Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning!

Let’s see what’s up.

EUR gaining some legs. Top so far. At 1.91%.
USD on the other end. Most sold currency through Asia. At -1.42%

Yep. Interesting. Going into a big day today.
Man, that CAD is just losing their butts, huh?

Well, the thing I like to see the most is how the ends are keeping. Meaning, the most in demand are continuing that way. And the least in demand likewise. Plus, that dividing line keeping things separated. Look. It’s not always going to be this way, but, as the months gets towards the end, it stays more true. Look back in the data, you’ll see.

Alright.

Be back later.

Mike

[macilme]

thanks for the update @MikeWolski

[MikeWolski]

And the numbers are in. Getting interesting. I think.

Well, hello CAD. They’ve took back some for the day. But still down for the entire day so far. 1.81% for that session. But down -.57% on the day.

The JPY made some serious progress. Came up 1.12%. Something to keep in mind for sure.

The USD got a little boost also. They are the one to watch today. It is their day. Most attention will belong to the USD.

The big loser was the GBP. Look. It’s their session. And I guess all they did was come back down a little more lower to what they started with. Hope you’re all seeing this, there in the table. Basically, imagine where they are sitting on the positive and negative scale. Climbing? Or falling? That’s what I do.

Speaking of that. The trend is still in tact, broadly speaking. The EUR is not coming down. And the AUD is not scraping off the bottom. In fact, their spread (seen there at 27.16% bottom table) is getting more and more.

I’m happy about that.
All I’m doing is hanging on till I see a change in trend. Then I’ll go from there. Up to this point, no real trend changing going on.

Anyone seeing anything else interesting?

Well, I guess I will see ya after the whistle blows.
Until then, be careful.
We’ll talk about the carnage afterwards.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Let’s take a look at what happened today.

From the top.

• EUR took the day. + 4.06%
• NZD took the spanking. -6.65%
• USD rose for the day, +1.39%
• The USD session was in great flow. 17.71 That is a lot. Look back in my history. Basically, the positives went positive and the negatives went negative. And the dividing line still not being crossed (4 up, 4 down).
• The EUR/AUD is definitely growing legs. 33.73% of a spread. I think that’s impressive.

Well, there sure was a lot of USD selling lately, running up to the event. But afterwards, they’ve come back to close their highs of the month, which looks to be around 4 - 5%. So, IDK, nothing all that major, but mentionable.
I think the most mentionable thing is how the Comms are taking a beating, huh? Look at the selling to the NZD this afternoon. Pretty dog-gone major to me. They didn’t go down without a fight though. Look at their tracks in the last 2 days. Well now, they are joining the others.

Man…NZD is tough. Look. When the risk in on, they get it. But when it’s not, they don’t. It’s that simple.

Alright.
Got to run.

Talk to me.
Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (597.5 KB)

[midwest]

Mike, your supper and I really enjoy this topic because that’s what I trade, S&W.
But I have to say I am not bright enough to do what you do with this data.

So what I have done is focus on the USD/XDY and its crosses for my day trades.
and resort to Barchar.com on sunday for my weekly or longer setups along with the trend following.

Keep up the great work I check it daily1

[macilme]

I grossed in over 150 pips in total yesterday piggybacking off of your SW data on a couple of my trades yesterday… kudos man… now I choose my trades much more efficiently (often traded strong vs strong pairs based on price action alone but I now employ improved selection criteria to increase my success probability now).
thanks Mike… you really are making a difference

[MikeWolski]

Good morning!

What’s going on…

Looks like we got some risk-off happening.

• JPY up 2.71%.
• NZD down 4.16%.

Man, that’s gotta hurt…NZD. Down there with big brother now.
And the Yen’s up there. I’m still noticing the divergence between them and the USD. But, it is early. We’ll see.

The only other thing I see is that the flow is still in the positive, you know? That is definitely what we want, because it’s more of a predictive thing.

Man, look at the EUR/AUD spread. Taking off. Also noted that this is the first time to see a NZD, on the losing end, of a pair, in the top of that table. EUR/NZD at 29.07% . Ouch.

Well, all things into perspective, we got end of month, end of quarter and year upon us. So, it just might get a little volatile from here on out. Be careful.

And by the way…Thanks guys!!!
I hear ya!
And I am with ya!

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Here’s how the day is progressing.

The NZD took about half back, on that session. +2.66%
The USD dropping again. -1.81%
The session went negative flow. Probably because there was so much of a positive flow from the beginning of the day. And lately. That makes sense.

Wow. Look lower. The pair EUR/NZD took much back. Pretty good 5 hour retracement between those 2 currencies. From 29.07% to 26.83%. So, I imagine if you would look at that chart, it most likely dropped much.

Well, that’s what I see going on. Again, still not seeing any crossover of the middle line. We’ll have to see about the USD today. Will they drop in the negative for the month running?

Don’t look at me. I don’t know. Yesterday they skirted the line. Man, same with the GBP. They skirted it the other way.

Well, let’s see how the day ends up.
Be careful out there. It’s a jungle.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Here’s end of day.

Well, it was a JPY day. Took that session, along with the first. Which they took the day with +5.68%.
The CAD lost the day with -3.93%.

Looks like the EUR has some company. Riding on their butts. So, if I were you, beware of the JPY.
The USD didn’t break down below the mid line. Still positive.
Man…look at the flow. 10.64 All that says is the flow’s been keeping. Like for most of the day in total. It just means that the ends are keeping (top, bottom).

Well, one more day to go.
I kind of have a feeling it might be volatile. Cause the holiday’s are fast approaching, and money just might want to get where it wants to, sooner than later.
I don’t know. It’s just a thought.

Stay safe.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning!

Let’s see how Friday started off.

The EUR, the top dog, took that session. 1.30%
The NZD lost. -1.91%

This all wasn’t a whole lot, but I do have the feeling today will rock. Look. Feelings don’t have any say in the matter, honestly. Don’t mind me.

Ok. Let’s get it out, huh? Yeah, all we’re supposed to be objective about it right? No favoring…bias’s…straight up just taking it all in. Cause what we have here is facts. We can root all day long, but it won’t matter one little bit what we hope for. In fact, all it can do is get us into trouble. Am I right? Feelings are bad.

But…

Looking at the line up. It is fact that the EUR has dominated the month so far. And the AUD has swept the basement. Not all that many changes occurring. And all I’m hoping for is a continuation. The trend to continue. It’s kind of like the proof of why I’m doing this to begin with. I truly believe that you can separate all of this data into 2 things. It will either be trending, or changing. And in regards to our trading, follow the trend, or wait out the changes. Cause we always don’t have to be in the market.

As long as it’s clear, only then should you jump in. And I’m going to say it. I think the EUR/AUD trade is the trade. It’s the one with the biggest spread. And it sure does seems to be getting much bigger.

Look. Don’t mind all that nonsense. But, if there was any common, predictable thing that’s showing, it’s those 2 currencies. The facts are there.

Alright.
As always…BE CAREFUL.

But, I’m always here for you, and got ears to hear.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (602.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Ok. So, here’s how it’s unfolding. Mid day.

• JPY took that session. + 2.68%
• EUR lost that session. -2.2%

Head to head, for the top place, the JPY took 'em out. Also, changed the top biggest spread, for the month. I mean, just look at that purple. Yesterday they started the action, and upended the EUR. Interesting. See, this how it’s all unfolding. And we are coming to the end of the month. Well, sort of.

Looks like the EUR’s last stand was the start of the day, only to drop on out. Well, that is how the market likes to do things. You know, the bounce before the fall.

I noticed this also. Take a look. This is what’s going on down below (table). I zoomed out so you can get some kind of idea of the movement happening.

Purple. JPY. And well, you should be able to realize that the more pairs towards the top means that they have more demand, aggregately. Count how many yellow’s (EUR pairs). Was been like 4 - 5 lately. Well, not anymore. The purple’s are moving up, and getting to be a little more. I’m sure if you look at the whole table, you will definitely get the idea.

Alright.
Remember, we need end of day numbers to confirm real change taking place. Must keep the perspective.

Oh, I forgot. Look up at the USD. They dipped down into negative, but not for long. Popped back up to 2.19%. Interesting. They are not completely being sold off…just yet anyway.
Also the GBP. Flirting with the positives. We just have to see how the day ends. It’s just some kind of perspective, looking forward, that’s all.

Alright.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Is it end of day already?
Geez.

Ok. Let’s do this. Got some changes.

• JPY took the session AGAIN. And the day, with +4.8%.
• AUD lost that session, along with the day, with -3.85%.
• USD so close to the Yen. Separated by only .06%, that session.
• GBP jumped into positive territory. That would 5 of them now.
• AUD …I feel sorry for them…nahhh…
• AUD/JPY secures the top most spread. Whopping 45.20%. What change in a day, huh!
• Much positive flow has taken place today. Look at the GBP, about the flow. Since the last session, they being in the positive, caused that number to be on the high side. It depends on where they were sitting just in the last session (as opposed to the last days end).

Well folks, looks like it’s the Yen show. Believe it or not, looks like the Dollar & Yen show. As what happened in Oct. Well, we just have to see. The JPY don’t play around. Boy, they can go strong. Last time they were was in October (check it out).

Alright.
Looks like I have to adjust my trading, accordingly. Therefore, I would be looking the AUD/JPY currencies.

If anyone sees anything else interesting, we can talk about it.

Have a good weekend!
I’ll be around.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (604.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

I just wanted to throw this out there.
I do believe it is good to know why. Basically, that would lead you to fundamentals.

I just read a good article. There’s absolutely no way I could write and discover this stuff, but, that is a good thing about analysts.They know stuff.

Anyway. Check this out. It might explain some things about what’s going on with the JPY.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229403-forex-forensics-case-yen

Enjoy.
I did.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hi again.
I know that there are a lot of new traders around (nothing wrong with that), but…you never know. I’ll give this a shot.

Anyone into, and I mean into, the bond market?

For the last month or so I have decided that the bond market is my next market. So, needless to say, I’ve been embarking on all of the research needed. Like, I have a broker now for that. I can at least watch the yields move intraday. Books. Research. Etc…

Does it not even make the most sense? I mean, you have to admit, there is nothing more related, more correlated, to the currencies than the ‘debt market, credit market’. It’s all money. And what I’m uncovering about all the things that move the bond market is very similar to the currency market. It’s unbelievable.

Anyway, I’m learning. Like, for instance, I didn’t know that Eurobonds have nothing to do with…the EUR! All it is, is a foreign currency dominated bond, in another country. It gives the ability of one country to sell their bonds in another country. Anyway. I know. That’s nice.

But speaking of learning, I just wanted to know if there are others out there that have gotten into this market for a similar reason why I am now. The close correlation of these 2 markets. And also if you make money in this market.

Thanks for listening. And, I guess this subject does have to do with currency dynamics (title of my thread).

Mike

[VarSine]

Mike, thank you very much for this thread. Some of the basic principles have been very well explained. I would recommend your thread for all new people on the trading market who need some really good insight and additional forex knowledge

[MikeWolski]

Good morning !

Thanks Var!

Well, let’s see what’s going on today.

Some risk on happening, so far.

• NZD took it by 1.9%.
• USD lost it by -1.8%.
• No changes to the line up.
• Was a negative flowed session.
• The GBP got a bit of a boost.

So, we all know that this is the week of Christmas. I’m not all that sure of how the rest of the world deems the importance, but, I have a feeling it’s observed. Basically, the liquidity will be dropping this week. So, we shouldn’t be seeing all that major of moves. I mean, sure, there will be movement, but not as much as normal. I’m thinking the line ups probably won’t change. But, hey, you never know.

Well, I don’t know much of what to talk about. But, if you’re wondering, about me. It’s a no brainer. I’m looking at the AUD/JPY pair. And I bet it’s made a good retracement back on up. Well, I will be looking for an opportunity when (ok, if) it comes back on down. I won’t be jumping anytime soon. Got to be patient. Like the break below the market open price.

Ok. Well, I’m augmenting my schedule this week. I will be taking it easy. But, I do think I’ll keep the numbers running though.

Alright.
I’ll be around.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Here’s what’s happening.

• The aggregate flow was positive, so far, for the London session. + 3.53%. Basically recouped a good bit since the open.
• The EUR was most in demand for that time. + 1.24%
• The GBP was the least in demand. -.99%
• The CHF only separated the EUR by .01%. Demand.

So, big picture wise, everybody holding their own. No real changes taking place. Those are facts.

But, in my estimation, is seems like the JPY might be growing some more legs. Again…we will know more at the end of the day. The demand is evident. And that’s all I can summarize at this point in time.

I think about the big picture, always. And just to reiterate. All this is, is the Gateway to our trading. It’s knowing who’s more in demand and least in demand, in the context of a months sprint. You have to take it from here. There are a million ways to go about it. And I could offer you many different suggestions, because I thought of them all. But, I think it’s most safe to keep this threads leading edge to this point.

What’s going on?
That’s what’s going on.
Right?

Ok.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

And that’s a day. Christmas Eve. In the books. Let’s see what happened.

• CHF took the session, with +3.83%. And the day in total being +3.93% above all.
• AUD lost that session. -1.96%.
• USD most sold currency for this day in total. -2.97%.
• It was the CHF, JPY show this afternoon. And you know what that means. Risk-off taking place.
• AUD/JPY pulling way ahead. 49.66% for the month running.
• Very positive flow happened that session (10.36%), and would make it a positive day in total.

Kind of interesting that the EUR couldn’t hold up, but the GBP sure did. Actually, the Pound moved up over the Dollar. Look at the last days ending totals, compared to today’s. shrug

Alright. Interesting stuff happening, I think.

Well, Merry Christmas everyone.
And I think the market will still run tomorrow…but not all that sure. We’ll see. If so, then I’ll be here. If not, I guess not.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (598.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Well, hello.
Right now it’s Thursday middle of London session.
My hands have been tied with the numbers lately. I was able to get end of day stats, but that’s about it. Dog-gone Barchart is not cooperating, even up to the present. So, this is the best I can do. Believe me, this is accurate. I had to do this manually. But, it’s right (I’m a stickler for accuracy).

So, the top 2 columns are end of day totals, Monday & Wednesday. The right top most is just the parameters for the month, not all that important. And on the bottom, of course is all I can do. At least we can see what kind of changes took place, regarding the line up.

The US dollar not dropping below the zero mid line. And over took the GBP.
But yeah, we definitely had retracement going on. The top 3 came down a lot. And the bottom 3 came up some.

So, today will have to be the same thing. Like, I don’t have eyes. Barchart data is frozen. Sure, if you want to know what’s going on in the futures market, it’s running. And other markets. But not us. It’s kind of throwing me a bit. I’m like, blind here. But what can I do? It would be nice if the %'s started at the beginning of the day, and ran to the end. But that’s not the case.

Hopefully things will reset by the weekend.

Alright.
Be careful.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (602.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning!
Well, guess what’s working…finally.
Here’s the latest.

• The JPY took the Asian session. +1.91%
• The USD lost it. - 1.79%
• More positive flow, than negative. But, not by all that much.

The only real change has been the GBP went underwater. It’s not really anything to talk about, but for me, it’s noticeable. And interesting.

Well, happy Friday. And let’s see how the day unfolds.

Alright.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (603.6 KB)