Hi guys.
Ok…let’s talk.
I have looked around. Checked all my charts and tables. And this is what I’m coming up with. A lot to talk about and think about. Some definite’s and some hunches.
First I want to deal with MY most probable. Which is the weakest.
[B]JPY[/B]
Reasons:
[B]-[/B]This is the first week across the board they have dropped much. It’s the first week against all the Comms. And the second week (generally speaking) against the Majors. Just look at the weekly charts…evident.
[B]-[/B]This is the first week I see them drop on my “deflator” chart. (I don’t expect you to understand that…and I don’t want to have to explain all what goes into that…complicated) (If you want, I can though)
Before this past week they have climbed up [B]8[/B] weeks in a row on the “Deflator” table.
[B]-[/B]First time they have dropped on the med. term and short term “trend comparison” table.
[B]-[/B]Last week looked like this, in the line-up. M = 7th T = 7th W =2nd Th = 8th F = 7th
[B]-[/B]Their trends (streaks) are lengthy.
[B]-[/B]On Friday they diverged from the USD. First time. (NFP)
So, that leads me to mention my Cons about them.
Their relationship to the USD. Will they continue to follow the USD? If USD goes up, will JPY?
[B]MAJORS vs. COMMS[/B]
[B]-[/B]Last week the Comms took the week. And it was the first time since the first week of the year. In between, the Comms were nothing but in the negative. All of them 3. And all three, last week, were + %'s.
[B]-[/B]And to reiterate, the Majors took the previous 3 weeks, by very much. BUT…previous to that the Comms took 4 weeks in a row. That was the end of the year weeks. So, my point is I’m thinking of the possibility of a trend starting, as opposed to just a retracement. Are the Comms on a roll?
[B]-[/B]Last week, Tuesday, the GDT numbers came out. +9.4%. That was a very big jump in the Dairy Price Index since a long while.
[B]News events[/B]
If you look at the calender you will see the [B]AUD[/B] have the most data/events coming out. Along with [B]CNY[/B]. So basically the AUD will be in the spotlight. And CNY will kick it all off, then JPY, then AUD.
So guys…there is nothing but facts for you, above.
Now, for my own take, ([B]which is purely speculation[/B]) on a perception of my numbers. I call it the “flip/flop” theory. (cause I see this so much)
Due to the placement of the AUD on my deflator table last week, they placed 7th (in front of JPY), I think they will boost up to the top, for the end numbers of this coming week.
Ok…bottom line. This is what I’m gonna be thinking this week. I gave you facts and hunches. And the smart thing to do next (for me) is to see some confirmation of movement, this coming week.
[B]-[/B]I will be looking for a weak JPY.
[B]-[/B]Will be looking for a domination of Majors vs. Comms.
[B]-[/B]Watching the still dominate strong USD.
[B]-[/B]The relationship of the Dollar to the JPY. Will they diverge?
[B]-[/B]Watching the GBP. Been strong the last 3 weeks. I kinda think they should digress some now. (just my thinking)
[B]-[/B]Eyeing the Commodities. Oil. And the effects it has on the CAD. Gold and the effects it has on the USD. Opposite. Also the Commodity Currencies. Cause maybe it was the whole Oil upward movement last week that boosted up the Comms to the top. And remembering that the Asian Currencies are overvalued, still, according to the big heads.
One thing FE…I’ve been realizing that you must have been learning lately lessons on the difference between a retracement and a reversal. (In fact, whoever [B]ISN’T[/B] must not be in the game)
But I want you to know that I do understand that. That’s why I feel it is important to track trends. Because the nature of a trend consists of much movement in a particular direction to begin with. So, things have already progressed much to a point in order to be called a trend, to start with. That is quite different than seeing some pips be boosted up for a short period of time. Days even.
So, for instance, when I look at what’s happening with the JPY, I don’t see a retracement, I see a reversal.
[B]Surely I can be wrong about that.[/B] But, that’s just what I see, by the numbers.
I do think about that FE, on a daily basis.
And another thing I’ve been learning much in my trading is this. I need to not only look at who’s strong, but who’s going weak also. I’m trying to not be so short sighted and see what everyone’s doing. All to come down to the point of taking the best trade. …OK…more like…not to trade across the board. That was a little extreme, I admit. But I’m trying a happy medium now. If someone is demonstrating strength, or weakness across the board, then I will still go with multiple trades, but being choosy about it. Like with the GBP this past week. Was so awesome to see them take out the USD, and JPY!
Let the games begin.
Talk to me!
Mike
