Complete Currency Dynamics

Nice work @MikeWolski, good luck to ya with the NFP if you’re trading it :slight_smile: , I’m staying on the sidelines for this one as I’m not familiar with that stuff. I’m usually out of USD pairs an hour before the news.

Thanks!

All good here.

Hey Macilme…
I’m pulling for ya.

Good work with your journal. I know you can do this. It’s not easy, but, it’ll pay off in the end.

I believe you can do it.

Keep seeking, and you will find.

I’m here for ya.
Mike

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Thanks Mike… that helps a lot… I probably wouldn’t be doing this if I hadn’t come across your one thousand page long journal haha :slight_smile:

I’ll be learning a lot in the coming months, it’s a nice feeling know I got strong backings to help me weather the storm ahead :sunglasses:

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Good evening.
That’s a week.
Here we go.

  • GBP (blue) most bid that session +6.51%.
  • USD (white) most sold that session -3.75%.
  • GBP most bought currency today +5.57%.
  • USD most sold currency today -3.15%.

What do we have in that table. Running %'s since the beginning of the year. And the Pound is running away with it. Not even comparable to any other currency, being bought this year. And if anyone pays attention, those placements rarely switch up.

The GBP of course has pulled way ahead of everyone else, since April 1st. The NZD (dark red) and the CHF (pink) together are substantially being bought more than any other currency. Really, everyone else is in the middle.

Aggregately speaking, the Comms are on the bottom. And the Majors are on top. Or I should say around the middle.

The USD took a real hit today, NFP. Interesting.

So…we’ve been talking about the turn of the month. What do we have so far. The USD (white) and the JPY (purple) were climbing, up until NFP time. But got shot down. The Dollar moreso. And the GBP is just taking off. Like, today was a big one for them. Whatever the reason was, they got my attention now. Soooo much attention went to buying them today. And the Comms aren’t even putting up a fight. Their down.

Alright. That’s about all I can deduce up to this point. Would we call this risk-on sentiment? Uhh…I honestly don’t know. It’s probably slanted more towards risk-off, cause all the safe haven currencies are above the reddish (Comms) ones. Right? Couple that with the lone bull GBP doing a solo run.

That’s how I see it.
And that’s nice.
It’s the weekend.
Enjoy it!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (927.2 KB)

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Good morning.
Here’s how Monday started.
Quarterly table.

  • JPY (purple) most bid that session +4.05%.
  • CAD (brown) most sold that session -2.88%.

Monthly table.

Well, that is purely risk-off buying. And how about that gap with the Yen. Wow.

Alright. Don’t have time to talk.
See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (934.4 KB)

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Good morning.
More Monday market.

Quarterly table.

  • CAD (brown) most bid that session +1.64%.
  • CHF (pink) most sold that session -1.27%.

Monthly table.

The CAD (brown) bounced back from previous session. But, for today, it’s still risk-off environment.

Alright.
Busy, busy, busy today.
I’ll see ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (944.5 KB)

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Good evening.
Let’s see how Monday turned out.

  • CAD (brown) most bid that session +1.32%.
  • NZD (dark red) most sold that session -1.04%.
  • JPY (purple) most bought currency today +3.00%.
  • NZD most sold currency today -2.96%.

Monthly table.

All you have to do is look at the ending %'s on Friday to today’s ending %'s. That tells the story. Which is the Comms are falling. And the Yen is rising (safe havens also).

I think it’s gonna be interesting with the AUD (red) here real soon with their interest rate decision. If they give any kind of indications of bad news, it’s not going to look good for them. Or…is all the negative %'s already priced in?

You know, I heard the saying (again this year) which is…Sell in May and go away. That means sell stocks, and buy bonds. Basically translated into our currencies means buy safe havens (JPY, USD, CHF) and sell Comms (reddish ones).

It’s poised that way already. Right?

Alright. Enough nonsense.
Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (937.4 KB)

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Good morning.
Tuesday’s Asian results.

-AUD (red) most bid that session +3.19%.
-USD (white) most sold that session -1.34%.

So doubt the AUD got the bid. And we know why, right?

Did this kick start some Comm bidding? Uh…I don’t think so. Cause the other 2 aren’t showing signs of any buying.

The only other attention went to the USD (white). That got sold off.

Alright.
Got to run.
I’ll see ya sometime later on in the day.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (946.4 KB)

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Good evening.
Here’s Tuesday’s results.

  • JPY (purple) most bid that session +2.76%.
  • AUD (red) most sold that session -1.39%.
  • JPY most bought currency today +3.77%.
  • CAD (brown) most sold currency today -1.53%.

Monthly table.

It’s all the Yen today, plain and simple. Sure, the AUD (red) had a good spurt higher during the Asian session, only to fall back down. But, they did end the day in the positive for today ( +2.06% ).

The NZD (dark red) kept falling today. And speaking of them, they got their turn coming up here real soon. So look out. Will they do the same thing? shrug We’ll have to see.

All we really have is a risk-off environment going on. Always beware of a switch during the mid week. The market likes to do that.

Alright. Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (942.1 KB)

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Good morning.
Here’s Wednesday’s start.
Quarterly table.

  • EUR (yellow) most bid that session +1.02%.
  • NZD (dark red) most sold that session -1.56%.

Monthly table.

And see, when we want to know where most of the attention goes to, it’s right there with the mosts. The Euro got most of the buying. And the NZD got most selling. I think we should know why. Their interest rate decision meeting. It probably didn’t go well. Hmm…did they cut rates? Well, I’ll find out later.

Anyway. All seems to be following the flow.

Alright. Got to run.
See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (940.5 KB)

Good morning.
More Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.

  • CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.94%.
  • GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.37%.

Definitely risk-off sentiment, continuing. This time it was the Swiss’ turn. And both other safe havens (USD (white) and the JPY (purple) took a good bid.

Monthly table.

Let me clue you in on something. The only pair I trade, and watch closely, is the AUD/JPY. Therefore I have extra data on that. I’m gonna show you in a minute. But, the reason why I picked that pair is because it’s the one pair you can look at, correctly, and discern what the sentiment is, in aggregate. Risk-on would equate to a rising chart. Aussie strong and Yen weak. Right? Likewise if the sentiment was risk-off, in the market, you would see that chart going down.

Well, what have my numbers been lately? I’ve been saying it’s risk-off. Now, let me show you this in more detail. Ready?


That right there is the running %'s since the beginning of the year. Between the AUD and the JPY only. Daily end totals. And it’s the spread between them. On the left side, where the 41.57% number is, is April 10th. Up to the present. Well, yesterday’s close. And you can see how many trading days there was since the beginning of the year (90). So, sometime since the middle of April we had a top. That was the last time the risk assets were in control. Was all downhill since then.


This is broken up by sessions. Of course the purple is the Yen, and the red is the Aussie. Those %'s are their running %'s on a monthly basis. Meaning, starts and stops according to the calendar. Those are individual numbers.
And just so you know, those %'s mean how they compared to all of the rest of the currencies.


That was what April looked like for them individually. Those are daily running %'s. Of course you can see the volume of that pair. Daily end volume for AUD/JPY.

Well, that puts a lot of stuff into perspective for me. Hey, I got a lot more of that in my excel sheet. All you have to do is go there and check it out. It’s down around the 250 area. And across the beginning of the alphabet. Basically, bottom left on my My Daily’s sheet.

Alright. Let’s get on with this day.
Make it a good day. And I’ll see ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (945.4 KB)

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That is a lot of information (and a lot of work) haha :slight_smile: . I wish I could use Excel this way. I’ll definitely be checking this one out.:+1:

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Good evening.
Wednesday’s results.
Quarterly table.

  • USD (white) most bid that session +.99%.
  • CHF (pink) most sold that session -1.69%.

Still risk-off. This time it was the USD turn. Makes sense. It was their session. In fact, last session was the Swiss session also. Interesting.

Monthly table.

The Swiss did take a hit that session. Pretty much retraced most of their gains from last session. But, the Yen (purple) continues stronger.

The Comms (reddish) are out of it.

Will we see some kind of bump this week? I mean, you would think so, right?

Check this out. I’ll show you an aggregate shot of the JPY against all of the other currencies. This is the Daily time frame.


Talk about at some support levels. Either somethings gonna break…or we should see some kind of bump. Right?

Let’s see what happens.
Alright. See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (947.0 KB)

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Good morning.
Thursday’s start.
Quarterly table.

  • JPY (purple) most bid that session +1.59%.
  • AUD (red) most sold that session -1.51%.

That’s our risk-off pair. Sentiment still continuing.

Monthly table.

Boy, the ends are getting more and more out there huh?

Alright. Got to run.
I’ll see ya at the close today. Busy, busy, busy.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (956.4 KB)

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Good evening.
Thursday’s results.
Quarterly table.

  • CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.66%.
  • USD (white) most sold that session -1.13%.
  • CHF most bought currency today +2.88%.
  • AUD (red) most sold currency today -1.31%.

Monthly table.

Well, I was watching the market this afternoon. And the way it looks, the Yen looks overextended. I’m thinking of a correction tomorrow. Look out for that. It is Friday. And for this week, we haven’t seen anything of that sorts yet. What a better time than at the end of the week. So, beware.

Alright. Make it a good night.
I’ll see ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (951.2 KB)

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Good morning.
It’s Friday.

Quarterly table.

  • AUD (red) most bid that session +.47%.
  • GBP (blue) most sold that session -.55%.

Monthly table.

Well, the market corrects just a little, from what’s been happening. But, surely not enough to change anything. I kind of think the market is waiting for the 2 heads to come to an agreement (you know what I’m talking about).

Let’s just see how today turns out.
Alright. See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (959.3 KB)

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Good morning.
Still Friday. Here’s more of it.
Quarterly table.

  • EUR (yellow) most bid that session +.64%.
  • CAD (brown) most sold that session -.90%.

Those are some low numbers. The market just isn’t moving like normal. And I know why, now.

The tariffs went into affect at midnight, about 8 hours ago. The market was hoping for a delay, which was a possibility. But nope. China got hit pretty hard. This all spells bad news for the world economy. Meaning the risk-off sentiment is more prevalent.

Monthly table.

Look. The market was definitely hoping for better news than what came out. Look at the AUD/JPY chart. This is 1hr time frame. Taken just now at 8:30am.


If you count the candles from the end, the 9th one was our midnight. It spiked up, only to come back down. And then about 4 candles before that time the market is wanting up. But…nope. The consensus is a no. So now, we’re in a holding pattern, until something happens.

I’m actually surprised that the market didn’t really fall. I mean, that was some bad news. Look. No support levels were broken or anything. There’s about 2 minor levels below where price is at right now that could be tested, but are not. Interesting.

Therefore, I will be looking for an up move more than a down move. But, of course, we’ll have to see what the market ends up doing. Right?

Alright. I’ll see ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (967.3 KB)

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Good evening.
That’s a week. Let’s look at it.
Yearly table.

  • CAD (brown) most bid that session +2.43%.
  • JPY (purple) most sold that session -2.00%.
  • CHF (pink) most bought currency today +2.15%.
  • JPY most sold currency today -2.69%.

In this context, running %'s since the beginning of the year, what do we have? No one is taking out the Pound (blue) for the most bought currency to date. By a long shot. See the amount there? And on the other end of it, well, the Swiss (pink) has that spot. No challengers. The Yen (purple) is slowly moving their way out. They were in the 20’s area for a long time. And the NZD (dark red) has been quite low, ever since they got bombed a couple months ago.

Quarterly table.

I think it’s interesting to see the resilience of the EUR (yellow). The Yen (purple) was on the way up there, just to get knocked down today. Today was a retracement day. Just look how far they climbed this week. It was due. And the Dollar (white) is just hanging on, not really moving all that much. Although they are more of a bid, cause their positive % running since April 1st.

Monthly table.

And for this month, all by itself, the Yen has it. And the Comms (AUD (red), NZD (dark red), CAD (brown) ) are low, relatively speaking to the others. Man…God help the NZD. No buying there, right? Everyone else is not really mentionable in this context.

Alright. It’s the weekend.
Make it a good one.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (954.9 KB)

P.S. — I’ll throw in the AUD/JPY chart. No charge.


That’s Mar 25th, daily, till the present. Yearly running % spread between them 2. Up is Aussie stronger, down is Yen stronger. So, how far will this correct? We’ll have to see.

Good morning.
It’s Monday.

Quarterly table.

  • JPY (purple) most bid that session +1.61%.
  • AUD (red) most sold that session -2.32%.

It’s back to risk-off. And those are some pretty big numbers for a Monday.

Monthly table.

We can see that correction on Friday was just that, a correction. The trend is staying in tact. With the Yen (purple) leading the way.

Alright.
Have a good day today.
See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (963.5 KB)

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Super informative as usual. :blush: Haha. Just wanna drop by your thread to say kudos for consistently putting out very helpful updates. :blush: You’re one of the people I look up to in the community! :smiley:

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