No doubt, Corona hits all economies and many people hard. Maybe its a little bit cruel, but since that Corona crisis started i could apply the first time in my young trading carrer for withdrawls of profits.
On the one side its for many people a big problem, on the other side its “the century” chance, to hoard now money.
Dont undestand me wrong,nobody wants and needs this situation, but someone has the chance to make the best of it, as well. This kind of thinking could also help those people, who sit now in quarantaine at home and dont know what to do with their time.
Somebody smarter than me directed me to this analysis.
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Regarding the loan program:
A special-purpose vehicle that Fed created jointly with the Treasury Department will purchase 95 percent of the loan while the financing institution would hold the other 5 percent.
The US coronavirus outbreak will “have a very long tail”, Morgan Stanley’s biotech analyst Matthew Harrison writes, in a note dated Sunday, striking a cautious tone on the timeline for reopening the world’s largest economy.
Optimism around a “reopening” has blossomed recently thanks in part to an apparent flattening of key “curves” in New York (e.g., hospitalizations) even as the death toll (the most macabre of all lagging indicators) continues to mount.
Trump administration officials, meanwhile, are walking a fine line between preserving whatever’s left of the public’s sanity and not setting unrealistic goals. The president himself was careful on Friday to avoid mentioning any specific dates, having apparently learned something from setting an “aspirational” Easter target, only to postpone it indefinitely.
In what he amusingly describes as your “first and only chance to have a Morgan Stanley biotech analyst tell you what he thinks about the market”, the above mentioned Harrison says it’s been “striking to see how investors have reacted to the first signs that new COVID-19 cases in New York are starting to stabilize”.
While he “understands the desire for optimism”, Harrison cautions “that the US outbreak is far from over”.
Not only that, he warns that “recovering from this acute period in the outbreak is just the beginning, not the end [and] we believe the path to re-opening the economy is going to be long”.
While Harrison says a tentative reopening of the economy is possible by “mid-to-late May”, investors should not harbor any misconceptions about the situation. This will not, the bank says, be any semblance of “normal”.
There are four conditions that have to be met before the US can get back to work in earnest, Harrison says. Those four conditions are (from the note):
- adequate surge capacity in hospitals,
- broad public health infrastructure to support testing for disease surveillance,
- robust contact tracing to curtail “hot spots”, and
- widespread availability of serology testing (blood tests to see who is already immune)
Although this process will begin by mid-summer, Morgan Stanley says that “unfortunately”, many workers won’t be able to go back to their jobs “until a vaccine is abundantly available as social distancing cannot be fully relaxed until we have herd immunity (~60% of people vaccinated) “.
If you’re starting to get the impression that this is going to be a very tedious process, that would be the correct interpretation.
Harrison emphasizes the importance of government investment in a vaccine program and says testing antivirals and antibody therapies can help reduce the severity of cases in the meantime. He also says the market may begin to look past the dour economic data eventually, where that means once it becomes apparent a vaccine is “on the horizon”.
And yet, the bottom line is that the projections outlined in the visual (and discussed at length by Harrison) have prompted the bank’s economists “to revise their US forecast to a return to pre-COVID-19 levels not until 4Q21”.
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Hi TradingPanda
You might like this article.
Written by Bill O’Reilly
China’s Bio weapon, and Pelosi…
My wife Angie will tell you that I study history and world events fluently every day. I have studied China for many years. To get answers I need to questions, I call many I know in Washington on Capitol Hill (from my tenure on two Presidential campaigns and Presidential talks) and I ask them for straight up answers to better understand what affects us as a nation.
Well, in 2016 America elected a new Sheriff: Donald J Trump. For decades the Chinese walked all over America but the new President said “not anymore”. Trump literally strangled China’s economy to the point their economy was in its worst free fall ever. Trump negotiated a new 50 billion trade agreement. He had Xi by the proverbial balls. America’s economy was on fire and unstoppable. President Xi Jingping knew he could not beat the USA militarily and he knew any domesticated economic attack would fail as our economy was too strong. He had to act. But how?
Enter the USA democrats led by Pelosi and Schiff. Impeachment. A hoax. A distraction for our people and President. Xi Jingping and his thugs see this. They aren’t stupid. They have very intelligent intellectual thinkers in their government. Now you must understand , the Chinese regime are truly Barbarians. Notice I did not say ALL CHINESE. The Chinese people are a good people. I enjoy my interactions with them.
The communist regime has millions of its own citizens slaving in gulags simply for speaking against the government or openly practicing Christianity. Knowing they could not attack us openly they needed to be coy, like a deceptive fox. In my opinion, I believe the regime released a biological weapon upon the world that doesn’t kill everyone, but kills “enough,” especially the elderly and in-firmed. Back in WW 2 Hitler thought the same way. He got rid of what he considered the useless and rejects of society.
Trumps task force uses models to figure things. Xi used and uses “models” too. China’s president figured that if he killed a few of his own (a few hundred thousand to them would be a few out of 1.4 billion people) and spread the virus to other nations (especially to the USA) they would “level the economic playing field” and not have fired a shot.
Losses of his own people were acceptable costs of a new war. When China’s own doctors attempted to sound the warning, they were immediately silenced. In fact one died and another has simply disappeared. Trump and the other allied leaders indeed KNOW this is what happened. They have under reported their own deaths. Trump knows he cannot outrightly seek retribution. His news conference today showed me this when he balked publicly about no outright retribution over Xi’s handling of this and he immediately brought up the “trade deal”. However, Trump wasn’t being weak, he too was now being coy. We know this was a biological weapon. The food market story is bullshit.
Xi knows we know it. Trump also today announced he sent two battle groups of destroyers and other ships to sea several days ago to fight drugs and rogue actors like Iran should they try anything.
I say he did this to show Xi he knows what has transpired (we have the greatest intelligence assets) and that they (the Chinese) should rethink further action. Politics is premier. We cannot overtly attack China for what they have done as we would also suffer greatly. We all know this.
But China has temporarily achieved its goal. America was literally consumed by Trumps phony impeachment brought by the ultra left democrats (supported by democrat rank and file and one Republican Mitt Romney) and Xi Jingping saw an opening. He took it. Xi did what Trump usually does…he walked onto the world stage and threw a grenade into the “room” and left. It exploded in the form of this worldwide pandemic. It brought the USA and the rest of the world to its knees and leveled the economic playing field.
Our economy is now near depression. Xi didn’t fire one bullet. Trump needed to up his game of chess and putting our Naval ships to sea was his next move. He said he is a “war” President. He is.
But now on not one but two fronts. One front is the virus and the other front is the Chinese. While the Saudi’s and Russians are screwing with oil prices they aren’t overtly doing what this pandemic is doing. The drug smuggling story for dispatching the Naval Force is bullshit and the world knows it. I am of the opinion Trump can indeed bring us back from this catastrophe albeit with a changed playing field.
But Trump is a genius in chess and financial matters. He’s become a champ at international politics too. I am sure Trump can once again lead the economy to even stronger strength and greatness the it was . He can do it quickly I’m sure of it. He has proved it. Xi Jingping needs to be sent a message loud and clear. NEVER AGAIN. We need to bring all of our critical manufacturing back from China beginning with our medicines they were recently threatening to withhold. We can do it immediately. Again, another reason for Trump putting to sea such a sizable Naval Force. Sending a clear message.
We all must ride out the next few weeks. Then we and the world pick up the pieces and move on. The democrats who have given Xi this opening wrapped in a bow must pay a heavy price in November as they (the democrats) truly have cost and continue to cost America precious lives by the phony scandals. Nancy Pelosi continues to help the Chinese by her daily shameless attacks upon the President and meddling in stimulus packages as she did this last weekend. Yesterday’s statements she made were truly appalling and the lowest of low. I didn’t think she could go any lower. What a disgrace she is to our nation.
But, Pelosi aside, make no mistake, China must and will be taught a lesson the likes they have never seen before and Trump is the man to pull the trigger.
We the people must teach the democrats the same lesson at the polls. They (the radical wing of the party) are the enemy of a free America. I am certain of it. The entire democrat party of our forefathers is dead. Remember people, Trump indeed tried to warn us all of the Conavirus in his State of the Union Speech. He spoke of it. He said he was on top of it.
After he spoke , Nancy Pelosi ripped up the speech calling Trumps words “a manifesto of lies”. She disgraced the country and all of our fellow honored citizens present in the House Chamber. Well she now has American blood on her hands. She is very majorly responsible for these needless deaths as well as the Chinese. Her and Adam Schiff.
The left and democrats laughed as she tore up his speech. Well, as they laughed the disease he just spoke of in that speech came to our shores. Republicans and Democrats alike are now dying. Your family members and mine. Our grandparents and middle aged citizens alike. Bodies are being loaded in trucks with forklifts in Brooklyn outside of hospitals. No one is safe. Our liberty is for the most part suspended. As we bury our dead (without proper funerals) from this calamity let’s drive the nails into the coffin of the Democrat party as well in November.
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Market problems affected by coronavirus are inevitable. There will be many projects affected but absolutely not Ritva!
Any country is affected by the Chinese virus, including countries that have not yet been infected by the Chinese virus and those countries are also subject to solidarity because they also have to trade with other countries. The current situation is not better than slowing down
I think that we will be facing the consequences of the virus for weeks to come, because it has affected almost all areas, and therefore it will take a long time to restore many areas to their normal state!
Is that the same Bill O’Reilly who with much compassion last week when referring to people who have died from covid19 as being “on their last legs anyway”?
The same guy who was sacked by Fox?
This Bill O’Reilly, when challenged about his lack of compassion answered:
“I don’t care, a simple man tells the truth.”
This particular Bill O’Reilly’s truth seems far from the Truth.
Look past your perceived hatred for the guy and look with objectivity at the story. There are real questions about this Coronavirus that have to be answered and he is not the only one raising this issue.
Blackduck
Absolutely unfathomable… 6500 deaths in the USA in the past 24 hours… Starting to look very sinister…
The US only had 6600 casualties (dead and Injured) storming the Normandy beaches on June 6th…
That number seems a bit high.
Depending on the source, deaths in the past 24 hours range from 2,492 to ~4,900.
‘A long way to go’ before there’s enough testing to reopen economy, Business Roundtable CEO says
The United States needs to see increased testing for the coronavirus before businesses can begin to reopen, Business Roundtable President and CEO Joshua Bolten said Thursday.
“We’ve clearly got a long way to go, but there’s progress being made every day … all the CEOs in our organization agree that testing is an absolutely crucial gating element to getting us back and running safely,” Bolten said on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “So everything we can do to expand the availability of fast and accurate testing is going to be probably the most crucial element to reopening promptly and safely.”
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Singapore should be a warning to the U.S.
They had COVID under excellent control. Now it’s out of control: 728 new cases yesterday.
When we relax social distancing measures prematurely we risk a second wave. Places where groups of people work/live close to each other are at high risk.
As far as I know, many countries are now introducing certain measures to support their citizens. And it is related to credit holidays and various social payments. I think we’re gonna hold out somehow.
If we don’t SOON relax and let the economy get back to work governments will have no money for any form of support including welfare and public health.
Governments are not a bottomless pit of money. They need revenue.
Blackduck
Governments ARE a bottomeless pit. At least the ones that can issue their own soverign currency.
They don’t need revenue. They can simply monetize their debt. Meaning the government can create an IOU to raise cash (e.g. bonds) and the central bank buys it and transfers money (conjured from keystrokes) into the government’s account for it to spend.
Taxes do not provide the revenue which the national government needs in order to pay its bills Taxes are not needed to “pay for” government spending so by definition, aren’t needed for revenue. Taxes are used as a mechanism to destroy or remove money out of the money supply. In a macroeconomic nutshell, to reduce aggregate demand.
This is actually how governments work in the fiat era. It’s just now they have to do it at a much larger scale.
Taxes are useful in the sense that it drives the demand for the currency. If we eliminated the tax, people probably would not immediately abandon use of the currency, but the main driver for its use would be gone. Taxation is also a way that government imposes limits on the non-government sector.
But goverrnment doesn’t need taxes for “revenue” (State and local governments are a different story though). A government with their own sovereign currency can always “find the money”.
Regretably this belief is right out of the Bernie Sanders Alexander Ocasia Cortez and Hugo Chavez playbook.
Sadly debit has too be repaid and it doesn’t matter who you are; Joe Citizen, Business Government. There are no free lunches and the government does not have a secret money tree that they can pick $100 bills off whenever they need it. Government bonds are a way of printing money and printing money in the long term doesn’t work. Here’s why.
Money becomes worthless if too much is printed . If the Money Supply increases faster than real output then inflation will occur. If you print more money , the amount of goods doesn’t change. … If there is more **money chasing the same amount of goods, firms will just put up prices.
Simple example to explain why printing money causes inflation
- Suppose the economy produces 1,000 units of output.
- Suppose the money supply (number of notes and coins) = $10,000
- This means that the average price of the output produced will be $10 (10,000/1000)
Suppose then that the government print an extra $5,000 notes creating a total money supply of $15,000; but, the output of the economy stays at 1,000 units. Effectively, people have more cash, but, the number of goods is the same. Because people have more cash, they are willing to spend more to buy the goods in the economy.
Ceteris paribus, the price of the 1,000 units will increase to $15 (15,000/1000). The price has increased, but, the quantity of output stays the same. People are not better off, and the value of money has decreased; e.g. A $10 note buys fewer goods than previously.
Therefore, if the money supply is increased, but, the output stays the same, everything will just become more expensive. The increase in national income will be purely monetary (nominal) So if output increased by 5%. and the money supply increases by 7%. Then inflation will be roughly 2%.
Assumptions in the above example
In the real world, it is possible, if the government printed money, people would just decide to save the extra money and therefore, prices wouldn’t automatically rise. However, to simplify the link between the money supply and inflation, let us assume that consumers are willing to spend the extra money. Also, if you expect inflation to rise, you have an incentive to spend it – rather than see the value of your money fall.
What you are advocating is Quantitative Easing.
“Quantitative easing” is a process whereby a Central Bank, such as the Bank of England, purchases existing “government bonds” (gilts) in order to pump money directly into the financial system. Quantitative easing is regarded as a last resort to stimulate spending in an economy when interest rates fail to work.
The problem with Quantative Easing by using government bonds are as follows:
Governments borrow by selling government bonds/gilts to the private sector. Bonds are a form of saving. People buy government bonds because they assume a government bond is a safe investment. However, this assumes that inflation will remain low.
If governments print money to pay off the national debt, inflation could rise. This increase in inflation would reduce the value of bonds.
If inflation increases, people will not want to hold bonds because their value is falling. Therefore, the government will find it difficult to sell bonds to finance the national debt. They will have to pay higher interest rates to attract investors.
If the government print too much money and inflation get out of hand, investors will not trust the government and it will be hard for the government to borrow anything at all.
This also affects a governments credit rating and the more debit a government has increases the risk of the government losing a AAA credit rating which exacipates the problem by increasing the interest rate that the government has to pay on borrowings.
- Therefore, printing money creates more problems than it solves.
It is really not that simple and if you want to see a classic case of what problems happen with printing too much money just look at Venezuala where they have no health system and people eat out of garbage cans. Where the value of money is worthless and a months salary will buy you a can of coke.
Cheers
Blackduck
China’s virus situation is getting worse, especially the number of infected and dead people is increasing. and nations will fear and will remain closed until the end of this epidemic