Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Wednesday’s results.
Monthly table.

• USD (white) most bid currency that session +1.73%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency -1.49%.
• JPY (purple) most bought currency today +2.08%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency today -1.89%.

Well, today looks more like risk-off than anything.
Let me show you something slightly different. This is a table of strictly what they ended up for the day. Each day is separate. This is this month.

You can see who the top 2 most bid currencies are today. And if anybody has been paying attention to me, you’ll notice how them 2 are buds. They travel together, most of the time. But we can see the divergence today with the AUD (red), and the NZD (dark red). Also the EUR (yellow) and CHF (pink) usually travel together. Evident today.

I think this chart shows us different aspects of the dynamics, much easier. Like, how much a currency typically ends up, and down, % wise in a day. Then we could exploit the days by themselves if we wanted to. Mondays will be different than Fridays.

Alright. I’m done here.
Make it a good night. See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Thursday.
Monthly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid currency that session +1.25%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency that session -2.29%.

More risk-off than anything. With the exception of the CAD. They’ve caught a bid. And the Aussie got hammered.

Got to run.
I’ll see ya at the close today.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Ok.
We’re (I’m) gonna change things up around here.
Still considered Currency Dynamics, don’t worry.

Here’s the monthly running %'s, since around NFP.

That’s nice, I know. You’ve probably seen that.
But, I’ve been working on something a little different. I’ll explain.
Each session is tallied up all by itself. And under the US session is the total for that day only. So…no running totals whatsoever (thank God, I know).

Let’s see. I’ll ask the question of what happened today…

• The CHF was the most bid currency today. How did this happen? It all took place during London morning time. And got hit the hardest during the US session.
• The AUD was the most sold currency today. How did this happen? It all was during their Asian session. Then to get some back, but not all of it.
• The risk-on currencies are both on the bottom. How did this happen? They got hit during Asia. Both the most sold. But, you can see that it was pretty much only the Aussie getting the selling attention, cause the NZD wasn’t sold off all that much (-.31%).

Basically…this is a story. And I can tell it. So can you. But this is going to take some time for you to see what I’m talking about. So, that’s just some start for ya. I’ll be doing less explaining on how all this works and more explaining on what transpired in a day.

So, different set up from now on.
Slightly different dynamics like this coming.

Alright. Have a good night.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday.
Let’s see what happened today so far.

• JPY most bid currency that session.
• NZD most sold currency that session.

Actually, all 3 Comms are the only ones in the negative, that session. And it’s by quite a bit. Right? The most attention went to the NZD. Now that’s a lot of selling (-2.55%).

The Yen is being bought pretty good along with the EUR. But, only the majors was being bought. The Yen continued their buying since the last session. And looks like the Asians kept selling their 2 Comms, since last time they were at their desks.

Alright. Got to run.
I’ll see ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Continuing with Friday. Let’s look at it.

• JPY most bid currency that session +1.06%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -1.33%.

We have the Yen as the consensus today for what’s most bought. That’s 2 sessions in a row. Interesting. I wonder how they are going to round out the day. And so, if you want to see how they are fairing for the week, just add up the daily totals (+.11%, -.15%, +2.08%, +.91%) so far. That would be +2.95% coming in to today. So basically, their on a tear. Will there be some profit taking at the end here? shrug It’s quite a strong trend they are on.

Look. It’s all relative. But what I see most standing out is, the NZD. Let’s see what they are standing at coming in to today. - 6.77% Holy cow. I feel bad for them. And I bet the Aussie isn’t too far behind.

What about the EUR? What can we say about them this week. Well, their +2.36% coming in to today. Not too far below the Yen. Right? I do have to say that they are traveling alongside the Swiss for the most part. And so for the reason the Swiss did well yesterday was their central bank decision. So that explains the divergence between those 2.

What about the Dollar? Up +5.08 going into today. Holy smokes. That’s not one down day this week. And so far today they are on the up. So now we are on their session. Will it be some profit taking? shrug We’ll have to see.

See. With each and every currency there’s a story to be told. I believe the more you pay attention, and in the correct context (the 3 sessions), there can be clues to what might happen next.

As for me. I’m waiting for a Comm bounce. And as you should know by now, it’s not happening. Just how low they both can go…well…it’s pretty dog-gone low. So I’m waiting. That’s all.

Alright. Got to run.
I’ll be seeing you at the close.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning. On the weekend.
I’m gonna give a summary of the market.

What happened this week?

Well, for Friday. Boy, it was ALL safe haven buying.

But for the week in total.

• NZD was the biggest mover. And it was a sell -11.65%.
• USD was the most bought +9.33%.
• Safe havens all the way on top of the risk-on currencies.

But, what does this mean in the context of this month?

Those are the running %'s since June 1st. We can plainly see that this week was the flip of last week. Complete opposite. The Comms were on top dominating the safe havens, which were on the bottom of the pack, when the month first got rolling out. But something happened just after NFP (which was the last major economic indicator event).

But something was consistent throughout the month so far. Guess what (who) that is?
The EUR.
Sure, the big boys had a great day yesterday, but you also need to know that the EUR have been the most bought currency this month, so far. But, look at the %'s. They are all telling. Someone could have in their mind that the USD and the JPY are on a tear, after what happened yesterday. But where are they sitting after just 2 weeks? About dead even on the month. Right? So basically, nothing to sneeze at. They just retraced what was lost to them during the previous week.

We don’t know what’s going to happen next week. Honestly. But we should at least know what’s been happening. So therefore, let’s go back a little, on the weekly time frames, to around March.

I’ll help you here. What’s been the trend, leading up to this past week? It’s been safe haven buying, mostly lead by the JPY (purple). The USD (white) and the JPY, for the most part, follow each other. And the Swiss (pink) has been climbing along with them also.

Now the Comms (AUD, NZD, CAD) have been on the decline. Since Mar for the NZD, and April for the AUD. Now the CAD runs their own game. Their not always tied to the other 2. And same goes with the Pound.

Look at just the NZD and the AUD. You can see that last week was a very good buying week for the NZD. But…was it for the Aussie? Nope. They were not in sinc. So that tells me that the risk-on wasn’t in full bloom. Although CAD did catch a bid. But, in my mind, a full risk-on buying sentiment consists of all 3 of them going one way. And the same for risk-off buying. All 3 safe havens should be moving in the same direction. Although the Yen is always the most dominant, with that. Therefore, just watch the purple if you want to know whether there’s risk-off buying. And it’ll be that much stronger when the Swiss joins in.

Look. You simply can’t sum up the market in either risk-off or risk-on. It’s not always black and white. Cause you have to remember each currency can be traded with the mindset of how it’s doing all by itself. Like because of the condition of it’s economy, etc… But also, these currencies can be traded with the mindset of how they are relating to each other, meaning not all by itself. Like the differences between their interest rates, whether safe haven protection, etc. So basically, there can be so many different reasons. That’s why there will be divergences of some magnitude. But usually there will always be some sense of whether there’s more of a risk-on or more risk-off reason. If there is anything that can be certain in the market (and that’s a bold statement), it would have to be whether there is more risk-on or more risk-off. That is a reason for money to go somewhere. Think about that.

That’s all good and nice. I know.
But what do we have?

• Well, we are in a risk-off buying landscape going into the summer months.
• We are heading into the last month of the quarter. Vacation time is coming.
• This quarter has all been mostly risk-off buying. Will this continue to the end of it?
• Will we see any kind of change for the summer season?

Well, I think these are some questions and points we need to keep in mind. See, knowing these things give you some kind of edge in the market. I, myself, can’t imagine not knowing these things. If you’re a trader, you need to know the environment you are playing in. You can be a little more smarter than those who just are looking at lines on a chart trying to guess which way it’s gonna go next. Believe it or not, there are reasons why it moves the way it moves. And I don’t think it’s all that much of a secret.

Ok. I’m done with that nonsense.
Make it a good weekend.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Monday. Here’s how it started out.

• The NZD was served up during the Asian session.
• The Swiss was the most sold off.
• Risk-on buying. With the Swiss and Yen being sold off.

Monthly table.

Let’s see what this week brings.
Alright. See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Monday rolling out still.

We can see that the EUR was the most bid currency during their morning session. But that still leaves the NZD as the most bought currency for the day so far (underneath is the running totals).

And for that session both the AUD, and the JPY were being sold off. But it leaves the JPY as the most sold for the day so far. Actually by a lot. See it there?

And of course the Swiss is tracking with the EUR during that session (both in the top).

So, that’s basically how today is unraveling so far. The NZD is having a good day. But their brother (Aussie) isn’t following too much. The Yen is sliding. With their counterpart (USD) not as much. The Pound ain’t doing much. Along with the CAD. So far that is.

All we have left is the American session. Let’s see how that goes.

Alright. I’ll be busy later on today. So I won’t be able to tally them up until sometime afterwards.
I’ll be seeing ya though.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Tuesday. Let’s see what’s been happening this week so far.

You can see every session all by itself. And underneath the sessions is the running total. And since this Asian session is the first, we don’t need a running total, right? But let’s see what happened yesterday.

The NZD fell apart. Remember they were having a good day? Yeah, up until US came along. That’s when the Comms got shut down. And the 2 big cats took charge (JPY, USD).

Well, the Yen kept with the domination. You can plainly see it there. With the Dollar second to being most sold off. But the Aussie getting hammered.

The EUR and the CHF has been bidding again. Boy…that EUR. They are definitely on the up. It’s been a slow, but sure upward move.

A little side note. For whoever hasn’t been paying attention, for one session, concerning how much is a lot or not goes like this. Around 1 - 1.5% is the normal. Around 2 - 2.5% is a lot. That’s per session.

Alright. Got to run.
I’ll be seeing ya at the close today.
Been quite busy lately.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Tuesday’s results.

What happened? I’ll tell ya.
The Yen started out with the momentum from yesterday. But that went downhill, ever since London. Then the US just hammered them. But with that good start they ended up being the second most bought currency, in the day total (-.40%). And how about their counterpart (USD)? Right along them. Actually, look, during this last session, all 3 safe haven currencies were what was being sold off. Right? That only spells risk-on.

Speaking of that, how about the Comms? The NZD started the second session with a bang. And the Aussie joined them. Then the Aussie, during the last session, took the reigns in a major way. I think the market has been waiting to do that lately.

And I don’t know what happened to the EUR today. But they simply got demolished. Hey, they can afford it. Cause that’s all they’ve been doing lately is moving high. We’ll be able to see this on another table (I’ll get there in a minute).

So, let’s look at the ending results (the column under the US session). The only point I want to make is that the totals for the day just never really tell a good story for the day. I believe seeing the 3 sessions tell a better. Like the latest…I sure seems like the momentum (London & US) is favoring the Comms. Or I should say risk-on. But you wouldn’t know that just by seeing the daily total. Know what I mean? Cause the Aussie got off on the wrong foot. But really got back the pips as the day went on.

This is the month running %'s. You can see how the EUR (yellow) has some space for a retracement . Especially if you want to compare them to the US Dollar (white).

We’ll have to see how far up the Comms want to climb. Just remember what happened last week. They had such the momentum after the first week of the month. Only to lose all of it, and then some, the very next week. So, just beware.

Alright.
Be careful out there.
I’ll see ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Wednesday.

This result is a weird one. Looks like the Yen got most of the buying. But, that’s not a whole lot. Just over 1%. That’s not telling saying a whole lot.

Also quite different is the amounts of %'s of everyone else. All that is amounting to like nothing. So, I don’t know what to make of this market. How about…calm.

Alright. I’ll be seeing you in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
More Wednesday.

• GBP most bid that session +1.55%.
• JPY most sold that session -1.47%.

And then underneath that is the running total for the day so far. What’s most evident to me is the Yen. Man…their all over the place. Most bought to most sold. I guess this tells me that the market is not in a consensus. There’s a lot of indecision. Or maybe even a lot of profit taking going on. You know, more short term counter trend trading than momentum type trend trading. In any case, it’s all back and forth. Right?

The next thing standing out to me is the Swiss. Actually, all three European currencies were being bought up pretty good that session (theirs). And so, for the day running, they are on top compared to all the others.

And that is leaving the Comms on the bottom, most sold currencies, for the day running. I guess there goes their momentum they had from yesterday, right? Gone. Things are getting reset.

And you know why, right? Cause in about 4 or 5 hours from now we will be seeing the FOMC (US) interest rate decision. That’s at 2pm (ET). I think the markets are coiling up for something. Well, the word on the street is that we (the US) are going to start cutting interest rates soon. I kind of think it’s going to be next month. But who knows. I think Trump also is pressuring the Fed about cutting the rates. Needless to say, what’s going to be said and not said will have some kind of impact on the market.

Don’t ask me in what way. Man, I just don’t know. If the Dollar tanks (go down), then what therefore will go up? See…cutting rates should make it go down. And hiking up rates normally makes it go up. Cause there’s more demand for it. But my question would be if there’s a rate cut, then where does money want to go? Risk-on…or Risk-off? And we’re talking about the US Dollar here. The world’s reserve currency. The thing that’s being used for most commodities. Also, currently, it’s the one that has the best interest rate going. And when that falls, who’s looking better? Well class, the answer is the CAD. Their interest rate is sitting at 1.75%. But see, the US is sitting on 2.50%. And even if they cut them, they’ll still be the only one above 2.0%. Which will be the one to go to. Ok. Look. Here it is.

• USD = 2.50%
• CAD = 1.75%
• NZD = 1.50%
• AUD = 1.25%
• GBP = 0.75%
• EUR = 0.00%
• JPY = -.10%
• CHF = -.75%

Now maybe we can understand why the CAD has been a good buy this year. Right? That’s one of the reasons.

Anyway. Just brace for whatever happens later on today. All we want to do is know where the market (money) wants to go. Which is called the trend.

I’ll be here to tell you where it’s going. And where it’s not going.

Alright. See ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Wednesday’s results.

• CAD most bought currency that session +3.18%.

• USD most sold currency that session -2.34%.

• GBP most bought for a total today +2.64%.

• USD most sold for a total today -2.81%.

Well, things flew today during that US interest rate decision time. I watched it. Only for like up to a half hour later. And I seen the Dollar just dive across the board. Also the Yen was with it. The Comms were all on the up. But…it wasn’t too long afterwards that the Yen started gaining strength. The Comms came back on down at the same time. But not the CAD. Boy…they got strong. And I don’t think it’s because of oil. Remember my last post? How I gave you everyone’s interest rates? And who’s the next best currency? Well, it’s just a theory of mine.

Anyway. That’s nice. I know.

How about a daily running chart of everyone.

Well, that’s what’s been happening this month so far. I kind of think we might be staying with the risk-off sentiment. I don’t know. There’s just no reason for risk-on. After seeing the Comms shoot pretty high against the Dollar, and the Yen, I thought Risk-on is coming back. And maybe a lot of others were thinking that. But nope. That’s not how it ended. I think money is moving to the safe havens. Maybe not to the Dollar right now, but there’s a couple other ones, right?

Let’s just see how this week turns out, first.
Then the month.
Then the quarter.

Be careful.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Thursday.

• NZD most bid currency that session +1.62%.
• USD most sold currency that session -3.01%.

Looks like Asia got their turn with the Dollar. Man, that’s a whole lot in one session.

And I wouldn’t quite say that it’s all risk-on. Sure, the NZD has a nice session, but they are about the only one. Everyone else isn’t really moving. Just so you know, the average % that takes a session = 1.80% (this year’s average so far).

Here’s the month running.

Alright.
Make it a good day today. I’ll see ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Thursday’s results.

• JPY most bid that session +3.02%.
• EUR most sold that session -1.95%.
• CHF most bought currency today +4.99%.
• USD most sold currency today -5.04%.

Wow. I don’t know. Something is happening, I think. We’ve had some big moves today. Actually, this week. Let’s make some sense of this. We go to the %'s first.

The Swiss. We’re talking like 5% today. That’s monstrous. And where did that come from? Is that something of an economic point? I didn’t see anything come out today. Well, what about trailing with the EUR? Uhh…nope. They are falling apart this week. So then, is it a safe haven thing? Just look at the top 2 currencies this past session. Both safe havens. I’m gonna say that’s the reason.

The Comms (reddish ones) can’t get anywhere. They tried on Tuesday, but just got shot down the very next day. And the EUR going lower this week isn’t helping the risk-on situation. They swing more that way, than the other. Well, they are considered a risk-on currency in respects to the Dollar.

That’s nice. Let’s see the daily running %'s for this month.

I think that’s pretty messy. Like, no conformity. It’s probably the USD’s fault. Look at that white line, huh? We thought we were going up. But not anymore. Well, up to this point anyway. The other 2 big cats are moving up though.

Well, I think tomorrow will be interesting. I’m just wondering if the USD will join up with the other 2 sometime.

Alright.
Make it a good night.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday.

• AUD most bid that session +.31%.
• NZD most sold that session -.44%.

Wow. Look at those numbers. Those are very low. Like…there’s nothing moving. That only means that I don’t have anything to talk about (and I’m sure your not upset).

Let’s see the month in total.

Man…the only thing that jumps out at me is the Swiss. Just look at that jump yesterday. Well, all I have to say is that we should not forget about this. I think it’s a safe haven move.

Alright. Make it a good day today.
I’ll see ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
More Friday market.

Now we have some movement, as opposed to the last session. What do we got?

• EUR most bid that session +2.72%.
• NZD most sold that session -1.72%.

The EUR woke back up. There were looking up for some time now, but this week set them back. Well, up until now. They boosted out a 2.72% session. That’s pretty major. So, I’m gonna say that they are still looking to go higher. We’ll have to see how they end this week. Positive or negative? Ok. I’ll run them…

• Coming in to today they are sitting at -1.98%.
• From the open all the way up to now they are sitting at +.77%.

So, if for the rest of the day today they don’t lose .77%, then they’ll end the week in the positive. Right?

You have to see that the Dollar isn’t laying down today. I kind of have a feeling that during their session they just might continue the boost higher today. We’ll see though.

The NZD is being sold off. And the Aussie joined them during the last session.

The CAD is still a bid. And not a sell.

The Swiss is still being bid up. This time their along with the ride with big brother (EUR).

Look. The only change we can possibly have is to see some Commodity currencies going higher (AUD,NZD). And that’s not happening. The safe havens are taking their turns. Oh…and the EUR is now back in the game. So therefore, I can call it the Majors that are in charge going into the last hours of the week.

Well, watch the Dollar during this session. Hey, I can be wrong. Surely. But it won’t surprise me one bit if they crack, say, 2.0% higher on the session. Let’s just see what happens.

Alright. It’s close to the weekend.
Make it a good day!
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
That’s a complete week. Let’s look at it.

• GBP most bought currency that session +2.88%.
• CAD most sold currency that session -3.90%.
• EUR most bought currency today +4.22%.
• CAD most sold currency today -3.02%.

For the week in total.

• CHF most bought.
• USD most sold.

Well, for today it sure does look like it was all about the European currencies. And the CAD got dumped. That was probably some profit taking for the week. I guess. I just didn’t see what kind of news came out for them, if that would be the case.

Boy, the Dollar got sold off during their session. As you know, I was dead wrong about that. I thought it would go the other way. In any case, I got my money on them going up next week. I placed an order before the market closed. We’ll see what happens. USD/CHF

How about some visuals.

Swiss and the EUR on top. CAD close third.
USD and the AUD are dead last.

Here’s the running %'s for the year.

Alright. It’s the weekend. I’m probably the only one working around here. But I’m done now.
Make it a great weekend!
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Monday.

• AUD most bid currency that session +2.19%.
• JPY most sold currency that session -2.07%.

Well, it’s right there. All along party lines. Risk-on sentiment buying. At the top are all the Comms. On the bottom are all safe havens.

Ok. So that’s how it’s starting out this week. This is the last week of the month, and quarter. So be careful. Things can fly.

This is the month running %'s.

See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s still Monday.

• CHF most bid currency that session +1.62%.
• NZD most sold currency that session -1.02%.

Looks like we had a retracement from what happened last session, right? All you have to do is compare those 2 sessions. The 2 most bought became the 2 most sold. Likewise, the 2 most sold became the 2 most bought.

But, for the day in total so far we still have the Comms all up on top. With the Dollar and Yen dragging bottom. Although the Swiss got boosted up away from them 2. So, that’s how today is rolling out so far. Let’s take a gander at what the quarter is looking like. Cause it’s coming to a close soon.

So…what do you see?
Let me help you.
Who has the most running %? The NZD ( -26.80%). That tells us, for this quarter, who’s been the most active moving currency. Right? Only makes sense. I mean, everyone starts out at 0.0% on April 1st.

And while we’re on them, what else can we deduce about down low there? Both brothers (NZD, AUD) have had the most selling than any other combination of currencies’. And that would be the Comms, or should I say risk-on ones. If you look back on my excel, we can see that the NZD fell from grace at the very end of March. And that’s not to say that they haven’t had any good buying days, it’s just that over days and days of trading the consensus has been more selling than buying. I just looked back. They took 2 most bought days in April. 2 in May. And 3 in Jun so far.

Other interesting things for this quarter is that the EUR is in it to win it, looks like. Really, the buying has mostly been between the Yen and the EUR. And just recently the Swiss has come out of nowhere, for up.

And honestly, the Dollar has been nothing but back and forth this quarter. I would say mostly it’s been elevated. Just lately it’s come back down to around the 0 area.

All we can do is watch for any kind of real change to occur. Just remember, they do like to happen around the turn of a month.

Alright. See ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)