Coronavirus in China

The Chinese Bat Virus — let’s call it what it is

Is it any wonder that this disease started in China?





Chinese bat virus - 2



Chinese bat virus - 6



Chinese bat virus - 3





The latest numbers

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where the hell is Batman When you need him ?
Poor creatures ….

Of course it will, many analysts already say that it will effect the trading and economic growth in severe way for sure, there is even no doubt. The coronavirus outbreak will have a short-term effect on the world economy, but there is a risk of a longer lasting effect, which could have a tangible impact on the economies of all countries in the world, especially China and related countries. The rush of the coronavirus in China and its spread throughout the world has led to increased panic in the world’s commodity and financial markets. As a result, prices for certain commodities, in particular oil and iron ore, lost 10 to 15% over the week, while Chinese stock indices lost 7 to 12%. The main reason for such dynamics was strengthening of negative expectations of China’s economy slowdown.

Whether this new "this time it’s different…" turns out to be a real threat or it just fades away like the others have, it has certainly given those pushing the Indices forever higher an excuse to allow them to have a very much needed period of "correction"so we an all go short for a few days ? before they start "Repo-ing " it again :wink:

At the latest I heard - we had 19 cases - but I expect it will rise to fulfil the Bloomberg forecast - and the sea level rises to wash away the dead polar bears !

You understand, as this event can be considered quite complex and strong, the display in the market will be anyway, because there are still shares of Chinese companies, competition with the dollar, etc. I think the best thing we can do in this case is to observe the situation and act according to what else is going to happen. Now the analysis should be very careful.

Yes of course we should await confirmation in accordance with tried and tested principles :smile:
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A bit more about "corona…>"
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Yep - 23 now.

The worrying thing is that one of those 4 wasn’t abroad, had zero contact with persons abroad.

Here in NI the medical people reckon that chances are 70% infection rate with only a tiny proportion succumbing - if you are under 50, or over 50 with no lung problems then no need to bother.

Hmmm - fail on both counts.
Edit: reliably informed that alcohol hand wash is a good deterrent, so therefore it follows that a little Irish Whiskey into the body will be likewise :slight_smile:

February 29 - current numbers



Today’s figures for central Europe:

  • France – 73 confirmed cases
  • Germany – 76
  • Austria – 6
  • Switzerland – 15
  • Spain – 45
  • Italy – 1,128 — ??? what the hell is going on in Italy?

Take it you haven’t tried there new Range of Pizza yet then !!!

Even the Bats Love it.

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March 2 - current numbers

Two important milestones have been reached in the worldwide data on this virus —

  • The total number of deaths from the Wuhan Virus has topped 3,000 for the first time.

  • For the first time, more than 50% of those infected with the Wuhan Virus have recovered.


As I see now, coronavirus are destroying world economy as a whole. If it won’t be stopped, there will be another world economic crisis. And this is the least of problems.

How dreadful to live.

That’s greatly overstated, in my opinion.

If the ebola virus were to spread around the world, the way this coronavirus is spreading, I would agree with your dire assessment. But, the coronavirus is far less virulent than ebola, and (apparently) considerably less deadly than ordinary flu.

I’ve been posting updated numbers on infections, deaths, and recoveries – not because I expect this thing to blow up into a pandemic – but, because I expect it to top out. I’m not an epidemiologist (obviously), so take my opinion with a grain of salt. But, I don’t want my daily updates to be misconstrued as alarm-ism.

The sky is not falling, and I don’t think it’s going to fall.

By the way, how about explaining your screen-name ?


March 3 - current numbers

Nice touch by the Travel Insurance Industry… I’m told by a insider that this clause was also added to Life Insurance Policies in 2018… Looks like risk managers knew something was happening…

Travelling, getting Life Insurance?? I’d be checking the fineprint on any new policies before entering into the contract with these proven time honored fraudsters.

Do you think the coronavirus threat is being over-hyped?

I think the coronavirus is a pandemic within the news media. It’s all over the internet. It’s all over the major television networks. And it’s overloading my email inbox. Consider the following from my inbox —

Here’s a NewsMax article which links to an Australian National University article, which in turn links to a study of possible coronavirus scenarios. The study suggests that the best-case scenario for the development of the coronavirus will be nearly equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (which killed 17 million people).



Here’s an excerpt from NewsMax

One best-case-scenario study suggests the coronavirus is going to ultimately kill 15 million people and make a $2.4 trillion hit to world gross domestic product.

Australian National University looked at seven scenarios of how the global outbreak might impact humanity and world GDP, using a statistical model based on the Hong Kong flu from 1968 to 1969 that killed an estimated 1 million.


Here’s a link to the Australian National University article —


And here’s a link to the actual study paper (.pdf, 44 pages) –

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a96a-ca11-4a06-99ec-adb478629363/-/inline/no/


More of my opinion —

Sadly, news organizations everywhere in the world survive and prosper on fear, panic, frustration, and despair caused by emergencies, tragedies, disasters, and epidemics.

To the extent that the news media can create or hype those things, increased viewership, resulting in increased ad revenue, drives profit straight to their bottom lines.

The coronavirus is a fabulous profit-center for the news outlets.

I, for one, am sick and tired of being sold what they are selling — that the sky is falling, and it’s the end of modern civilization as we know it.

This virus will die out. If it comes back year after year, by then we will have vaccines to combat it. In the meantime, boost your immune system, keep your distance from people, and turn off the damn news.


What’s your opinion?

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"This time it’s different…" (Extraordinary popular delusions and the Madness of Crowds " - Charles McKay )

Here in the uk we have 5000 deaths from “ordinary flu” so far this year. We have 2700 deaths from the exhorbitant “Greenie” taxes which preclude old people from heating their homes - and 4800 male suicides - generated by gynocentric interventions - Boy this little “flu” certainly has it’s work cut out - to outbid all of those !

As ever - it will come and it will go ! :rofl:

The virus has created a lot of selling opportunities, I mean it is lingering risks and market players tend to overreact to persisting uncertainty. I keep short positions on USDRUB, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CNYUSD with Hotforex, although lot sizes are small but I expect to make substantial returns in medium-term.

As I discussed in my initial post in this thread, I’m more concerned about the economic impact than the so called Pandemic… This is real and the knock on effect from China’s shut down has real implications for Australasian economies.

$140 Billion has been wiped from the ASX200 in the last few trading sessions and the supply chains aren’t quite empty yet… Add 7 weeks shipping delay on top of the Chinese manufacturing shutdown and the shortages will get real and real fast…

Europe and the US maybe insulated… Australia and New Zealand are not…

David Buick - a name I remember from many years ago and a Proper Analyst - has a few words to say in the Nigel Farage show this evening about Indices, PE ratios, Bond Yields, Oil Prices, Gold and recession !

Always worth listening to this Guy ! (Don’t mind Nigel - the sound is muted for him.)

Oh and you’ll get the tail end of an advert before it starts proper.