Let’s look at some Tuesday.
- NZD (dark red) took the session +1.0%.
- GBP (blue) lost the session -1.45%.
- Positive flow .18%.
- CAD/CHF still the top spread pair 46.50%. At .7632 now.
Well, everything’s relative. And it’s common sense that no one can predict what’s going to happen next. That’s a given. And that’s why all humans can go on is patterns, to follow.
But, I want to prove this one and only statement. What is, is what is, until it changes. Let’s look at the most recent data, up there.
- The CAD (brown) is still the most bought currency of the year. I could have predicted that statement with some confidence.
- The Comms (reddish colored) aggregately are more bought than any other grouping of currencies, this year so far. Could have predicted that also.
- The CHF (pink) is the most sold currency this year. Same thing.
- No one currency, up there in the line up, has crossed above or below the 0% line, since the last session (meaning would have gained or lost that amount). Could have predicted that with some confidence.
- The CAD/CHF pair is still sitting with the largest spread of a difference between any two currencies. According to their running totals for the year so far. Could have predicted that with much confidence, since last session.
Look. Again. Everything is relative. All I’m doing is showing trends. Sure, we can’t predict exactly what, how, something will do in a specific time period. That’s why it’s best (in my opinion) to follow a trend, or a pattern.
Thanks for bringing this up. You make a very good point.
I think that’s nothing but the elephant in the room. Like, no kidding. I mean, are you trying to find some predictive thing that tells you what’s going to happen? Like, an indicator? Or maybe a leading indicator?
Think about it for a second.
I have. For years now.
And guess what…you’re not going to find what you think you want. If the whole entire market is in the business of looking forward to where price will go, and placing their bets on it, then what makes you think you’ll find an indicator that will tell you it’s gonna get it there?
That’s the job of economists, and central banks. Their jobs are to put all past data together and come up with preemptive solutions to their problems. Like where inflation will be in the future. So they can curtail their interest rates.
Well, it’s a hard job. And that’s why they want to look at the market, see where price is at (in the bond market), and factor that into their calculations. The markets are the best indicator.
And our job, in order to make any kind of money, is to find the inconsistencies that arise in the market. You exploit that for a profit.
Anyway. This is the game. Nothing can be predictive with pinpoint accuracy in the way that you seem to be looking for. Once you understand that, only then can you proceed on to finding your own way of exploiting a profit out of the market.
And if you do find a better way…God bless you.
But, for me, it’s more than just making money. I want to know how the market moves. Why it moves the way it does. Where it moves to. How these currencies are relating to one another.
Maybe that’s the difference between those who get into the market…solely for money…or because you just love it.
I love this game.
I am a trader.
This is what it looks like, to be a trader.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (325.8 KB)