You should compare your last post to one of your posts from last summer. The development is huge, I would say you are making the fastest steps these days. I like your new writing style and these mixed charts are awesome. I like it actually more than those of your daily charts. These tell me real stories. Which site is this one? How exactly do I have to click to get them?
Those were my thoughts on you, without saying a word on your trading. Of course I cannot see how is that going. You have to judge that on your own.
So I think your next step on the long road should be, taking your emotions out a bit and concentrating more on candlesticks. I think you donāt like those technical analysis, but you should read very carefully when Rookie makes his analysis or when Peter and Philip explains what they are looking at on those charts. There is real experience behind them and you fill the remaining little whole to become a good trader in all fields.
I see you in the a.m.-s when you bring your coffee
I always wonder how you can put it all together the way you do. I am missing though a bit your great W/S trades and especially your W/S trades on S&P. Donāt you trade it lately? Or are you concentrating on something else?
I tell honostly, I started a scale in, and it is the risky CHF. NZD/CHF is my bet with little positions to the upside. We will see how it goes. I plan to hold it very very very long and expecting on continuous carry trade earnings.
I downloaded an MT4 now and wanted to see the monthly chart for it. What I have seen, I cannot believe it. It just does not seem to be realistic for me. Please check the attached chart, look at the candle in the middle and compare it to your MT4. It would be nice to give a feedback, and most likely as my chart is bad, someone could maybe post the right monthly chart.
Well the dovish minutes was something Iām looking for. It is dovish, it has concern about growth and inflation. Additionally, they discussed keeping rates steady for longer than expected. This is a good start fundamentally to start seeing a strong corrective move in the dollar later in 2015.
Well, as Iāve been gazing across the market, and in conjunction with the weeks numbers, this is what I see.
And itās been playing out so far through London session.
NZD.
Their going down.
They placed 1st, 1st, 3rd, this week so far.
And at the start of London they are tanking. Across the board.
So, Iām grabbing some pips. Going with NZD/USD south. I donāt know how far it will go today, but looks like itās heading towards the open (of the week). Iām up 19 so far. Iāll put in a stop loss. Trying to see where I should put it at now, before I leave for work. Donāt want to get too greedy. Butā¦you know how it is. Iāll check the S & R levels.
Peter talked about the Team some days ago. Well, we definitely work long enough to know how others react in some situations. One of my favorite parts in the thread how Peter discusses what is going to happen with S&P. However I know Peter has a lot of things to do and has little time to write some wisdom. So the question comes: how can I make Peter writing about S&P? Experience says if I make an analysis, Peter does take the time to react, even if he is busy because he is a very nice guy who definitely does not want to me to do stupid things. So because of protection and probability I think I have a good chance to get an answer. More than that, Rookie will jump in with some technical analysis and give another helping hand. After some charts, Philip and Mike might jump on board and BB maybe shoots some COT into it. This means there is a good chance to have a complete analysis within 12 hours!
Honostly I havent looked at S&P for a longer time in detail but now I have charts to look after (although no WS so without my favorite indicator I dont trade).
So I opened up the chart, saw S&P on a record high but no more. I opened then the sectors:
This shows me little movement in S&P but important is the riskier sectors a rising. This is bullish on the first view.
Russell is also on the rise which is bullish. The problem is the A/D Line is falling. That is definitely not bullish.
Looking at the chart action on S&P and on the ETF there seems to be indecision to me and at the moment I cannot trade one of my favorite instruments as I do not see any edge on the market. I am waiting though on your bets Team.
I havenāt traded the S&P this week, it just never got that momentum that I spoke of at last weekend.
My feeling is that the lack of momentum, reflected both in price and in volume of SPY is that the market is waiting on something in the risk sector.
Volumes are very low, the S&P is forming one of those hr1 triangles, price is being held up - TLT has formed lower highs over this past 3 days, but no new lows, just flat bottoms.
FEās sector analysis shows selling in defensive stocks, increased to 1.13% now at the close.
All these things seem to lead to the increased possibility ā¦ dare I say ā¦ breakout
Greece and Russia are probably the cause factors in the stall.
Gold made a half hearted attempt to show a rise, but it too is falling off, so the risk meters are trembling at present but showing signs of wanting to turn to the right to the green ārisk onā area.
Forgot to post TLT, compare the last 3 days with the last 3 days of SPY - the lower the bond price the more risk anticipation is favourable - not actually taking on risk but anticipating doing so.
I have been keeping an eye on S&P500 since the start of this week. And havenāt placed a single order due to lack of volume on SPY. I wonder if the gains in Industrial and Materials sectors did boost precious/industrial metals at least for a few points upwards, clearly as Peter noted thereās been not much of a volume on gold.
Going back to last sundays COT analysis. Silver did turn out to be a great setup. Weāve had palladium long and silver short on commodities and EUR/NZD/AUD buys/correction signals.
Palladium long, unfortunately didnāt work out all too well. Apparently palladium and platinum are less of a precious, more of an industrial metal although they are relatively rare compared to gold and silver. Its also used heavily in motor industry, biggest suppliers are South Africa and Russia. The past few decades correct me if Iām wrong both palladium and platinum has been on a downward spiral somewhat and havenāt had the privilege of receiving a decent boost regardless of their title āprecious metalā while gold and silver have stolen much of the attention.
I wonder if tracking motor industry funds will do the justice for trading palladium and platinum, what do guys think ? Iāve tried palladium ETF, the volume seemed incomplete compared to GLD and SLV. Could be that they arenāt as popular as gold & silver ?
Yes Rookie, although sometimes I tend to be a little cynical when volumes are low. MMās can get their orders filled a little easier.
Gold rose on the basis of the USDX reaction to the fomc, it continued to rise thereafter. But yesterday morning risk sentiment had taken over, it was rising against the trend of risk and against itās own trend set over the past month and rising WITH the USDX.
W/s , based on the USDX, started to fall from yesterday morning while gold continued to rise, finally giving a sell at 1214.40
I suppose this is the thing about divergence and itās power.
ā[B]NZD[/B] ā Will there be a correction the last week? Been so strong all month.
ā[B]USD[/B] ā This will be very interesting, coming up. Cause Iām thinking if this was all a correction so far, then this last week would be just awesome to make a come back and continue their bull run (if thatās the sentiment). The GBP has been stronger than them. But, on the other hand, if we see continued weakness in this last week, then just maybe they will be turning the bend and heading south.
ā[B]JPY[/B] --Been showing weakness. Even in the middle of the week, the word came out about not a good idea for QE, that boosted them so much. I watched it. Was impressive. But, the market just took profit and turned back around and continued on south.
ā[B]CAD[/B] --Sprang back to life in the beginning, then went back under. (Iām sure Oil is the cause) Soā¦will it continue?
ā[B]CHF[/B] --They dominated on Friday. (sorry FE!) So much profit was taken, but in the end they just are recoiling back so much. Friday it was the Swiss and the Aussie domination.
So, thatās some of the things that Iām seeing.
Talk to me.
Peterā¦see anything?
Mike
P.Sā¦I dug up last months totals. But theyāre in pips only. But at least we have some gauge.
Iāve updated my database and have nothing new to report. The Composite Index left extreme readings in case of [I]Gold[/I] & [I]Silver[/I].
[I]Copper[/I] remains a buy. Iām sitting the signal out since it would suggest going against the trend.
[I]Platinum[/I] and [I]Palladium[/I] are neutral.
[B]Rookie[/B], both PL and PA correlates with Gold. You could (I do) use divergences to find terrific setups.
The [I]Grain[/I] market is pretty boring. Although we have a Soybeans buy signal, the trend is bearish so we stay on the sidelines. (Not to mention the leader Wheat market just took a dive)
[I]Softs[/I] are neutral. Same goes for [I]Energies[/I].
VIX is bearish, which is supportive for the S&P bulls.
Dollar Index is bearish for quite a while now.
Thatās about it.
I closed my first trade of the year on Wednesday. I managed to make some profit by going short on Silver.
here is what I find interesting this weekend in the COT Report:
I do suggest to check BB, Philip and Rookie [B]Crude oil[/B]. There is something strange. Specs show a sell signal on the 6 COT Index, however the Commercials are usually on the other side with a buy signal. But this time Commercials are not at a buy signal, probably Retailers mess up the picture a bit. So the question is what is important the Specs sell signal or no signal from the Commercials?
[B]Wheat[/B] is not that clear but it might be a sell signal.
As BB said many times [B]Copper[/B] is giving a buy signal but who is brave enough to do it? I donĀ“t.
[B]Gold[/B] and [B]Silver[/B] can continue to fall.
[B]Platinum[/B] is likely to fall.
[B]Cocoa[/B]: this was not on the watchlist. Interesting item, shows maybe a buy signal? Check it guys and tell me what you think!
If Cocoa was interesting then [B]Cotton[/B] is also with a possible buy signal. I believe though that here first comes a correction and then a rally. If it was so, then it is just the great time to start watching it!
What I do not know is what is the correlation between softs. Some of them are more to a sell signal to me while others have more of a possibility to rise I think.
