Softs are not correlating with each other nor any other instrument. I’ve tried to find relationship between Softs and other futures in the past. I came to the conclusion that there’s none.
Hi Team,
we always read the news in the newspapers and they show and describe what is going on in the economies. We do that because it is easy and fast to do and also because it is the fastest way to get the news.
I had the chance to talk some retail workers in Switzerland yesterday. The thing is they are really desperate. Their products are just way more expensive in CHF than in the sorrunding EU countries where people pay with EUR. Maybe retail sales figures are not yet bad but they say they lost many customers. People near borders just go to Germany, France, Italy and Austria to buy stuff (good for the EUR of course). So what happens is that this might have long-term affects. There are Swiss people who say they help their own economy and buy in Switzerland. Besides these patriots many blame the SNB for what happened and they say it is their responsibility to solve the issue.
Many shops make a “Euro discount” which means if they get the products from EU countries, they just reduce prices as much as the current exchange rates lets this. Some however cannot afford this or do this because their products come from Asia and just cannot reduce prices. This is all important because if people buy abroad as they do now, this will start a downward spiral. It is far away at this point but if nothing happens it will become a danger.
I thought it is just interesting to share my own and real life experience because I find it just as good as the newspapers and maybe it is even more interesting to share.
We will see how the economy and CHF will respond for these current problems.
FE
I’ll make sure to take note of that 
Yeah FE .
I have read articles that raised concerns on Swiss economy, post EURCHF peg drop and CHF soaring because of it. And there’s been rumours going on that SNB might be looking to take actions against overvalued CHF. What you’re reporting onsite is what analysts had been concerned the most after SNB dropped EURCHF peg. With inflation far below target, LIBOR cash rate currently standing below 0. Strong CHF is going to impose negative implications for the Swiss economy in the long term should they fail to take timely action. We’ve become familiar with countries like Japan, Australia and the EU taking every possible measures to devalue their currencies. I think its no different for CHF now, post EURCHF depeg.
If you think about it, nothing much can be done now but to take action against overvalued CHF, LIBOR rate is already at -0.25* is alone won’t be enough with stalling inflation, and its dependence on EU. Not a good situation to be in with strong CHF. Strong currency is going to hinder economic and GDP growth and will have many more negative implications given the context of the current situation.
But of course, its still a guessing game for now. Unless its confirmed by longer term preferably daily charts, along with key economic datas falling behind target.
Hi Rookie,
as you know I dont trust analysts. Especially as many of them wants to suggest you to trade. This is the way it goes. What do you think why are there so many fundamental and technical analysts on broker websites? Their pure goal is to suggest you trading, no matter if their analysis are good or not. I do read a lot though and try to find those analysts which can be trusted. Hard to sort out.
So I like to believe more what I see/read with my own eyes and my experience what I discuss live with them.
I post a photo for everyone how the shops look like:
So my analysis says long-term CHF will go down.
We will see of course. Have a nice Sunday everyone,
FE
PS: sorry guys I do not know how to turn the pic here. I will not start now to turn the original. You get the point anyway.
Hey guys. I’ve got nothing to report.
As far as COT report goes it seems to be, that correction phase for AUD, NZD, CAD and EUR might be finally coming to an end. We’ll have to see what goes on from here. GBP has been stealing pips lately, although I’m bullish on dollar. I’ll keep pound on my radar.
And here’s how UUP ended the week. Lack of volume.
Hey guys.
Man!! It just hit me that what I called for, and was thinking could happen, did happen. BUT…it was a week later. I remember last weekend that I was wrong about the flow of things. Sure. Happens. But I recall all what I said and revisited my write up. This was on the 8th of this month. 2 weeks ago.
[/Due to the placement of the AUD on my deflator table last week, they placed 7th (in front of JPY), I think they will boost up to the top, for the end numbers of this coming week.QUOTE]
[QUOTE]I will be looking for a weak JPY.
[]Watching the GBP. Been strong the last 3 weeks. I kinda think they should digress some now. (just my thinking)/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]]And to reiterate, the Majors took the previous 3 weeks, by very much. BUT…previous to that the Comms took 4 weeks in a row. That was the end of the year weeks. So, my point is I’m thinking of the possibility of a trend starting, as opposed to just a retracement. Are the Comms on a roll?
I don’t know. I’m always amazed when I end up becoming right. But what gets me is that most of everything that I was thinking that weekend DID happen…but…happened one weak later, than I thought.
At least I’m somewhat in touch with what the market is doing.
It’s a scary thing to think you know something, and be right about the market.
So, all I’ll take away from that is that I’m, in some degree, in tune with the market. Just off with the timing.
I also realize the fact that the minute I think I know what will happen in the market, is the day that I will fall.
Mike
Hey guys.
So what’s gonna happen this week?
These are my thoughts.
Due to you guys reminding me of my thinking of the CHF. Last Friday was a take profit day, something had to burst, and it did. So, now what? Is this retrace over with? I will be watching to see if the CHF nose dives again. Seems like such a good time to get in, after Friday’s bloodbath. I will be watching for a confirmation for that scenario.
This is the last week of the month. (And to remind you guys that I did put out there the numbers already, nobody responded??? ) And we have months end play coming. Are we learning anything from the past?
I should be trying to find out when things start moving, is it Wednesday? Or starts on Monday?
We’ve been doing this every month and should be making note of what happens every month end week.
I should be anyway.
I will make this a topic to explore this week guys.
More to come with that.
USD. I will be curious to see if they will come charging back this week, just to even out the score some.
Will the Comms completely take over? Will be watching the price of Oil. And Gold.
JPY. Well, I don’t know. They are sliding. And it’s interesting if they will continue to slide WITH (IF) the USD does. That relationship I will watch, in conjunction with the aggregate.
I got to run.
Talk to you guys later.
Mike
Mike, you have described the difference in trading and analysis, and it can be an extremely frustrating experience.
Many time I have got my analysis correct and lose money simply because my trade timing was off.
FE, in Switzerland you have experienced the dilemma that that country’s central bank finds itself in.
The ECB are extremely happy with the current exchange rate between EUR and CHF and GBP.
I am currently running a test with a filter for willspread, I am trying to see if that indicator can help with trade timing and the filter to help with the TA part, where to set the SL and Take Profit.
Still very early days, I spoke on Thursday of gold and the divergence that existed there.
Below is Thursday’s gold chart, times are GMT, the dotted vertical line is midnight, the highest high is midday HR1, so price just before New York open began to get in sync with all the trends in my post.
The little pink area at the right is the filter which is noting an area of interest technically. When I go out to a hr4 chart I can see why the indi painted the area.
Crucially, w/s (on the usdx) was giving a sell signal as price was leaving this area.
Here is Gold now including the next day - Friday at close. The filter had already painted the area at the bottom as of TA interest, so an obvious target. There was also a second area painted on Friday as an area for a sell, again as confirmation with ws.
As I have said, it is early days, the filter is helping identify the TA better than my eye can. Will report later.
BTW we got that breakout the next day. Interesting chart on the S&P and where the buying interest was.
W/s on the 10yr, again with the filter, the buy signal with price coming from the area of interest.
No obvious target drawn since it’s new ground.
[B]Peter[/B], do you use the crossing of the 0 line as a signal? I might be wrong, but the signals are seem to be a little late most of the time. Also, which broker’s MT4 are you using for your analysis?
Hi BB, there are a number of ways of taking the signal.
The important thing for me is to remember the purpose, it’s showing the momentum on the supporting market, it’s measuring risk momentum, so I use the 10yr on S&P.
If I were to use USD/JPY I would therefore expect something similar, I prefer the 10yr because there is no secondary aspect, i.e. the economics of Japan.
The crossing of the zero line is often a point at which I can add if w/s is coming from an extreme, meaning momentum is already in action.
The 50sma acts only as a reference, a guide on hr1.
I can also just move down to a 15min and use the crossing there, the shorter time frame will show the momentum earlier.
Below the same chart on 15 min, I have included USD/JPY as a support.
I use MT4 as provided by Oanda because they include the bonds, Forex Ltd because they are on GMT and have the USDX.
Bottom is USD/JPY
The important thing for me is not the indicator or the filter.
What’s important for me is that I determine a method of trading my own fundamental analysis as outlined in my posting re Gold and S&P on Thursday evening. My overriding approach is based on what I perceive to be the risk mind of all market participants.
As Mike has pointed out, getting this correct and trading it are two very different animals.
And just on a little side note, I haven’t used USD/JPY in a while, after much forward testing I concluded that the 10yr is much more accurate in detail in measuring risk momentum.
If you look at the last 5 candles on the above chart, then compare how w/s on the 10yr showed that momentum is lost, the usd/jpy didn’t reflect this. The 10yr was reflecting the fact that it was close to the close of the week.
And finally, why it is that I use the USDX and 10yr as support.
Below 2 charts, one of the S&P the other of the Dow both hr1 and showing Friday’s action.
The Dow decided to join in on the risk on fervour, crossover time both charts was the same.
See how it is possible to link the USDX and 10yr into the entire risk momentum.
First chart, S&P hr1 ForexLtd with USDX:
DJIA same as S&P:
You hit the nail in the head Mike ! We’ve come far, at least far in a sense that we are intune with the market to certain degree. And whats left for us now is to get the timing right at least more than half the time. And you’re ready to go live 
Hey Team.
Well, after much contemplation, for the months end play, I just haven’t been able to come up with any back testing. See, if I look at the end of Jan (which I did) that was just such a messed up month due to the CHF shenanigans. And then back to Dec, well that was month and years end. So I figure I will start doing some forward testing, here, with you guys. I will document the before and after play every month. And I prefer to be using the %'s. So I will start with the Feb before figures. We’ll see how it progresses.
//////WEEK 1/////WEEK 2//WEEK 3//TOTALS
NZD///+7.99///+6.61///+7.31////+21.91
GBP///+6.98///+5.1///// -.51//////+11.51
AUD///+1.1//// -.57//////+7.97////+8.5
CAD///+9.8////+1.71//// -5.63////+5.88
EUR/// -1.4////+1.22///// -1.02//// -1.2
USD/// -3.14/// -.43////// -.07///// -3.64
JPY /// -14.9/// -.41////// -2.57//// -17.88
CHF/// -7.86//// -7.17//// -5.42//// -20.45
These are complete % totals. This is a better gauge than averaging out. It’s just a comparison. I look at them to get a better sense of how much.
NOTES :
COMMS vs. MAJORS—
WEEK 1 ----COMMS + 18.89%
WEEK 2 ----COMMS + 4.33%
WEEK 3 ----COMMS + 9.65%
All that is what I gave you this past weekend. And let’s look at it.
First off…I ranked the currencies as who is the stronger to weaker according to the END totals.
We can see their progression.
Take a look and tell me what you see.
I see the USD climbing.
I see the NZD just too strong.
CAD is just straight down.
COMMS have dominated. Let’s look at the field split into the 2 groups.
Week 1 we had CAD as boss, with NZD very strong and AUD in the positive.
Week 2 NZD on top, with positive CAD. BUT the CHF weakened the Majors mostly.
Week 3 both NZD and AUD boss with a weak CHF again.
I just like to get a gauge to see a tilt somewhere. Surely the money has been finding the Comms one way or the other. And coming into the last week, in which there is a good chance to see a balancing out, I would think that the Majors should have the tilt, whether one or a couple of them to dominate.
What do you guys think?
Any clues in the other markets?
Talk to me?
Mike
BTW…I’m going in with the NZD/USD short this week.
Hi Mike,
well all I see that my NZD/CHF setup looks good as your stats show it is the strongest vs. the weakest which is normally a good sign.
So there is a little mistake in your post, with “USD/NZD short”. I do not know what you mean short here as the pair is actually NZD/USD.
As Oil goes down lately, so does CAD (check the charts) and Gold with I guess AUD. It will be questionable if NZD can hold itself.
FE
The Kiwi has found a good support on the 0.7500 level and it could bounce back up from there.
Hi Peter,
here is a homework for you, or a potential volume analysis for Rookie.
I checked S&P and see some strength in the last hours. Then I checked the sectors and and all they shout at me at the moment is to either look for shorting or sit aside.
There is one thing though I am not sure on the sectors when I click on the daily distribution. Does it show the action of the last 24 hours or the action from NY open? In the later case it would only be a couple of hours at this very moment.
Thanks,
FE