I’m still missing WillSpread 
I’m trying to program it, but I’m having a hard time creating it.
Hey FE, I’m not sure if this is after we talked. I removed some messages so now you can send me again.
Hey Mike, thanks for this. It seems that US is strong one day, weaker the next. Don’t you think?
PS: How is your trading doing this month.
Hey Philip!
Yep, isn’t that always the tale…back and forth, back and forth. That goes for any currency. (we all know that)
Well, since you brought it up, I guess I must tell. (rather not talk about it)
I crashed my account. Demo. See, no one will understand. I take this very seriously. And I had to start over. Starting in Nov. now. This only means I can’t go live in Jan. I have rules and I won’t break them. If I can’t prove to myself that I can be consistent for 3 months straight, it’s back to the drawing board. This will be my 4th demo account started, at 1,000. Since the start of 2013. It’s depressing. And only means that it is taking so long. I haven’t lost any ferver, drive, determination, hope, on this quest. It’s just the amount of time and energy that I put into this, you would think I would be making progress, (in my time line). But I’m learning that my time line is not lining up with the ACTUAL time line…where I am confident, consistent, and making serious progress in my business.
So, however long it takes, then so be it.
I’m in it till the end.
Sorry about all that.
GO AUD!!!
Mike
P.S.
This month I’m on the AUD. So, whenever they go up, I should be making some pips. And when they dive, then I’m losing.
Mike, it’s the choppiness that’s getting you, the only way I can ever find to deal with it is with limit exits at former highs or lows - can be frustrating because you’ll miss a few moves, also means more work for less return, but at least no big losses.
NFP tomorrow, if it’s USD positive then with current momentum there may not be any whipsaw, so I’m thinking about setting USD buy stop on whichever cross I feel is weakest - lol famous last words, probably massive, gigantic whipsaw that’ll be heard this side of the Atlantic.
One other thing, I hadn’t intended posting about this but FE has mentioned the hard work that BB has done recently and urged me to post, so maybe you guys can do something with it.
Some years ago I was studying the FTSE. I had noticed that the early morning BBC news report would often state “FTSE falls on Gulf war fears” or “FTSE down 50 points on global downturn worries” and so on.
Then around lunch time I would check the ftse and it would be up! - this happened so often that I decided to investigate.
I soon found a pattern, it was always very visible on a line or bar chart (lol candlesticks were only used in powercuts back then). I called the pattern the “V”, always happened in the morning. I spent the best part of a year trying to map that “V”, I wanted to tie it down to a time and day of week.
I failed on that mission. The days and time seemed random, the only level of predictability was that if the index was at recent highs the “V” was more common and pronounced.
I tried for an explanation, a reason. I had many ideas including the possibility of Asian traders’ actions and so on. Eventually I just learned to wait until it formed if I was going long and that was that.
FE was following the index more recently so I told him to look out for the “V”, he saw it’s formation in action, especially in the recent run up, I hadn’t been following the FTSE for a few years so I wasn’t sure if it was still happening.
Finally, Larry Williams describes the theory of the “V” when he describes the reasoning behind ProGo as described in BB’s post.
There’s just one little piece he left out, when an index or a currency cross is making new highs many traders look to fade the move, if they see or hear of a reason then they will use that. The BBC news item is written by journalists to a target audience of retail, they are most often reflecting the very thing that traders used to fade the previous day’s move.
A fade is only good if you get in early, - so get your orders in at the open, if it’s bank shares, for example, then you will do that as soon as the exchange opens - after those are done and dusted then the “V” forms, or ProGo in action.
Well it’s just a theory, 
Kinda heartbreaking to see Natural Gas rocketing off. I was long about 1,5 week ago but got stopped out before the rally =/
The rally shows the power of the commercials, it’s just getting the timing right.
An intermarket one for Nat gas is BNG on main chart and XNG on comparison - I thought you were still long on that, there will be a second chance
Reasons for moves here:
For anyone reading, BB know the references, XNG is an index, details here:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^XNG
The charts on Stockcharts.com are Primary $natgas and indicator $xng on the bottom.
The vertical line indicates when the index of energy companies started to rise on Oct 14, about a week before NatGas price, with the commercials having already indicated their intentions on cot as noted back by BB.
Thanks Peter for sharing it. I suggest to read the post for the others maybe twice as it has many information but it really works out good. If you make an entry after the V occurs and put the SL under the V then you will have a good risk/reward. Without those good wins on FTSE how would I be able to lose now with silver?
So, getting more serious, Peter forgot one part of his great explanation and I think it has a great value. BB, you should really think about this one as you put a lot of effort on ProGo. Peter is right when he says: “ProGo might be difficult to use on markets which are open 24/5 as there is no really close and open. You can just trade it the whole time.” - these were not exactly Peters words but hopefully close enough.
And it makes a lot of sense. Think about it: when is exactly the close and open price? Who cares about it? It is true. It might be said but I do not even know when is Tokyo open and close. So everyone has to decide what is the open and what is the close price for himself, but maybe ProGo does not play an important role as Williams planed it will (as you all know for ProGO we need the open and close price for the given day). For markets which are not traded the whole time, it can be successful. For example I am not allowed to trade DAX and FTSE at night at my broker (I do not know what about you guys) so in this case the pattern might be very important about close and open. But if I have a limit order and the market is open the whole day then I do not really care when is it triggered and ProGo might have a limited success on these markets.
BB you should think about this issue because it makes me sceptical. You have to see, this thread honost, no matter if it is positive or negative. We are like this. We want to get successful in this. I know it took you a lot of work for making ProGo and for some markets I am still with you about it. This is however a main question about the effectiveness of it. I do not say it does not help but we should be sceptical on the results. Be aware of that, guys. And sorry to share this idea a bit too late. But better late then never.
Peter, if I forgot something or you can describe it better, “just do it”. (Hmmm I think I already heard this slogan somewhere)
Ok guys, good night.
PS: do you see BB? I told you if you write a nice post I arrange you a Junior Membership on the site. Here you go, you have it!
Fellas.
Thursday results.
USD: +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
AUD: +4 -1 2///+4 -1 0
NZD: +4 -1 2///+4 -1 0
CAD: +4 -1 2///+4 -1 0
JPY : +3 -4 0///+0 -3 0
GBP: +1 -5 1///+0 -3 0
EUR: +0 -5 2///+0 -3 0
CHF: +0 -6 1///+0 -3 0
Comms took this one. +9
Back and forth…
Monday: M+10
Tuesday: C+4
Wednes: M+6
Thursday: C+9
Pretty interesting. USD dominated. But all the Comms were strong also. They were only down against the USD. Even against each other (in camp).
And tomorrow is NFP day. Very possible Majors can take it.
Here’s 0135 GMT.
Btw…thanks Peter for the words. That shoots through my mind very often. I understand.
Thank you.
Mike
It would be great if you shared your set up , a screenshot BB :). I had seen a chart of natural gas few weeks or a month ago and was thinking if there was any seasonal aspect to it. It usually rallied up during colder months and came back down during warmer months. I’m curious to see if that rally was a seasonal thing or if there was fundamental reason besides the obvious intermarket correlation that Peter has posted earlier.
[B]FE…[/B]
Great post! How is it that you’ve been keeping it all to yourself to this day? the V pattern. Thanks [B]Peter [/B]for the introduction on V pattern. You guys have convinced me on this. I have always been wary of patterns. Don’t know why. It would be great again if you could post a screenshot FE of your past trade , I /we/ could learn more that way. And possibly a further discussion. Or maybe its just me. I work better with visuals graphs and such.
And [B]Mike[/B] ! here’s how I play. I determine the bias first and foremost pick out the pairs and work with “wide” SLs it could stretch out to hundreds of pips. I could do without it as I usually do check my trades on a daily basis if they go against me then I’m forced to hold it through and it turns into a swing play. You may ask , why put SL if its that wide already. I do it because I feel at ease if you know what I mean just to know that there’s a SL however far it may be from my entry. As long as you’ve got your bias accurate tight SLs do more harm than any good. In the end its all about maximising your winners and minimizing your losses. So the strategy that I’m working out as far as trade management goes, I’m willing to sit through corrections however wide it maybe as long as I have my bias accurate like I said. You see Mike, its always hard to get in at the right time. And it could be very subjective - price action wise. Or maybe its just me I’m a sluggish technical trader. I see my chart highs, lows, open and close and the price action to get the feel and then put my orders. No matter how hard I try, it just doesn’t seem to go my way 100% well that is expected especially in trading. So I’m left with 60/40 roughly. 60% of my trades hit TP on the same day and 40% turn against me however careful I was in trying to determine my entries. I hope you see my point. If I closed each and every position that turned against me , with wide SLs I would have blown afew accounts already. But I haven’t. And this is I think where trade management comes in which I think is very crucial. Of course its as important to work out a way to tune in your entries so that you don’t have to sit through big moves. But the more I do this, the more I’m finding it harder we don’t have crystal ball. Its funny how just a month or two ago I wasn’t comfortable holding trades longer than a day. But now I’m holding it for a few days to a week. It doesn’t do any harm. Like I said if you got your bias right. The big picture. We don’t want to be too consumed by day to day news neither.
By the way I’m with the commdolls all the way until there comes a prominent trend, a dominant currency. I’m with EURAUD and eyeing on AUDJPY. I might look for kiwi pairs as for CAD I’m not too sure with declining oil prices :33:
Thank you for that Peter. I did not know about this index until now. Anyway, there might be a chance to hop in later, we’ll see. Also, check out Gasoline, the instrument is reluctant to make new lows for the third week now. Peter, is there an index for Gasoline like XNG?
I did not put much work into ProGo, I programmed it in about 10 minutes I’ve been thinking about it too, but I never planned to use it as a major indicator. A lot more effort went into the VIX Fix, that indicator is a killer. If you were behind my Junior Membership, I thank you But I have a hunch that it was because I made a 100 posts 
I looked into that seasonality and you are right. In the last 13 years, Natural Gas did rally at the end of the year (from September) except for 2008 and 2010. That is something we should make a note of.
BTW, does anybody knows a good book about seasonal tendencies?
Yes FE, forgot about the electronic trading - Williams’s theory on the Open/Close was geared towards pit trading, I think he actually showed a trade using ProGo on Silver pit prices.
So yes the effect is diminished with electronic trading. Conversely, the effect is more prominent on stocks because of the talking heads element.
When Williams first noticed the effect the medium for the talking heads was TV. Air time on TV is more precious and limited that what we have to day with the internet and social media. As a retail I go through my favourite web sites at 6.00pm, the talking head has just suggested that the banks in the UK may well fail the stress tests, I am long on 3 of the UK banks -cannot do a thing until tomorrow morning.
No sleep all night, up at the crack of dawn, telephone the broker - sell sell. The talking head had a large audience, others picked it up on twitter, by 9.00pm last night a serious web site noted “talk of stress test failures in UK banking sector”.
And so the V forms.
BTW - No UK Banks failed or likely to fail stress tests - above purely hypothetical only :).
Nat Gas’s market is heat - cold weather = bigger demand, mild winter = less demand - the investors in the gas companies were watching temperature forecasts, traders were just a little slower and maybe watching stock levels too much.
Larry Williams wrote a book a while back called How Seasonal Factors Influence Commodity Prices. It is the first ever discussing seasonals I think.
Hi Rookie,
sorry, you observation was wrong. Just through out fundamentals, seasonals, intermarket correlations etc. Read the first sentence of Peters post 1934 and BBs analysis. You already arrived to the right answer: commercials
FE
Hi guys,
I thought I share fast my NFP view. I will be watching it with a live webinar from my broker. It is always interesting because they show a live trade with entry, SL, TK etc.
This month I am even more excited then usual. I will not trade it though. The thing is that I think there is more possibility for a positive result than a negative. Still, we are in a very very very strong USD run. There was no retracment in some pairs lately. USD is just superstrong. So what I am thinking about is if a positive report can hold on to its initial reaction and gains or if it moves back. I think if we see a negative reading the move will be a lot stronger to the negative side than a strong reading to the positive side.
These are all thoughts only, who knows how it turns out.
Rookie, I have the same thoughts on comdolls and about retracements: do you remember when you got SL all the time on EUR retracments and I just sat them through in the summer? My argument was the same The thing is now though that I find the markets a lot more difficult to trade and have a clear bias. Still, the comdolls idea is for me the same, I am in many trades and will hold onto them. I expect also NZD to rise again and I am with it vs. the weaker currencies.
Mike, heads up, we all have tough times! Tell me about it…
BB, you should not make second thoughts why do you have a Junior Membership. I told you that I arranged it. :16: We should slowly more concentrate on the COT report tonight and on the weekend we look for the great possibilities. It is interesting what Peter showed. Makes me a bit angry because I thought your COT analysis was on Gasoline earlier which is another product and I cannot trade it. However I do have “Natural Gas” so I could have been into that one… What a missed opportunity.
On the RUB. Well, this is the first case in my COT history when the signal has no meaning. Good of course that I did not go long and I did not want to when I did the analysis. This very extreme economic situation just “killed COT extremes”. It is good not to be in the market there and wait until the turn. This week the pair moved from 43.00 to 48.75! Wow that will be a nice ride with carry trade to the down side. What an extreme. Guys, you can still look on the 1H chart for USD/RUB. There is something very strange going on. That is very unusual for my eyes… Philip, the technical analyser? What can be so choppy with an opposite direction in every hour? The is a huge indecision right there.
So guys, good luck for the last trading day of the week,
FE