Hi Guys,
DAX opened with an up gap, sustained it and moved forward. Short after my system gave a buy signal. I am in with a SL and good R:R. We will see. Share your opinion and I wish everyone a nice week.
Interesting discussion between Peter and Philip. I agree with Philip says, but not ready to buy. Many EUR charts do not confirm just yet for me to buy EUR, but like Philip says, I also do not want to sell it.
FE
Long again on Eur/Usd - at this morning’s mid Asian and yesterday’s London’s low (1.0717) - so Asian Traders, please protect that level tonight.
Still waiting on the new S&P high - patience they tell me is a virtue.
FE, looks like the Dax has found some buyers - see what it did when it found it’s new high, new high brought lots of new buys, those who had been building sold to them, wonder now will those same guys start re-building - who knows.
Hi Peter,
I got out twice just above BE. It is very choppy, for me there is no clear trend. I want to protect my capital so I take here little risk. It is of course also a disadvantage but still.
BTW I was thinking a lot on you today when I was watching the indeces. I thought: “Peter has a good day at least”. The last hours weren´t that good for you but you can´t complain! My DAX choice was not the right one, S&P would have been better. However if we are honost, Nikkei took the gold medal 
Good night,
FE
Hi FE,
Yep, the Nikkei was not hesitant it looking for it’s new high, a simple trade of just buy and hold without any additions I suppose would have been the way.
I see the Asian Traders defended me to the pip on Eur/Usd, now the big question is what are the Europeans going to do, I’ll just have to wait and see…
Update:
The best the London traders managed was to take the trade to +80 pips, since I’m trying to get onto the Euro I did not exit, I have a specific level to watch so it means I can now set a close SL, will watch to see if NY buys at 1.0720
And final update at London close.
See how my entry level was ‘defended’ all day, this is probably bad news for my plan to get a reasonable position going, that level will become more attractive for any stop hunting that may happen, now I have to widen the SL to equal the last long scalp which will take me out at 1.0647 - it’s not easy position building at transition time, and it sure takes patience.
On the S&P , still just waiting for the new high… then exit.
Hi Peter,
as we always talking about following the trends, don´t you think it would be a lot easier and less stress to wait until the transition is over and just join when the trend is established?
I wish you good trade with S&P, you have great patience in these tough times.
FE
Hi FE,
Yeah, two trades, one is following the trend - i.e. S&P long, near time for the new high now.
The Eur/Usd - I chose to chronicle that one because I could see how it was going to play out using the session levels, the trade is currently plus 100 pips so will take same profit and now move SL to B/E.
I mentioned the tight SL because I know that many guys would do that, mm’s know it too, that’s why I also mentioned anticipating a run and widening the SL to at least a previous win level - that way a person is still using the market’s money.
When all that is played out then it’s time for b/e and profits.
Must say it all played out almost as if I’d scripted it
Great news Peter,
congratulations on your great analysis. I am also in index, today the long side but chose the Nikkei to go with. My entry was quite ok but there is not movement since many hours.
I guess you do not trade tomorrow so I wish you a happy weekend,
FE
Exited Eur/Usd at London open this morning - at the round number - end of week, session opening and round number usually mean profits taken, next week new times, new outlook - Greece still holding the key on Euro, no new news will mean creep up, good news will mean jump up and bad news will mean cliff fall.
The thread is quiet, but one final little note on Euro - I was trading the anticipation of a deal on Greece, I’m happy to have exited, that anticipation has considerably lowered this evening in Riga.
The Greek PM will talk thing up over the weekend, Ms Merkel may also put a positive spin, but reality is things may go to the wire - markets dislike uncertainty so I’ll not jump into any Euro trade on Monday.
Hi Peter,
I do not know what you feel about this situation but I am quite fed up with it. I rather see any kind of decision there than this postponing of the decision the whole time. They should stay and do the work or byebye.
What is your thinking on stocks for next week?
FE
Yes, that’s politicians - good at talking, maybe not so good at getting things done.
Decision time for me on the S&P on Monday, whilst there was a good probability of the new high the only doubt was what would be the cause of the rise.
It came on the back of earnings which is positive, had it merely been on sentiment then I would have immediately exited on Monday.
Mornin’ fellas! :44:
The database is updated, so here are the results.
Wheat
I mentioned Wheat last week as a possible long opportunity. The signal just got stronger, the CI (Composite Index) is currently 1% which is as bullish as it gets.
I did not go long during the week, because I simply wanted to get in at a better price.
Looking at the H4 chart, I think I’ll go long on the market’s open.
Crude Oil
We are not at an extreme yet, although I’ll pay close attention to the instrument. One would expect a bullish CI signal, but at the moment, it certainly seems like that we’ll be fed with a bearish one. CI is currently at 74%.
Hi BB,
happy to see your analysis, also wanted to share what I found. First on your Sugar trade: as we are a team I thought it is important to remind you that you only wanted to trade in the direction of the main trend. With the sugar trade you would go exactly against the main trend. Do not forget that.
On the other hand you analysed Crude Oil. Exactly that is the commodity I found interesting. It reached a 100% 6 months COT Index extreme which is a sell signal. More than that, the long-term trend is also bearish so this signal looks valid.
We can wait for Rookie and Philip if they make their analysis and maybe share their views on Crude oil.
Have a nice weekend everyone,
FE
I think you mean Wheat instead of Sugar. Yep, that trade goes against the current bearish trend, but as I said before, Grains (especially Wheat and Corn) are extremely responsive to Commercial extremes and therefore are exceptions of my counter-trend rule.
About WTI, I’ll wait for a 3 years extreme before shorting.
Hi BB,
yes, I mean Wheat. Ok, then please update us how your Wheat trade is in case you enter the market. I am interested for that counter trend trade but at the same time strong singal. We will see how it develops itself.
Have a nice Sunday,
FE
Hey guys, BB
I’ve been looking at wheat since last week thought it would shoot up but it didn’t buyers were in lack of some upward momentum there. From a technical point of view its oversold, couple that up with PA daily is usually a good indication to place the bet. Good thing that I stopped by the thread, I was almost going to mark that as a sell, if it was going to break down.
There’s a buy signal on corn as well however the price just broke down as of friday close what do you say about that ? a better price to long or ?
Hi Rookie,
nice charts. On the other side, what do you mean when you say: “Good thing that I stopped by the thread…?” Actually you should be here on a daily basis!
So, my problem is that most setups (corn and wheat) are against the main trend. The better setup is however Wheat, like BB pointed out it is on a net position extreme. Maybe we could all watch this “live” and you can share with us when you get a buy signal on the daily. We can then decide if we take action or not.
Have a great week everyone,
FE
Hi Peter,
congratulations on your S&P new high, you were very patient and made a nice gain. How did you decide: did you take partial profits or you have your trades still open?
Good trading for you further on with it,
FE
Okay, I just got murdered on my long position Well, hopefully I’ll have better luck next time!
