I got lucky today and caught most of the big move in GBPCAD, 180 pips so far. Good news fora change
Iâm curious how are we going to use this piece of information in trading ? in practice ?
Hey guys.
Tuesdaysâs results.
CHF: +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
GBP: +6 -1 0///+3 -0 0
USD: +5 -2 0///+3 -0 0
AUD: +4 -3 0///+2 -3 0
EUR: +3 -4 0///+2 -1 0
JPY : +2 -5 0///+2 -1 0
CAD: +1 -6 0///+0 -5 0
NZD: +0 -7 0///+0 -5 0
Majors took this one also. By quite much.
Comms taking a hit so far this week.
Oh, and PhilipâŚgood job man! Surely today has turned some tides for the GBP. I have a few of changes for their trending figures. They moved up on all the Comms today. Interesting!
Also to note. The NZD has moved DOWN a lot today. I have them changing trends against USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, and AUD. That is very notable for me.
CAD has changed trends LOWER against the GBPâŚPhilip. Good job.
0145 GMT
Mike
I also got lucky with selling NZD, 120 pips against AUD and 70 against yen. Why do you think it went down that much?
To me Iâll use it to guard against potential reversals, it seems to work alright if aided with other tools.
Speaking of reversals, COT index for dollar is at an extreme for tops. FE was asking BB about gold and silver, and I think we both would agree that this rally could mean that the 1170s reached in gold was a bottom. In terms of seasonality, this is the best month of the year for Dollar. In other words this is where the dollar tops.
So a lot of things lined up here in January, are we possibly seeing some early signs of a potential top in the dollar? May be a surprise of not raising hikes in Q2 for example? What do you guys think?
Hi Philip,
I always liked your seasonality analysis as I do not do those. Maybe you can summarize them.
I am not so sure about shorting the NZD. They can lose days too, but yesterday dairy prices went up again so this is I think 3 price rises in a row which is good for them for sure.
Yes, I would like to see BBs charts so I can see if it is a reversal or a retracement.
FE
I decided to volunteer and do a real time analysis to Gold if thatâs ok. Both FE and myself seem to be intrigued about what happened there.
So letâs see what we have here:
Black lines: 100 and 200 MA.
Blue line: 20 EMA, Yellow line: 50 EMA.
Oscillators from top to bottom: Commercial Index (156), WILLCO (24) and stochastic.
- Price is below 100 MA and 200 MA, this indicates a bearish trend for gold.
- The Blue line (20 EMA) is below the yellow (50 EMA), again indicates a bearish signal for gold.
- Comm index was not at an extreme buying area, although it was in the high 80s nine weeks ago.
- Notice that price has respected the black line.
- The red vertical lines are very important. They indicate the number of times the stochastic went overbought and crossed over. Each time the stochastic has done that the price of gold fell off a cliff.
Stochastic reached overbought for the fourth time last week (96). Yet despite making gains this week, Goldâs stochastic is now pointing lower (89). This indicates that another crossover (a fall off a cliff) is near by.
Conclusion All elements point that this recent rally was a pullback and that the bearish trend will resume. However, Iâd argue for patience until the close of this weekly candle (and probably the close of next weekâs candle as well) before selling Gold again.
I hope this helped.
FE here is a list of brokers that forgave negative balances, I think you asked for something similar a couple of pages back.
I have already sent FE my COT Excel which contains the data on Gold and Silver. I have very limited spare time, thatâs why Iâm not really responding. Anyway, Iâm prepared to short Gold or Silver once I see enough evidence from the Commercials and my Intermarket Analysis.
Nice link. Thanks Philip for posting it.
Tomorrow is a high risk day, especially for Euro, and also for Dax.
The S&P tonight is showing sign of bullishness, but strangely it is being led up by the energy sector, yet wti is not showing anything special = nat gas is showing some signs of life as is XNG.
I thought to see the Financials doing better in anticipation of ECB, but they are actually flat despite healthy volume at the open - just wondering about that volume, if at the open was it retail?
Anyways, another strange thing, if any of you are running Oanda MT4 check out DE10YBEUR - itâs been falling all day - thatâs not what I expected to see given the expectation of ECB bond buying that everyone says is going to be announced.
LOL, maybe after the SNB Iâm seeing spooks under the bed 
[QUOTE=âpeterma;678645â]Tomorrow is a high risk day, especially for Euro, and also for Dax. The S&P tonight is showing sign of bullishness, but strangely it is being led up by the energy sector, yet wti is not showing anything special = nat gas is showing some signs of life as is XNG. I thought to see the Financials doing better in anticipation of ECB, but they are actually flat despite healthy volume at the open - just wondering about that volume, if at the open was it retail? Anyways, another strange thing, if any of you are running Oanda MT4 check out DE10YBEUR - itâs been falling all day - thatâs not what I expected to see given the expectation of ECB bond buying that everyone says is going to be announced. LOL, maybe after the SNB Iâm seeing spooks under the bed :)[/QUOTE]
Very high risk day. The fact that details of the QE package were âleakedâ today and euro could not sustain a move lower does not bode well for euro bears. Releases like the one coming up tend to find ways to move in the direction that will screw over the most retail positions⌠In this case the retail screwing move would be up. Maybe a brief spike down to bait the suckers in, then a big move up to clear out the shorts.
The âbattleâ thatâs going on in ECB is the result of Germanyâs historical dislike of money printing, thatâs a long story, bottom line is that they are trying to exert some pressure that would end up with each national central bank doing itâs own QE.
Some other member states say this idea is silly. Officially the ECB say 'we are independent and will make up our own mind (if this is so then why has it taken so long to reach this point).
Second best for Germany will be a greater focus on Corporate bond buying which hasnât the same feel of money printing, so if I had been buying German bonds in a belief that there was going to be a large central bank following me, and then maybe the focus switches to either the above two scenarios, think Iâd exit my bonds.
If there is a focus on corporates, well then I wouldnât expect to see much selling in the Dax.
Yesterday evening the Irish Fin minister challenged the ECB on what he called âthe re- nationalisation of the banking sector in EZâ if it is true that they intend to have each member buy their own bonds - the reply:
ECB board member Benoit Coeure said no decision had been made about quantitative easing and how it might be operated.
German bond yield is notably higher today. Some are interpreting this as a sign that details have been leaked that Germany may avoid participating in the QE package. A theory that if true, would leave the market disappointed and the euro higher.
Remember guys that when Global notes that the yields are rising then price is falling - the malaise has spread to the uS10yr.
I exited 2 small longs taken late this evening on S&P, Iâm not happy with the fact that energy is the big time leader, the other leaders were all defensives.
In a major risk event sometimes I would look to trade something with less risk, so will have a look at dax tomorrow morning, a low risk buy on a break of Mondayâs high - mind you I think Iâll buy a guaranteed stop.
Hey guys.
Wednesdayâs results.
CHF: +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
JPY : +5 -1 1///+3 -0 0
EUR: +5 -1 1///+3 -0 0
USD: +3 -3 1///+3 -0 0
GBP: +3 -3 1///+3 -0 0
AUD: +2 -5 0///+0 -5 0
NZD: +1 -6 0///+0 -5 0
CAD: +0 -7 0///+0 -5 0
Majors took it by much.
Split down party lines. Majors over Comms. Itâs been nothing but a MAJOR week.
0100 GMT
Mike
Couldnât be possible that oil companies are leading because they expect QE? That should have a positive impact on oil demand no?
I shared a post months ago from the former PIMCO guy, I think El-Erian, he said that now with central banks diverging we should expect âwildâ moves in the market. Itâs been two weeks and we have seen crazy moves in CHF and CAD. So I wouldnt rule out sth crazy happening in ECB as well.
Hi Peter,
great that you reminded us for the fact that Global was talking about yields and not prices. It seems like you know us quite good.
I attach a chart, which can be of course wrong but the signals are usually good. It talks for itself, I do not need to discuss it. I would like to hear your opinion on it.
FE
Hi Philip,
after the daily S&P chart in the last post, I attach the gold daily W/S for you. Look, it turned from the extreme.
FE
Hi Peter,
I have another question. How can that happen that at my broker platform Wheat had a green (bullish) candle for yesterday and in oanda it was a red (bearish) candle for yesterday for wheat? Are there so huge differences for the different brokers?
FE