What a good post Doc. Thanks!
My sentiment is with FE also.
I think today (given Philip’s post recently about the USD) will set the stage for something to come. After the USD meeting, something has to give. Either they retract a whole lot, or continue to overall dominate.
But…in any case…I’m always hoping for a good slant one way or the other. And not a ranging across the board condition, as Doc mentioned.
You know…we should be looking at the CHF. In some respects. Look, they did a big move. So big to change things up. I mean, we have had a look at what the (money) big players have done. And now we should be monitoring since then where the money is flowing to.
I just think we shouldn’t be ignoring them completely (which is my first sentiments).
Well on the index front the S&P is being led down by energies, which is not surprising since energy prices haven’t reflected the optimism in that sector over the last 5 day period.
Energy accounted for the gains over that period, so now will it return those gains to sender?
Sometimes a picture will paint 1000 words, the yellow line is counting back 5 days from yesterday’s close, then there is that little congestion, I have marked it with a down arrow - that was where I put the target line.
Then
Then the reasoning, Energy had led up over 5 days - yet no energy price rise, so today Energy was leading down, thus the target level:
This is the live chart of the S&P from my broker, all lines generated by computer, the dotted line is s1 daily Pivot, I always keep an eye on these in fast moves.
as I look for every reason why gold should lose value, I thought I ask you guys to tell me without emotions if the indicators really are showing a start of a downtrend.
A like is guaranteed on most of your posts Peter, with just a quick glance. I hear a lot traders talk about daily/weekly pivot points in correspondence to different time frames. And I have read that traders often using it as a potential area of interest S&R areas. Hows that different from just looking at a daily chart and drawing the areas myself ?
And on your theory , energy being the leader in S&P500s up and downturns, how long have you been observing that ?
From a technical point of view, GLDX seem to be finding resistance on 200MA. Price failed to make new highs and is heading down. But i see 50MA right down at 10.79 price might bounce back at that area and if it fails to make a new high on daily I’ll take that as a short.
I see your point, but I’ve been reading on CHF. Unemployment rate has been rising continuously while productivity stayed solid. Inflation figures in December came at 15 month low and SNB introduced negative rates. After the cap was gone, CHF rallied across the board. After all its been hold for 3 years against its will , the reaction would be that much wouldn’t it. And now they’re talking to boost EURCHF, in one way or another I’m sure they think CHF is valued somewhat or outrageously higher than its underlying fundamentals. Strong CHF is going to weigh on GDP growth and overall economic expansion. But it would be interesting to follow through what happens with CHF. What I’m wondering the most is its safe haven status ??? I’m not playing with the bulls on CHF.
Philip, I read an article on bloomberg that competition is getting fierce on crude oil suppliers. And some of them are willing to sell their oil at the lowest possible price that you could imagine in turn for a bigger market share. Do you see oil going further down ?
I know either BB or FE covers crude oil , I wonder if we’re reaching any critical level on that. Well according to Peters theory , if oil is to dive further down so does S&P ??
And quick update on central banks monetary policy statements
RBA, RBNZ both see their currency as over valued and thinks more depreciation is needed to achieve balanced growth. AUD Unemployment figures have been pretty bad. Commodities price have been falling mostly due to increased supply than demand. Although dairy price has been positive, falling oil weak global outlook is going to weigh on headline inflation figures for a while - RBNZ.
As for BoC they have based their analysis based on the assumption oil price of about 60$ per barrel for the next 2 years. Although this is above current levels price seem likely to move back above 60$ in the medium term (what if it doesn’t ?!) they are trying to shift their reliance on oil exports to elsewhere and that will be strengthened by the combination of lower oil price, stronger US growth and a lower CAD. (Well FEs theory was right in a way, stronger US growth would be good for CAD) but it isn’t going to be until the second half of 2015 that we’ll see some minor improvements and 2 years at least for visible changes.
FOMC statement on the other hand was more on the positive note, labor market conditions have improved further with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. Inflation is below target mostly from falling energy prices. Long term inflation expectations however remained stable.
“The committee anticipates that even after employment and inflation are near mandate consistent levels economic conditions may for some time warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the committee views as normal in the longer run”
I’ve been thinking about the months’ end play. I guess I just kept forgetting about it, so I don’t have the numbers ran. So, let’s see if this will help. I have some charts to show you. They are all grouped into their own. 8 total. Maybe this might take a couple of posts. All of these are on the daily charts. From the beginning of the month. And I consider Jan 5th the first week of the month.
So, I don’t know what to think. The Swiss kinda messed things up this month. It’s hard to see who was predominant, and then to see what the players will want to take profit on.
I haven’t studied these charts yet. So, if anyone see’s anything of note, let me know.
I guess it kinda doesn’t matter, with only these last 2 days left. Well…then again maybe Friday could be a take profit day. (Squaring up day)
Peter…any thoughts?
BTW…I"m in on 2 trades now. Longer term. AUD/USD. NZD/USD. You know which way I’m going.
USD long.
How did you make those “fancy” looking graphs , I can’t see the % clearly. But it looks hi tech ! I was just looking at AUDUSD and NZDUSD, wouldn’t you have rather waited for some kind of correction ?
But do not overextend it.
