I am finding that, these days, the relationship between currencies which were generally recognised as the more reliable positive and negatively related pairs has deteriorated so that it is now difficult to find the consistency in behaviour that could previously be identified and traded. At the beginning of the year I achieved over 30 profitable trades with no losses but now it’s hard to find anything that can be traded by using simple criteria of finding positive pairs that have temporarily moved away from their normal close/parallel relationship. It seems to that the Forex market behaviour has changed and become more erratic so that it is now almost impossible to trade correlated pairs with confidence. I am continuing to use the same criteria as before but now I can find next to nothing worth trading - either the relationship between the pairs has become completely random or they are moving within such a tight distance from each other that there’s not enough movement to produce more than a few pips profit. Anyone else finding a similar problem?
I also believe the relationships and behaviours of pairs have become contradictory and random this year. I put it down to Brexit but there could be other factors at work involving principally the US President - the Trump Tweet risk factor.
Last year I was able to let trend-following winners run, and in fact to pyramid them. This year, I get out when there have been three consecutive closes in my favour.
Hi tommor. Yes, your thinking is identical to mine - that Forex behaviour has been Brexified and Trumpified.
I have found it virtually impossible to trade my system for a while now. Just hope things get back to ‘normal’ one day.
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