Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Here’s what’s going on.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid that session +2.21%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -3.24%.

We have a new month going. Welcome March. Not all too much happening. Most notable is the Yen still a sell. And the GBP/JPY is still the largest spread of any pair.

Here’s what the new month starting out looks like.

And that is just all what happened today, so far.

Alright. It is NFP Friday. Let’s see how it plays out.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s a little more Friday.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.86%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -1.16%.
• Still positive flow +3.49%.

Ok. Well, I’ve been so busy with changing over my monthly table (very much work), I’m running late. NFP just happened a few minutes ago. So, I don’t know how it went. But, that’s how they all lay out beforehand.

Looks like the Major’s (USD (white),CHF (pink),JPY (purple) took a hit, sell, going into it. Also the GBP. But the Comms (reddish) are on a bid.

We’ll see how the day turns out. So…if you trade like me (swing trading), all this kind of doesn’t really matter until the end of the day. But, I can tell you one thing for sure, it’s just going to go back and forth till the end. You really have to keep that in mind.

Alright.
I’m not going to put forth all that effort without showing you the monthly running, so far, line up. Oh, also, it’s all correct on my excel sheet.

Remember, all of what we have so far is nothing but what happened since the open for the month. Which was just like some 15 hours ago or so. It’ll all have to shake out, for a better line up sense. And that’s why the quarterly running stats (above) is good to have around. Keeping the perspective going.

Ok. Make it a good day, and I’ll see ya at the end of the week.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (382.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
That’s a week. Let’s look.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency that session +3.04%.
• CAD (brown) most sold currency -7.11%.
• USD most bid for today in total +2.29%.
• CAD most sold for today in total -5.42%.
• MAJOR negative flow -17.92%.

Well, first off, let me say that I’m stupid. I thought it was NFP, but not. Oh well. Let’s move on.

Man…what happened to the CAD today? They got hit! I didn’t catch any news, but I’m sure it was something during their session.

Well, let’s look at them. Everyone (except the GBP (blue)) went the other way than their long running standings. During this last session. Interesting.

How about this first day of the month…

Man…I think this was a game changer for the CAD.

Also, I still think, since yesterday, that this is a game changer for the Swiss (pink). They, in my mind, are on the move up and out of the basement. We’ll have to see if that plays out in the long run. Look. It’s just what the numbers have shown, that’s all. The JPY (purple) is the one at the bottom now (quarterly table above).

And I do know that things like to change around the turn of a month. We’re right in the middle of it now. Things start to kick into gear after NFP. Which, by the way, is next Friday. Duhh…

Alright. All I know is, it’s the weekend.
Let’s make the best of it.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (408.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what’s happening since the start.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency +2.06%.
• CHF (pink) most sold currency -1.43%.
• Positive flow 6.72%.

Well, we can see that pretty much everyone went in their particular direction. The positive’s went positive and likewise with the negatives.

It’s a typical slow Monday, so far. I don’t see all that much mentioning. Actually, the only thing that caught my eye was how the Swiss went back down. We’ll have to see in which direction they really want to be heading. Need some more sessions to tell.

Alright.
I’ll see ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (417.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s a little more Monday market.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.16%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -1.63%.
• Negative flow that session -1.86%.

For the most part, today, the Comms are on it. Their steadily climbing so far. The GBP is wavering a bit. But, I think they are back on the climb right now, heading into the US session.

Well, it still is a calm market for a Monday. Nothing too exciting happening.

Let’s see what US has in store for us.
I’m gonna leave you with what the monthly stats look like. It still is messy, cause we’re only on the second day. But, I do like to know what that context is saying. Like…where’s the money flowing in and out of since the turn of the month.

Mostly out of the CAD (brown). Is what I’m mostly seeing.

Alright. See ya later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (423.8 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s how Monday happened.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.88%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -1.93%.
• NZD most bought currency today in total +3.04%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold currency today -1.73%.

Well, according to that table, long running, no real changes happening. Other than the Swiss (pink) is still keeping above the JPY.

But, I think it’s a little more interesting to see the monthly table.

Uh, yep, the CAD (brown) is definitely down in the basement. You can see by how much. So far this month, they did a U-turn. And also, by comparison to the other selling currencies this month, no one’s coming close to them. I’d have to say money is coming out of them. It’s just what I see, right?

Interesting to see the Comm brothers leading the pack. Although, by all not that much. Needless to say, since the turn of the month, they are the most bought currencies, aggregately speaking.

Well, it’s early on in the week. I think we do have some serious stuff happening this week, other than NFP on Friday. Central Bank stuff. Oh…that’s right…the AUD (red). Yeah boy, watch out for that. Who knows what’s gonna happen. Don’t look at me. I’m just gonna show it to you afterwards, that’s all.

Alright.
Make it a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (411.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s Tuesday’s beginning market look.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency +1.43%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -2.21%.
• Negative flow -4.58%.

Well, the Dollar seems to be on the move. And you have to remember that the market is a forward thinking machine. We have NFP on Friday. I wonder if the USD is preempting the move already. That would be something to remember. You’ve heard of price being priced in already, right? Well, it has to start sometime.

Other than that, the Comms are taking a hit today. CAD (brown) is still on a slow kill. But the GBP is coming back up again.

Alright. Let’s just see how it rolls out today.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (418.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
We got more Tuesday market.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency that session, +1.99%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency that session, -2.21%.
• Negative flow again -4.49%.

That’s 2 sessions in a row for the USD buying. And we haven’t even hit their session yet. We just might be in the middle of a Dollar buying trend. I think their seeing the end of the week already.

Also, I believe the JPY (purple) is tailing the USD. I’m telling you…they like to run together. I think it’s a Major thing.

You can see this more clearly on the monthly table. Check it out.

Just compare the white and the purple. In any case, the USD took the day on Friday, of last week. Corrected yesterday…although Monday’s are the slow day of the week…then they are back on it now.

It’s all dynamics. I think yesterday makes all kind of sense. It was the drop they needed, for a boost today. So…now that we’re heading into the US session, I think it’ll be a pile on. You know? They’re probably wanting their turn for some of the pie.

Anyway. We always need to remember that we really don’t know what’s going to happen, but this is what would make most sense. So…if I were a day trader…this would be my angle, for today.

But, I’m not. I have my particular reason for entering, with a templet ready to put down, and the reason for exiting. Swing style. And in the meantime, I just need to know what’s going on, that’s all. Therefore, knowing what’s going on in the market is not the same as how we navigate getting in and out. Right?

Ok. Enough nonsense.
Let’s get on with the day.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (424.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s Tuesday’s totals.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +3.25%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -2.77%.
• Positive flow 6.9%.

Well, the Pound got a serious boost that session. So much so that it edged out the USD (white) for the entire day. They sat at +1.81%. But, that’s saying a lot for the GBP, because they just came off such a losing previous session. Quick turn-around.

Also interesting to me is about the CHF (pink). I know it’s just one day, but this loss today just erased all of the gains they had since the last 4 days. That should be noted. I mean, I don’t know, did their central bank traders not like the way it was heading? Who knows, really. Actually, it all came during this last US session, only. So…maybe not. Anyway. The only thing I’m mostly concerned with is whether they will drop below the JPY (purple). I just put more weight into the line up than anything. It’s all about comparison, to me.

That’s nice.
Well, have a good night. And see ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (414.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s how Wednesday’s market started out.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency +2.11%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency -4.30%.
• Much negative flow -10.6%.

Looks like good old fashion risk-off. And everybody went the other way. Except the CAD (brown). Slightly positive.

The only thing mentionable is how the monthly table is turning out. Ugly. Look.

The JPY (purple) has climbed up closer to the USD (white). I guess once NFP comes, maybe it’ll get more clearer.

Alright. Let’s get on with the day.
See ya later.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (421.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Let’s see more Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +0.35%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -1.23%.
• A bit of negative flow -1.6%.

Ok. So, basically, the Comms pared back a little of their losses last session. And, once again, the CAD goes the other way from those 2. Their continuing on their way down. That’s all there is to it. Oh, I see. They have an interest rate decision today at 10am. Well, the market has been seeing this coming, and I don’t think it’s going to be good. They’ll probably say that they don’t see any kind of rate hike anytime soon. I think they were suppose to have one this year, on the table. So the market probably thinks otherwise. Maybe none. We’ll see what they say.

Anyway. Oh. I did read something very interesting yesterday about the CAD and the USD. Trump apparently has said to them, along with Mexico and some others, that all these trade deals he’s been making are coming with a major condition. That would be that these countries (CAD) will have to make sure their exchange rates favor the US. In any specific reason I couldn’t tell you what that is. In any case, these trade deals are coming with some serious currency stipulations. Like they cannot intervene and decrease their exchange rates. Well, there’s a lot more to it, but, just so you know, we aren’t the only ones concerned what happens in this market. A lot of eyes are on what the exchange rates are.

That’s all good and nice.

So…let’s just play our game…He can play his.
It’s all business.

Alright. Make it a good day today.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (427.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s what happened on Wednesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +1.94%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -2.83%.
• Negative flow -3.26%.
• JPY (purple) most bought currency today +2.70%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency today -4.20%.

The GBP came back from their sliding lately.

The CAD still on the down slope.

Interesting for today. Check out the Majors.

• JPY (purple) +2.70%.
• EUR (yellow) +1.93%.
• USD (white) +1.85%.
• GBP (blue) +1.39%.
• CHF (pink) +1.25%.

The rest (Comms) all pretty deep in the red.

Well, I don’t have much else. Other than the monthly table.

Boy…that JPY met up with his partner, finally.

Everybody’s positioning up before NFP. So, what do we see?

The Comms are slipping up.
The CAD is gonna scrape the bottom.
The Dollar looks to go high.
The JPY want to tail them.
And the Pound does whatever they want.

We really do have to see what NFP brings.
Alright. Have a good night.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (417.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening on this Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid currency +1.19%.
• GBP (blue) most sold -.64%.
• Positive flow 1.9%.

Alright. Not a whole lot happening. More or less slanted to the risk-on side. Actually, the only positive currencies, that session, is the Comms brothers. AUD (red) was as +.61%. Everybody else was in the negative. And not in a lot either.

Seems to be a calm day. Although I would never know if it rocked…then by the end of the session paired back all the gains or losses. Looking like nothing much happened. In any case, the ending numbers are more important, to the swing traders anyway.

Ok. Let’s see how today goes.
Be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (424.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
We got a little more Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid currency that session +1.27%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency that session -2.03%.
• Positive flow 2.04%.

Ok. So we got a bump of the CAD, before the fireworks take place for them.
The GBP still dropping today. We’ll have to see if this continues or if they’ll bounce back. Just look at the blue this week. Yesterday they took the US session. And the day before that, they took the US session. We’ll see what happens. I do have to say…they are the most volatile currency. Right? Like, when they move, they move. Don’t know which way, but they go. And that’s more than the other ones, in comparison.

Other than that. The market isn’t really moving a whole lot, so far today. Who knows…the US session could change that very easily. Maybe the CAD has something in store for us.

Alright. Be smart.
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (430.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s look at the carnage. Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +3.88%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold that session -4.32%.
• Negative flow -1.6%.
• JPY most bought currency today in total +3.94%.
• EUR most sold currency today in total -5.26%.

Well, now we have some movement, huh? All the attention went to the EUR. I heard they talked down global growth, and such. But, whatever it was, it wasn’t good. I guess that would explain the JPY taking the reins. Hey…when things aren’t looking good, they are where you want to go and park it.

What else.
Oh, how about the monthly table.

Yeah boy, the purple (Yen) right up there where they feel comfortable, next to the white (USD). I told you about that. In fact, I was really tooting that horn a couple weeks ago about their divergence. It just wasn’t right. And I remember wondering whether one would go up or the other coming down. Well folks, now we know, the JPY went up.

Oh, I just noticed something, on the first table. The USD just cracked the 0% line, above water. Look. I don’t think that’s a magic thing or anything (that’s silly). It’s just if you look back to the hundreds of data that I have here and look at that context, it usually sits that whoever is above it will tend to stay above it. And likewise below the 0% line. I don’t know…I kind of think it’s some kind of tell. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t trade on that fact, I just keep it a mental note, that’s all.

There’s just a couple of inferences that I have picked up on when it comes to my line up.

• When someone’s at the highest, they tend to stay the highest.
• When someone’s at the lowest, they tend to stay at the lowest.
• The positives will tend to stay positive.
• The negatives will tend to stay negative.

This mostly holds true better on the higher (quarterly) table, moreso than the monthly table.

Ok. Enough nonsense.
All I know is tomorrow’s Friday. And let the fireworks begin. Please be careful.

And by the way…I’ll always be here for ya.
Alright. Make it a good night.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (418.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
How’s NFP Friday starting out?
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency +3.02%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency -1.94%.
• Pretty good negative flow -8.22%.

Well, it’s pretty cut and dry. It was all about the JPY. All the attention went there, buying it up. And I think it’s still risk-off all related. Cause the Comms were all in the negative.

Take a look at the monthly table. Remember when I said that change likes to happen around the turn of a month? Look.

Purple (JPY) was on the move, and now made it to the top.
And I think yesterday’s party is over, for the CAD (brown).
Comms are teetering. Don’t look good.

Alright.
I’ll see ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (425.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Last one before NFP time.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +2.56%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.44%.
• Positive flow 3.02%.

Ok. Well, I’m not going to talk. Got NFP in 5 min from now. I would like to see it. Get a feel for how it goes.

Alright. Here’s the monthly table also.

Ok. See ya on the other side.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (434.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s the fall out.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.51%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -3.24%.
• Positive flow .92%.
• NZD most bought for a total today +3.98%.
• GBP most sold for a total today -6.05%.

So, let’s see. What did the USD (white) do since the NFP report? They dropped -.73%. Not all that much. I seen they had a ridiculous number come out. I bet you there will be a lot of people saying it’s a one off. 20k? Really?

Anyway. They didn’t get all the attention from the money this afternoon. It was a pile on with the Pound. That’s where the attention went to. And as they were taking a beating, the NZD kept up the buying. That would be 2 sessions in a row. Now that’s moving.

Did you notice the JPY took a hit this afternoon also? They dropped -.95%. That’s a bit more than the Dollar. So, they went down together. Like best buds.

That’s nice. Hey, I wanted to throw this out to ya. Like, whoever really gets into it on the weekends, there’s quite a bit of things to look at here. This is since last NFP report. I have both the quarterly running table and the monthly table. All this is nothing but complete days.

Boy…I can’t tell you what this month is showing. Whether it’s risk-on or risk-off, I just don’t know. Cause you got the purple (JPY) and the white (USD) up there. But also the NZD (dark red) and the AUD (red) very close to them. shrug

I don’t know. But you know what? We really don’t need to know what’s gonna happen in the future, cause if we have found our edge, and do what we do, then we should know that over time we will come out on top.

Can you tell I’ve picked up the book TRADING IN THE ZONE ? Been reading that yesterday and today. I really got some more insight from it again. It’s been a few years since I first got it. But now, it’s like relearning a lot of it.

I’ll tell ya. When you ask yourself if you have learned something…don’t take for granted if you think you know something. I see it like this. If you have read that entire book, and you truly can say that you know all of it, and have learned all of it. Then there is absolutely no excuse why you shouldn’t be a master trader.

I believe all the answers are in there.
And it’s about time that I get to the bottom of it, within myself.
And btw…I will.
As long as the earth still moves, I will keep on learning.

Alright. Enough nonsense. It’s the weekend.
Make it a great one!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (421.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what the open looked like.
Quarterly table.

• EUR (yellow) most bid currency +1.07%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency -1.55%.
• Negative flow -1.84%.

Ok. Well, that’s a little interesting. No Asian currencies as with the most attention. All European. Looks like a Brexit outcome or something.

I don’t know. Well, it’s Monday.
Let’s get back at it.

I’ll leave you with the monthly table.

Make the best of it.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (421.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s little more market Monday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +.97%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -.68%.
• Positive flow 1.52%.

Ok. Well, the GBP bounced back. Interesting to see that those 2 currencies are the polar ones (most bought and sold for this quarter running). I don’t know…I don’t think much of that. It really is a crap shoot about who takes a session and losses. We just really never know how it’s gonna turn out. But at least it’s nice to see this every now and then.

Today is a typical Monday, slow moving market. Up to this point anyway. And let’s just remember, that all this is giving us a sense of what happened. And, in this case, it shows us how much of the money has been going where.

This subject actually reminded me of a conversation I had with a trader, last Thursday (I meet once a month, first Thursday of every month, with other Forex traders around this area, a bit of a club). Anyway, this guy was asking what I thought about volume. And it was funny that I was just thinking about that factor earlier in the day.

And I told him my thoughts on it. It is a good indication of things. It tells us how much money is moving. We actually don’t know particularly in which way, but it does tell us that money is coming in, one way or the other. That is a good thing to be aware of, no doubt.

So, after much thought on how I am viewing the market, I believe this whole method of tracking how much the currencies are increasing or decreasing is pretty dog-gone close to the volume indicator. How, you ask?

Well, think about it. All we’re doing here is finding how much of a particular currency is being bought, consecutively, over a period of time. In fact, on a monthly basis (beginning and ending with the month’s calendar). Also since the beginning of the year’s calendar. Also…for a quarter.

I kind of think of it as a longer term volume indication. Cause if money continues one way or the other, and the percentages are getting bigger or smaller, then isn’t that telling us whether one currency is favored than another?

We also can’t forget that everything is relative. It all depends on what time period we are talking about. And I’ve said it before. Our trades should stay within the confines of our analysis’, time wise. I mean, that only makes sense. Needless to say, the time frames that we are looking at should be the right ones. And we all know that there are many of them!

Ok.
I’m done.
Sorry 'bout that …
(You know what I’m gonna say)
Alright. Make it a good day today. Let’s give it the best we got. And keep on learning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (427.4 KB)