I’m just sitting here thinking, some more. Diagnosis wise. You know, here’s another thing to think about.
What moves the currencies the most?
Economic Indicators. Aka…news.
So, let’s go through what we got coming this week.
I see, for the London morning time on Monday, that the EUR has some inflation data coming out. Definitely a possible sentiment mover. We’ll see. Just need to be aware of that. Not much else to worry about for Monday.
But, Tuesday, at the open for Asia, the AUD will be having some Meeting Minutes. That’s a talk on what their central bank thinks about their economy. Again, possible way to move that currency one way or the other. And the way it’s looking, boy, it would be a good thing that they would paint a not-so-good picture. Because they are already down in the dumps. Look. I don’t really care, but it would be nice to see things go one way or the other, right?
Tuesday, a lot of attention will be going the way of the USD. They got housing data, Redbook. Definitely the market will be watching. Also on that day during the US session the Global Dairy Trade Price Index is coming out. Well, that can possibly affect the Commodity Currencies ( NZD, AUD). Also Tuesday very late in the day the NZD will be looked at because of their current account numbers.
Wednesday, for the open, maybe the JPY. I don’t know though. They don’t always move because of their economic numbers, but moreso for risk-off reasons. But, for some reason, I think that might be changing. Maybe the central banks are starting to see some changes regarding their financial economic situation. I just don’t know. We’ll see. Anyway, for Wed. the GBP has a slew of data coming out. Possible way to push them one way or the other. Also CAD has important data (inflation #'s). We’ll see how that all goes. The USD also have some data then (existing home sales). But, as I have in my mind, our home data hasn’t been so good. I kind of think it’s on the downside. I feel that our country is not all that moving up anymore. We are late in the business cycle. It is only a matter of time till we get the next turn down, economically speaking. Just look at the equity markets (finally cracking apart). Oh, I see that Wednesday also has our FOMC rate hike decision. That’s like 2:00pm my time. Pretty late in the day.
Well, well, well…yep folks. Be ready for that. The USD will be moving. Sure, you will hear a lot of economists, analysts, saying that everything is already priced into the Dollar. But don’t forget, the rates are rising! No matter how you slice it, interest rates going up means money for a lot of investors, traders. How about the ‘carry trade’ traders? I’m not one for that, but just know that investors will be trying to take advantage of the difference in interest rates, between the currencies. The Dollar will be moving. Ahhh…is that why on Friday it rose up. Oh, I bet. See, traders see these things in advance.
Look. Be aware of that. And know that price never goes straight. It’s pretty much, up…down…back up…down…You just have to see it over some time span. Really.
Wednesday ends the day with some major NZD news (GDP).
Thursday starts the open with major unemployment news for the AUD. Yep, a market mover. What we all want is to see the slant get more. Which lately has been for the downside. Right? But we have to wait and see, that’s all. Ohh…the JPY have an interest rate decision just after the day starts. Well, they aren’t going to raise it, but, the market does like the attention though. Maybe a spike up, then right back down. I don’t know. But, is noteworthy. Then the GBP got some stuff coming for them Thursday, when they get into session. shrug We’ll see. Retail Sales. Hey…their economy seems to be heating up actually. If it wasn’t for Brexit, they’d be raising rates. We should be aware of that stuff. Ohh…also I see here that they will be voting for the interest rates. Meeting Minutes. Quantitative Easing mentioning. So, be aware of some market moving GBP, definitely.
Friday will begin with some JPY inflation data. Very possible moves there. And the GBP strikes again. Friday, early for them, have some GBP data. Expected to increase. I’m telling ya, they are overheating. And the only way to curb that is by raising interest rates. If it weren’t for dog-gone Brexit…
Friday also has some CAD, and USD major news. Be aware of that also. Man…much USD news. I even see the CAD has a business outlook survey. That might be interesting. Hey, if it’s said that they are looking good, and are even a little concerned with their inflation rates (being on the high side of 2%), then look out, money will sniff it out and start buying the CAD. Don’t forget, a lot of times the CAD will follow the USD. Oh, I’ve seen their relationship time and time again. Kind of reminds me of the EUR and the CHF. They are trading partners don’t forget (USD,CAD).
Well, let’s look at this. Big picture wise. Definitely looks like a lot of market moving causes coming our way this week. And mostly coming from the USD. Also edging the Majors, more than the Comms. In my mind, I think I’m watching what the USD does. Cause that’s what I think the market will be paying attention to.
You have to see this stuff coming. That is how the market plays. And when the time comes, it might not always continue. You heard of buying the rumor, sell the news? That’s what that means. Like, buy now, the USD, but when time comes, it just might go down. Unless the trend is strong. Then it’ll be like, buy now, and buy some more later.
Well, hope this helps. It sure does help me. It’s just what a good trader does, in his specialty. Research. Prepare. Know what you’re gonna do beforehand, if all goes awry.
Talk to me.