The JPY may just keep dropping if risk appetite keeps rising.
Hi Team,
I am very sorry for inactivity which is quite unusual from me. There are two reasons for that: 1. my computer is completely dead, I cannot even turn it on. I do not even go into details rather. I wrote a long post to it and deleted now, was too private to a public thread. 2. I have a lot of work to do which is of course now pâŚn in the a.s without a computer. Great timing.
Anyway, wanted to tell when I have the possibility and time I always read my emails and read the thread so keep coming those quality posts. As soon as everything is normal you will see more activity from me again.
FE
Hey guys!
On volume, Im still trying to wrap my head around the topic. Maybe I should do some reading on the subject. I find ETFs to be a great way to foresee a period of corrections, continuation or even a reversal and on top of all that a timing tool. However, theres been one trouble. However I look at it when I compare a chart of UUP and USD for instance, I get the exact same chart candle by candle literally. And Ive had trouble understanding how I can possibly use this as a leading indicator if the charts are exactly the same, no ones leading anyone here.
Well just this morning, I had a moment of clarity. Iâm slow. The volume ! I remember how Peter would always outline the volume on one of those ETF charts, he would see if thereâs a huge spike up in volume first and then examines if theres a follow through. Iâm finally picking up the pieces.
Hereâs an UUP and UUPx3 charts. Correct me if I had done anything wrong Peter.
Is this how you would generally analyze the volume ?
I picked up UUP and UUPx3 to if there was any difference, as I assumed for anyone whoâs greedy enough to invest in UUPx3 must have some sort of inside information otherwise theyâll lose 3x as much if things go sour. Well at least that was my logic. The volume on both these however do look about the same. After the last spike up in volume there hasnât been any follow through in fact the volume has decreased on both, and thats reflected on the chart as a pause. Is there going to be a pause or a correction on USD ?
Hey guys.
Mondayâs results.
NZD: +310///+.44
CAD: +192///+.19
JPY : +175///+.16
EUR: +10////+.04
CHF: -46////-.11
AUD: -136///-.16
USD: -162///-.24
GBP: -343///-.30
0100 GMT
Mike
Hey guys.
Well, since nobody has anything to sayâŚIâll proceed onto Tuesdayâs results. 
GBP: +624///+.53
NZD: +322///+.50
USD: +157///+.19
AUD: +54///+.16
EUR: +152///+.14
CHF: -11///// +0.0
JPY : -493///-.55
CAD: -708///-.82
0140 GMT
Mike
Hey guys,
Has anyone noticed S&P rally yesterday during NY session ? SPDR sector etfs ended the day with gains except for energy sector. And earnings report came out decent. Iâm wondering if S&P500 will be able to reach previous swing high of 2093.5 now its rallied above 2059.
Iâll take that as a yes Peter ?
Yes Rookie, Iâm long overnight, something I do not like to do but since it was a holiday I figured less likely to fall during Asia.
Usd/Jpy continues to suggest a risk on scenario.
I should add that Iâm also not keen on trading up from below previous high but Iâm trying to recover a specific loss on previous over night trade, so breaking two guidelines at one time - come to think of it actually three, this trade is a revenge trade - so letâs see how it goes.
Hey guys.
Good morning. :44:
Well, as I looked over that last post, I thought something didnât look right. There was a mistake. It wasnât my fault. It just was a wrong entry (from my broker) for the NZD. So I corrected it.
Makes me upset. I like to be accurate. Sorry.
Check it again.
Mike
Hi guys,
well I am still without my own computer and software but took the time to look at the thread. As I see no one is really trading or only a little activity out there.
Does someone look to enter any position based on the COT report? I am really interested to see the differences on all charts when I have my computer. I never had such a long time without charts so I want to see if major things happen or one week without looking at the action does not really change anything anyway. Of course I could check the internet chart but I am just too lazy to click through all charts on the internet in all TF, especially on the computer I currently use.
Anyway I am interested a lot about oil and on the development of gold, S&P and sugar. I will also check JPY as it wasnât that bad in the last weeks, so it is either a pause in the trends or the effects of QE might kick in.
Have a nice day guys,
FE
Hey FE!
Well, I can tell you a little about the JPY.
Their losing their butts. I seriously donât think itâs a retracement. Everyoneâs taking a good chunk out of them. OkâŚmaybe not CAD.
Hereâs the particulars.
MondayâJPY : +175 pips///+.16%
TuesdayâJPY : -493 pips///-.55%
Wednesday (today) their up slightly against all the Comms. But down against all the Majors.
So, there you have it. Maybe I have thrown in some bias against them (at the top), but in any case, there losing so far this week. And itâs not over yet. Weâll see what happens.
(I remember seeing (live) such a big chunk taking out of them, across the board. Something happened and it wasnât any economic indicators. And since then I thought they are definitely going down. But we have to see how the week ends)
âGBP is taking names lately. Strong.
Mike
FE,
The S&P and Gold are just hanging about, doing nothing, waiting for a push to go somewhere - hurry up with that computer 
Usd/Jpy is heading north without them, but even that may soon go into the doldrums without some action.
A while back FE discussed the possibility of shorting gold. I was wondering if anyone took his excellent advice?
My COT-based trade is to look for opportunities to sell Dollar.
I took the great advice but got stopped out at BE because of scaling in. Just joking around with talking about my own advice but need some laugh here too. I was too fast and wanted to win too large. I should have waited a longer time for a better point to scale in. No problem I got the great system to follow, I will give further good signals I hope! Unfortunately not now as I got a call that my computer cannot be repaired. Next Monday is the day to save my stuff from the ruined computer, buy maybe a new one and start installing those unlimited programs again. This is no excuse only the reason why the signals will come late.
Pay attention with selling the Dollar. I think we have to put a bit the extreme signals in COT into perspective. I observed this with RUB. It was on an extreme the whole time but did not turn. Why is that? Because in the observed period the RUB has never been near as weak as now so the very extreme reading did not bring any change in the trend. This is similar maybe with the USD now. It was just not strong in the last years so it shows an extreme reading now only because we are used to see a weak USD but if we looked at a longer term history maybe the nowaday extreme is not that extreme. I hope you get what I wanted to say. I did not check historical extreme net positions now but this is a possibility.
FE
Aha, at last the push may be on :
EU, Greece come to agreement in principle, meetings to continue: Source
Hey guys.
Wednesdayâs results.
USD: +263///+.39
EUR: +306///+.30
GBP: +376///+.28
CHF: +84 ///+.15
CAD: +27///+.08
NZD: -246///-.28
JPY : -383///-.41
AUD: -427///-.52
0100 GMT. Half hour after the AUD news. BAD.
Mike
Hi Team,
I know everyone is busy with everyday life but it is still sad to see the inactivity. I checked the thread and nothing is going on. Even Mike did not post his usual picture of the day so there is sort of like an emergency here as I see.
I thought of a good topic to discuss which is quite an important issue now. I do believe this can shake up everyone a bit to tell his opinion.
Although USD is weak lately with weak reports but for the discussion, I would like to suppose that US economy is strong, and [I]everyone should only consider a strong USD and a strong US economy[/I] as for the theoretical discussion a weak USD would end it all right away.
[I]So my discussion topic is how low a very strong US economy and a strong USD can push the commodities down?[/I]
I find this topic fascinating because when we are talking about the direction of the USD, we are usually only talk about US fundamentals or the fundamentals of the other currencies. However we shouldnt forget the issue of commodities. Now I think we come to a level slowly where it is important to discuss. Philip also mentioned a USD reversal which is still a tough case for me, at least from the perspective it was presented. For example: why should EURUSD reverse when EUR is so weak and USD is a lot stronger (I do not say anymore âso strongâ, rather I say a lot stronger).
However if we look at a USD reversal from a different way and ask ourself: âCommodities are getting so ridiculously cheap that slowly it does make sense to invest in them - should we buy them?â - well this is for me more of an argument for a USD reversal as for sure people are more and more interested to buy commodities if they get so cheap.
And this arises a very important question we have to consider: [B]Can the USD reverse in commodities and lose value but at the same time still make gain in currency pairs? Or if it loses ground vs. commodities, does it have to give up his gains in the currency markets too?[/B]
So guys here is something to think about in our intermarket analysis context.
FE
Hi guys.
Sorry so late. Wasnât feeling too good last night.
Thursdayâs results.
JPY : +451///+.54
GBP: +462///+.42
CAD: +202///+.30
EUR: +208///+.26
NZD: +60 ///+.18
AUD: -217///-.09
USD: -547///-.67
CHF: -619///-.95
Well I remember yesterday morning (for me) (London session beginning), I seen the JPY just take everyone out. I couldnât believe my eyes how many pips they were having on all. It was like a NFP. Around 100.
Then I found out it was a statement by someone from Japan about not doing any more QE, or that it wouldnât be such a good idea. (Something like that)
So the interesting thing is that everyone took back most of the pips by the end of the dayâŚEXCEPT the USD and the CHF, and AUD some. So, that kind of tells me of who is the more weaker [B]today[/B].
Very interesting.
AnywayâŚthatâs nice.
FEâŚyou bring up a good conversation.
To be honest, I donât have much of an opinion on that (off the top of my head). Iâm stuck, and concentrate on the currency relationships more than intermarket. I do watch Gold, and Oil some, but I canât make any correlations with the USD. (at some point in time I do want to correlate more of the markets)
Iâm sorry FE, I canât help much in that conversation.
We need Peter!
Mike
Well, finally just closed that long and got back the loss (bad terminology, back to where I was on Mon morning).
This is the thing about ârulesâ, sometimes you have to view them as guidelines, I stuck with the S&P basically because of the risk on factor - I did not choose to include Usd/Jpy simply because I intended that this trade may take a couple of days, yes a rising Usd/Jpy is synonymous with risk on, but choosing a single instrument over a couple of days presents lower risk that choosing two, namely USD and YEN.
That approach saved me a loss. (I find that Usd/Jpy presents lesser risks when Asia is asleep)