There’s a rumour SNB might do something to boost EURCHF , specs are probably pricing in lower on CHF on that piece - further ease but they’ve already got negative LIBOR rates. The only thing that comes to my mind is intervention or another peg ? Either way I’ll stay away from franc. FE was very right, I wouldn’t even want to look at CHF charts for the next few months or so. It’s a mess.
And SNB head says that he didn’t think the aftermath of his decision would be this dramatic - CHF got much more boost than he and his fellow bankers had thought I suppose and now what ? another intervention to boost EURCHF. Sounds like a great idea. I don’t know how all this is going to affect its safe haven status. Global ?
AUD is due for some correction real soon, but the maintrend is down at least against USD. What plans have you got Mike ?
I went with the GBP against the Comms on Monday. (3 trades) And I just jumped out now. +161.9 pips.
I was up just over 200 pips about an hour before the GBP news comes out. But after seeing it drop that much, I wanted to take profit. Presently it is about 12 minutes before the GDP news hits. I’m waiting to see what the figures come out to be. I’m so tired of not taking profit, that’s why I jumped.
Was up against NZD, CAD, but down against the AUD.
I have my eye on the GBP. And watching the flow of the Comms.
BTW…your all right. Who in their right mind would even think of playing with the CHF.
All I do is keep track.
I do. However it has nothing to do with technicals. All I said there is no reason to look at the charts.
And it was good to take profits. As Peter said many times, there is nothing wrong to cash in your chips. You did not want to gamble with the news, that is not bad. Interesting your bullish view on GBP, I do not get what is driving it higher. I just do not see any reasons for it. Oh well…
It’s not the best time to be have positions running long term besides the dollar pairs. That was the easiest trade to manage of all, looking back. Guess its right. Trend is your friend. Just got GBP data updates on my phone. Doesn’t look good. Is that your short term plays riding up GBP ? Hows your long term trades running ?
No long term trades going.
Pretty sparse on the trading lately.
I think your right. The only good long term trading that’s panning out would be with the USD. And since I’m not in with them, I have to wait.
JPY… comes and goes. Risky.
Comms… took a big hit last week. So no flow with them yet.
CHF… no way. Not until I see some pattern, down the road.
GBP…was hoping. But will have to see how they really react to the not-so-good news. As the week progresses.
EUR…nothing.
CAD…risky.
Critical point just now on risk, US10yr right at resistance, and USD/JPY at support - break to upside on 10yr will give further downside momentum to S&P and USD/JPY.
Already short on S&P, if no break the will exit to re-enter, waiting …
Good that you wrote. Wanted to ask what is this USD weakness everywhere. USDX lost a lot in the last hours. The news events are not that important, also not tier 1 events so it couldn’t be it.
Currency related.
Maybe I’m wrong, but coming up on the close of London now. Looking like the GBP is taking over. Moving on up, across the board. And given that bad news, I’m wondering this.
Is the pound gonna be the front runner instead of the USD? Will they be the currency of choice for awhile, in lieu of the USD?
I’m thinking yes.
Thoughts?
Well I think that you will notice Euro is rallying as well. I noticed that Euro rallies for two weeks everytime ECB comes out with something big. I think though it is a tradeable rally and that’s why I’m in it.
Yeah I’m with you Mike. There hasn’t been much going thats worth the risk. My plan with currency trading is to ride trends that are prominent on higher TFs. We’ll have to wait patiently.
Majors were +537 pips over the Comms.
Interesting. Yesterday and Today we had both EUR, GBP on top. 2 in a row now.
And if you guys haven’t noticed already, Wednesday’s usually bring some kind of turn. (Well, I have noticed that, given the number crunching)
And the AUD CPI data came out. I guess it’s good news. At first I thought it wasn’t good. But, at a closer look, it is. They shot up the old 60 pips, across the board.
So, it would be really great if we can get GlobalMacro in here to explain the results. And any implications that might bring.
Doc…I always need your input also. Give us your macro view on how the AUD fits in the mix, now.
I’d really like it if you showed the big picture, weekly and monthly results when a week and a month ends. I don’t see you doing that anymore.
And I’ll do some research its been a while, I thought I wasn’t left with any regular readers anymore I’m up with USDCAD aiming for 1.2500 we’ll see how that goes.
[QUOTE=“Mike Wolski;679995”]Guys. Tuesday’s results. EUR: +603///.69 GBP: +359///.27 CAD: +170///.26 JPY : +145///.21 CHF: -162///-.18 NZD: -255///-.24 USD: -408///-.49 AUD: -452///-.51 Majors were +537 pips over the Comms. Interesting. Yesterday and Today we had both EUR, GBP on top. 2 in a row now. And if you guys haven’t noticed already, Wednesday’s usually bring some kind of turn. (Well, I have noticed that, given the number crunching) And the AUD CPI data came out. I guess it’s good news. At first I thought it wasn’t good. But, at a closer look, it is. They shot up the old 60 pips, across the board. So, it would be really great if we can get GlobalMacro in here to explain the results. And any implications that might bring. Doc…I always need your input also. Give us your macro view on how the AUD fits in the mix, now. 0135 shot <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Mike P.S. —My take…The Comms will flip it on Wed., and both EUR and GBP on bottom. But, who ends up stronger at the end of the week?[/QUOTE] Yeh the inflation numbers from the Aussie weren’t horrible… In some regards didn’t even meet the consensus… But speculators (me included) were really gear up for a BAD number that would justify a rate cut in February. Instead of the ugly number that I was hoping for, we still got a soft inflation number which means the RBA can keep rates low, but it won’t be sounding any alarms that a rate cut is needed next month. It’s going to have a hard time breaking under .7900 now until the RBA meeting provides clarity.
We discussed the idea of many factors lining up that signals a possible dollar top forming in January. now Adam Button seems to be echoing our discussion on the matter a little bit. I think that conversation was with Global Macro.
The other thing that’s worthy of noting is that if you use the golden ratio on the monthly chart in the way we discussed, your trading bias will line up perfectly with Adam’s view (violent fall in USD, significant bounce in Euro, and strong commodity currencies.)
Let’s keep an eye on this idea as the months progress.
I don’t know how EUR could bounce back so quick, and commdolls gaining momentum. EURUSD is due for some correction commercials 3 year index at 93, Willco was 100 the week prior last week and it came down to 90s as of last tuesday. SNB announced that it would do something to boost EURCHF. QE coming underway the results ? far too early to judge. After all that EURCHF falling, EUR needed a correction.
I was reading BoC latest monetary policy statement, again with falling oil no good news from them as their policy revolves around crude oil and they cut their rate, according to BoC it would be at least 2 years average to put things back on track. AUD ? everyones expecting a rate cut, a housing bubble was a concern a while back with affordable loans. NZD even with 3 consecutive positive dairy reading, it seems to be diving down even further. GBP isn’t in any better condition given its dependence on the EU. All I have on my cards thats doing decent is USD. Fundamentally as a whole. I just don’t see a reason for it crushing down. There’s so much uncertainty going on. I mean thats how I see. A lot of shaping up to do in the market. Besides dollar pairs I don’t see any prominent trends, there were some with yen pairs. We’ll see.
Fundamentally I don’t see any single currency that is capable of trending up on higher TFs against the majority, except the USD. I don’t deny USD topping - then we might be presented with a range bound pairs across the board with occasional yen rallies.
That was a pretty damn good explanation which reflects also all my thoughts. Cannot argue with any part of it. For me the two questions which you also could not see the reasons for is the strong GBP and weak NZD. I see the fundamentals a bit the other direction as the charts lately show for those two currnecies but as they see, we have to trade what we see and not what we want to see!
Staying at the conclusion of your post, in such a market condition it might be the right time to trade those indices and commodities.
