The FX Market Is Crazy These Days. How Did You Handle It? :-)

You’re long DAX :expressionless:
I hope you get out without too big a loss. This isn’t going to be over for months yet.

1 Like

The social implication is what’s causing this. People are already panicking and staying home, not spending money. This is at the very start of the pandemic. Without a mass produced vaccine, we’ve got months to go until the peak is reached. Thousands of small to medium sized businesses are going to be closing from lack of income. People won’t be able to afford mortgages and rent. Rent and property prices will come down. Millions of people globally will lose a significant amount of their income this year, less money into the economy, less profits, lower stock prices. The longer this lasts, the wider the implications for the economy.

Stopping the virus seems absolutely futile. China seem to have managed it and Italy are trying. But it only takes another break out and all that pain was for nothing. The way it spreads, it seems highly likely that these countries will see further outbreaks.

Most of the big economies have barely recovered from 2008.

1 Like

When I say ‘small’ that means for short period of time - in that instance only until the US market takes over - then the US10yr and US stock market become the leader.

If looking at EU stock market - they only lead when the Yanks are still asleep :slight_smile:

Which post? - i haven’t deleted a post in years

Btw - if you check the date and time of my’buying a small on dax’ you will note that it was March 13 UK morning.

Here is how the dax performed rest of the day following that:
DaxMar13th

Also worth noting - the turning point - doji or whatever it’s called - that’s when the US wakened up. :slight_smile:

Sorry, I’m tired and being peevish.

The sharp bit will be short, but most of the major economies aren’t in any better shape than they were in 2008. It could well be decades to recover and the government borrowing is going to put many countries at 150%+ debt vs GDP.

2 Likes

Trading for a day isn’t analysing risk sentiment though, it’s just catching a retracement from a big move. Probably short sellers closing their positions. The market is 100% risk off and heading that way.

US waking up certainly mixes things up a bit. So does London. There used to be a thread on here that showed all 3 trading times which was most bought and sold. It was very interesting to see that the sentiment was different in each zone, probably for business reasons, but it made me very aware that at certain times you need to be careful. Today is a good example, the blue line marks London open, up trend for 10 hours goes completely the other way

imagestrong text

I seldom use 15 min charts but a little thing I picked up some years ago re ftse and timing.

Often around 8-9 am price will change direction - so if in the later part of Asia the futures are headed up then watch will price turn - usually does.

Edit: uk time

Another edit - just remembered posting about this back a few years:

I usually stay away from trading, but I still analyze the market and try to find only A+ setups.

1 Like

Nothing much. Just watching contagion again and again and again and again and again. Weirdly accurate, that film is :slightly_smiling_face:

Though I’ve short the EUR, AUD and XAU. So let’s see how it all goes

1 Like

One annoying factor I have noticed concerns my long-term trades. These typically rely on entry if going long at breach of a lower daily high, with a stop-loss at that day’s low. Recently the daily ranges have been so wide that tactic would have entailed a capital risk of just too high a percentage of my account, even at minimum position sizes.

This is keeping me out of some good opportunities but I’m not going to change strategies just for a one-off bonus.

1 Like

The unpredictable challenges of the current market is an experience. Learning to keep both accounts in the green.

2 Likes

I’m just studying the market. in times of panic like these, not negotiating can be very profitable. today open a position in aud / usd after days of study and observation.

1 Like

I’m keeping my risk relatively low. I don’t plan to hold positions over the weekend.

2 Likes

Low risk, risk what you’re willing to lose. If you’re on demo, great time to see how your analysis holds up. Also a great time to see how breaking news affects the market. Psychological teachings, for free. You just watch the charts.

And with all of the central bank action, wow, lots of analysis to read and digest. Crappy time in the line of existence, but you make as best you can out of the situation.

I predict a large rally in stocks coming - if you look at the VIX term structure it’s in backwardation.

The front month Vix is higher than the second month indicating lower volatility.

I put a tentative long on the FTSE yesterday, will see how that pans out.

Thanks for your replies guys. Keep it coming. :slight_smile:

Yes, I have noticed the same thing. An approach I often like is to look for a more elegant Entry on a lower TF - there might be a nice cycle on the 240 or the Hourly, enabling an Entry half way up the Daily bar or something. Sorry, I know you know this stuff - just rambling really - but really am here just to say that yes, I have seen the same thing. I’m happy to cover a big spread if I am planning to hold a trade a while, but I wouldn’t at the moment so am not doing it.

In terms of a wider response to the thread - am basically sitting out at the moment, I don’t trade crises. Patience aided by all six of us being isolated at home for the next few weeks (eldest son, 15, has a persistent cough - schools have benched us).

Stay safe, everybody.

ST

1 Like

Cheers. Holding times in periods like the present are an issue - needs a wide stop distance and maybe no TP at all if that’s going to be viable. I would drop to intra-day t/f’s if I was going to hold intra-day, but I don’t see that as automatically lower risk. I think I’m in the minority on this opinion).

Sitting out could just be the best option.

Stay safe, in all respects.

Im a beginner but I would say get off at the nearest station

1 Like