they say it is dangerous if someone can read thoughts. Well it has just happened. Yesterday I was travelling quite a lot and I have seen everywhere snow. So I thought: “It would be good to look around the world what is the weather forecast because if it is so cold and so much snow everywhere then demand will go up and raise the prices for NAT GAS. So I should better look into it in details.” And I just open the thread now and see you guys analysed it already
BB,
the COT report comes out soon but I will not analyse it. The thing is, it is already Tuesday night, maybe we would be ready Wednesday afternoon and the new report would come out in 2 days again. I do not see a reason to do the work, especially if we are not trading at all. I do the two analysis together on the weekend.
My focus this past year is learning inter market, purpose is to give me a clear directional bias short term, coupled with cot then I can get long term.
Focus also is to catch momentum with WS and thus minimize DD, my hated enemy.
There is one other thing that I intend to use inter market for. I mentioned about 6 months ago using a hedging technique instead of a SL - well that will be my focus for the year ahead.
Such a technique will allow me to remain in the trade with little drawdown and then exit the hedge when the trade turns positive.
An example of such a trade was yesterday, USD/JPY was falling, the question was how far down would a buy be. I had 119.55 in mind, but an entry there on the way down would have required DD of 70 pips (too much).
Falling USD/JPY represents risk off, so I could hedge long on either Gold (which sometimes can be too volatile) or it’s quieter sister Silver.
Silver was bouncing off it’s Mid Asian level so a buy anywhere at that level for hedge.
Ok I was looking at the chart. I’m fairly confident we’ll see a bounce in Oil in January. I do not know however where it move up but its at least to $60. May be much more even.
Well what have I been up to? Just starting to come out of the closet (been locked in and the door is unlocked now and starting to open). Been studying very very much and getting ready for the coming year. I have been off of work the last 2 weeks. Have to go back today (Friday it’s now), but the good thing is the weekend is upon us now. I’ll get through this day and finish my vacation for a couple more days. But, for the last 2 weeks I have spent sooooo much time (still been waking up at 3am everyday and working till she wakes up, around 8 ish, then at times throughout the day) trying to figure out the secrets of the universe. The forex universe. I completed a major thorough wrap up of each currency’s looooonnnggg term perspective. I call it the long term intercurrency analysis. (How they related to each other). I have it all down on paper. Basically a heading for “historically related”, then next is what happened at the “recession”, which was starting in 2007 but went crazy Aug '08 to Jan '09. And then how they related to each other from the “recession” to the present. So all that gave me an output of a long term rating against each other.
And I rate them on whoever is trending high down to trending low between each other. So whoever has more trending highs are rated higher than the trending lows.
Also I have been working on my trading plan/strategy for this year.
I’m not quite there yet, but there is much I’m contemplating. This is some of the major points I will be working on. These are the questions I will be always asking. What is the flow? What is changing?
Since I always keep track of everything, I can see and will be able to answer those questions.
I am seriously thinking of trading mostly with the changing current rather than with the predominant trend.
Also I will be working on trading more accurately with the time frames/time periods. That’s hard to explain but generally staying in trades with whatever time frames I’m dealing with. Not to jump out to early.
And one more thing I’m seriously thinking. And that is trading complete currencies. It’s along the lines of hedging also (Peter). More specifically trading a currency across the board.
All this has to do with the data I collect. I want to put that to work for me. I do not want to do that for nothing. (well, more than the fact of knowing what’s going on in the market)
We all know what’s the flow now. And that is the USD boss. See, last year if I would have gotten in with them in Jun, July and kept with that flow, I would’ve been well off. There was a change. (they were really weak and turned very strong mid year ). And that’s what I want to do this year. See change happening, get in on it, and ride it till I see another change. The CAD went through much change last year. (were very weak in the beginning and changed to very strong).
So, now, I see the AUD very weak. And I will be watching very very closely the numbers to change for them. Wait for confirmation, and get in with them.
So guys, what do you think? Can I get some feedback from you all? I want this year to be positive results for me. I want to see it all on paper. Since that’s the only thing I’m good at, keeping track. I’m hoping to see my trades reflect what has been happening in the market.
I thought you were sleeping through the whole winter, you were very quiet. Now I know it is not the case and you are still working. That is great! I think we can reflect better on the trades if you will show live examples with charts. It sound good but it is a bit hard to imagine for me how it works in practice.
And it would be great if you do not do those calculations on paper but rather in excel as this way you can also share your findings with us.
I wish you a great 2015 and reaching your 200pips/month goal.
Sleeping through winter? He was getting up at 3 am I can’t even imagine how difficult could that be
Anyway, it is great to see you already have your goals set up for 2015, although I’m having a hard time understanding exactly what is that you are up to. Are you examining the correlation relationship between currency pairs? Or their behavior in different economic times?
Since we are discussing our plans for the year, I should share mine as well.
First and foremost, I want to find a way to speed up the update of the COT report. By speeding up, I mean automatize it completely. It should be possible to create macro in Excel which does the trick.
Since I’ll be working this year, I won’t have as much free time as I did in 2014. On the bright side though, I’ll have more capital to invest. To invest according to my Trading Plan which is finally set in stone (I wrote it down), along with a Risk Management method and a Trading Journal template.
I’ll continue to investigate intermarket relationships during the year which should give me a better understanding of Hedging possibilities (thanks for Peter for pointing it out).
I’m also planning to play for meaningful stakes. One of the best books I’ve read last year was Zurich Axioms, in which the author explained why it is important to risk more than we find comfortable. If you want a refreshing read which is related to investing (speculating), I suggest you give it a try. Oh, and there’s another book which I found to be enlightening and fun to read at the same time. It’s called the Power of Habits by Charles Duhigg. You’ll be surprised to discover how dependent you are on your old (bad?) habits thorough the day and how you don’t even notice it.
I made some more plans but since they are not related to investing, I won’t waste your time with those.
did you check the CFTC website? Until this moment there is no report there again. I do not get it. On the site they do not mention that the report will be delayed again however the data is still from 23.12.2014. I wanted to do the report because the weekend looks busy but there seems to be a problem.
I am waiting for you answer and good luck to your 2015 goals.
did you check the CFTC website? Until this moment there is no report there again. I do not get it. On the site they do not mention that the report will be delayed again however the data is still from 23.12.2014. I wanted to do the report because the weekend looks busy but there seems to be a problem.
I am waiting for you answer and good luck to your 2015 goals.
FE[/QUOTE]
Report is released Monday due to new year holiday.
Congrats Philip! That is a good start of the year for you. I am cautious, mostly interested in the S&P these days. So Peter’s analysis are great to study it. What did you trade to make those profits? Anything new on oil?
Hey guys…FE.
You wanted Dec results a couple weeks ago. Well, we have 2 more weeks of data, to complete out the month.
Things have changed. I’ll show you what happened for the entire month.
If you want to look back at that last post, what changed in the last 2 weeks was 2 things mostly.
The GBP dropped off much. And the JPY has come back at the end.
I also see the AUD coming back.
