Good morning mates.
Here’s a little more Monday market.
Monthly context shown.
- CAD (brown) most bid currency that session +1.86%.
- CHF (pink) most sold currency -1.46%.
Well, I’m not proud. I’ll show you the quarterly context.
Yep. I’m still in the CAD/CHF short trade. It’s my change trade. I’m going to give it one more session. If the CAD stays above +16.87% (last weeks closing), I’m out. Also if the CHF goes any lower than -19.56%, I’m out. I just have to see this through. Cause my premise is that this pair is overbought. Like since the beginning of the year. See, I’m not going to play this back and forth game (a.k.a intraday swings). I need to see end of day.
Ok. That’s nice. I know.
You know…boy…I’ve been bothered about what happened at the open. Man! All I know is something went down, and I would very much like to know. And what’s making it really bad is that I can’t get onto my NetDania sight, for a good aggregate look. Anyway. I’ll do my best to show you.
That’s the 30 min chart, since the open. So, I’ve been trying to see what currency is the culprit. I’m thinking it’s the CHF. Sold off??? That would pair a risk currency to a safe haven currency.
Now how about the Swiss against the Dollar…
This is the USD/CHF 30min chart, since the open. That would confirm that notion, right? But also you have this chart.
The CHF/JPY 30min chart, since the open. This is pairing both safe haven currencies. Well, it’s no secret that we are talking about a move strictly based on the CHF, rather than a risk-on, or risk-off sentiment move. Right?
Ok. Well, let’s see what the EUR/CHF did.
We’re talking about a 100 pip move. Then on back to where it started. But lately moving back on up there.
Well, you can’t tell me something is up. I just don’t know if this is a tell of the future or not. Like…is the Swiss central bank making a statement? I’ve told you this before, they simply don’t like a strong currency. So maybe they made this move to continue the trend, from the beginning of the year.
That would surely nullify the 'ol overbought/underbought indicator. Know what I mean?
I think this is a clue. And you should know what I’m thinking. I need to jump!
Ok. Maybe I should. And forget about my strategy premise. I’ll just throw it away.
Sure, I thought about that.
My stop loss is in place. That’s all there is to it. It’s laying at .7570. And wouldn’t it figure, it’s at the 200 ma. On the 1 hour chart. And also stratelling the 200 on the Daily chart, presently.
Well, sorry about all that nonsense. We’re gonna have to see how the day ends. But, more whole entire point here is that I need to stick with my parameters, reasons, playbook, than anything else. You know…it’s the hard things that we have to do, no matter what.
Boy…I sure would like to know the reason behind that move though.
Alright. I’m done talking nonsense.
See ya at the close.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (339.3 KB)