’s looking more like a risk-off market, all except the Yen. I don’t know. Something’s up. We’ll have to see if this continues today. It surely isn’t something to be alarmed about cause we’re not talking about a whole lot here. Just interesting to me, that’s all.

Let’s get on with the day and see how they lay.
Alright. See ya later.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (437.6 KB)