The fact that the S&P risers is down only to energy and none of the other offensives, particularly Financials makes me suspect that the buyers in stocks are ‘bottom pickers’. If it is investor sentiment is the driver then you would expect similar buying in sectors such as financials and discretionary - unless there is a story yet to emerge on energy - anyways, if it is bottom pickers then that doesn’t fill me with any confidence.
Many times in the S&P, I see the beginnings of a rise, and at the same time the buying is in the offensive sectors (all of them) then that becomes my investor sentiment indicator and often that buying will gain enough momentum to warrant getting me getting in, likewise the opposite in selling.
The battle continues over at ECB, the French Fin minister also joining in “Germany, leave the ECB alone” he is shouting - confirms that Germany is indeed exerting pressure on ECB, big surprise.
Great stuff Philip ! But have you noticed that Gold has been ranging right from the start where you highlighted the red lines ? I’m wondering how Stochastics behaved prior the range started while it was in a free fall per se downtrend where it fell below the black line. I’m sure if combine this up with COT , I see a weekly support btw, I bet whenever it rallies a bit ‘correction’ commercials COT index might have reached extreme. I’ll look into it on the weekends.
Finally, before the big news, a little note on ‘manipulation’
Last night the dax was pressing up against 10314 (live feed\0 , it seemed reasonable that a buy stop would be safe , the high of Monday was 10337 so a break of that at 10340 + spread, say 10343 would be safe.
But why wait until today?, why not set it last night, after all price may go on up in Asia.
I’d seldom trade dax or ftse during Asia, lack of liquidity is a manipulators ally. What actually happened during Asia was price did break Monday during Asia - by 6 points, an buy at 10343 would have been triggered.
Problem is that it would have taken a stop of 120 to stay alive - so I’d say a lot of buy stops have been liquidated.
The stochastic works better with the blue and yellow line rather than the black lines. Stochastic is almost always oversold when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA and overbought when the 20 cross above the 50.
So to answer your question, when gold 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, stochastic was oversold and we expected a rally soon. Switching to the daily chart or 4HR and waiting for the 20 EMA to cross above the 50 EMA would have helped you find those rallies.
[QUOTE=“peterma;678971”]The difference a day makes - a beautiful picture, full of confidence. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE] with risk sentiment looking like that hopefully you’ve got a usdjpy long open
Lol - I maxed out on the S&P, but that USD/JPY sure likes to react to risk - nice and steady too reaching down to yesterday’s low - all the TA guys are shouting 'told you so, can’t beat a dbl bottom".
I suppose I am in two minds about the entire ECB QE. I suspect the ‘leaks’ were deliberate, and not a bad approach, I hoped, for my own reasons, to see a floor in EUR/GBP, I didn’t get that but providers are quoting 75.00, could have been (even yet) a lot worse.
The other part of me is saying ‘at last, and not before time’, sure we have a weaker Euro, thank goodness a weakish GBP to go with it, now I’m hoping that Europe will lift itself out of the doldrums.
Btw, I think too the Germans are secretly in complete agreement, but it’s good for votes to create a little distance.
Someone once told me that FX is boring - it’s very far from that
Well guys if you looked at the two charts I posted early in the day, we can say the S&P signal was indeed very good, but the turn for gold did not occur. I as quite surprise when it turned up again. Especially as S&P was also rising.
FE, yes was watching Gold - it deviated from the expected at after 14.00 gmt - USD/JPY reached down for yesterday’s low at that time and then did the dbl bottom thing - likewise Gold reached up for yesterday’s high at the same time - then despite USD/JPY finding buys there were no sells for Gold.
Having said that, I saw some guys commenting that they expected Gold to head skyward on QE - the apparent reason for the gold highs is not it’s risk sentiment attachment, it’s the fact that Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, QE is intended to create stimulus and thus increase inflation.
Now the question in my mind is this - are the gold traders slightly ahead of the curve or not, only time will tell.
Great debate currently on tv re QE, just listening to a 'leading German Economist" denouncing the entire project.
Just saw the post on the bear vs bull candles, I suspect a different time zone maybe, compare the live price numbers to see if this is so.
I added up the pips, no brainer. But, am I correct about the percentage? I have each pair’s percentage written down. So I just added them up for each of the 8 currencies.
Is that how they come up with how much of a currency appreciated in a day?
And that’s how I came up with the M/C figures also. Added them straight up.
If you want to see how interesting that is…just add up all the Majors pips’ and Comms’ pips, you will see they are equal. Except one is positive and one is negative. And same with the percentage part.
So the Majors have -701 pips, and -4.54% .
I read somewhere that pips really don’t mean much. But, it is the % that does. So, looks like I must get used to putting things into perspective that way. Look up there at the GBP and the AUD. The AUD actually had more pips than the GBP, but the pound was up % wise more.
IMO the percentages are not right. You have to divide them by 7. EUR fall something similar against CHF a week ago. Hopefully with don’t see those over 10% moves often. But even if you divide it by seven it questionable if they are correct becuase your pip evaluation gives the same value for all pips although GBP/NZD and EUR/USD have completely different pip values for the same lot size.
I have seen % stats changes only on a given pair. For example EUR/USD lost 1.43% yesterday blablabla.
This is important to me. But, I don’t understand what your saying. So, this is what I did. I took a snap shot of the day, 1 minute before closing. This is my broker’s figures.
So with that, I can add up the pips. And the percentages are there also. So…I figure I would just add up the individual percentages per currency. Maybe since you have them there, tell me what you think the best way is to come up with a macro % of each currency, for the day.
Mike
Edit…well I guess that wasn’t a good idea. I see we can’t see too well with that shot.
here is an example why I have a problem with the way you add up your percentages.
Let’s say you have 3 kids. They are 5, 7 and 9 years old. 1 year later I ask you how much older are your kids since we last met? What would you say? With your formula: 3x1=3. So you would say they are 3 years older. With my formula: 3x1/3 (number of kids)=1. The answer with my formula is 1 because I divided the answer with the number of kids. You just added them up. It is basically the same calculation with percentages what you did. I did not want to now calculate percentage differences.
hmmm I was checking the daily charts at my broker and oanda.
Here are the 3 main differences:
You are definitely right with time difference. But there is more than that.
The oanda chart is not as flat as my broker’s. You cannot even recognize sometimes that I see the same commodities at two brokers because they look completely different on the same TF. This is because my broker has a lot more candles on the chart so there has to be a lot larger movement to see significant candle.
Very important that on the daily TF oanda shows Sunday as a normal day so I have 6 weekly candles instead of the mostly used 5. This can be good on small TFs but not on the daily. I wish I could turn this of.
I’m assuming you’d have to compare it to a day prior to calculate the changes. I’m not exactly sure how you came up with % for individual currencies where as I see at your brokers feed you have them for pairs ?? and you mentioned you got it out from your brokers feed. How ?
Well, you see what I see, on my brokers screen. And I do know that that is at the end of the day. Because in one more minute they will all reset to 0, pips and %. So I have to assume it’s the compilation of the days pips/%.
I would appreciate it if you could help me in this.
I want to rank each currency according to pips, and %. On a daily basis. And you see the figures that my broker can give me. This will help me track of each currency (against one another), from strongest down to the weakest. But, I do think it will be more accurate if it is done according to a % of gain/loss.
So, if all the %'s are correct, for a pair, in a given day, then how can I compile them to get a macro view of each currency?
If all you are doing is using the percentages as a means for relative comparison then it really doesn’t matter if you divide by 7 (if you have 7 currencies) or just take the cumulative total.
If you do it how FE is suggesting then you’ll come up with an “average” that the currency moved against the others… It would make the percentage smaller and probably nicer to work with but the relative ranking would be the same as you would get even if you didn’t divide to get the “average”.
Let’s as you wanted to find the % of the euro, I’ll just use four pairs in this example from today’s daily candle.
Eurusd: -0.96%
eurnzd: -0.32%
Eurjpy: -1.50%
Eurgbp: -1%
If you simply added them up you’d get eur=-3.78%… But the euro did not move -3.78%… so you would want to average the number as FE suggested to get a synthetic isolated currency percentage… About -0.95%… But again if all you are doing is ranking currencies, then the cumulative percentage would give you the same rankings without the extra hassle of taking the average.
Ok guys I was so excited for the new COT report, I had to check right away gold. Well well… the 6 months COT index reached its extreme. Surprise surprise. Exactly what I was looking for. It made a nice jump with the new data.
