My friend stick to your trading plan and goal for this year you shared with us in the beginning of the year: “I only trade to the direction of the main trend.”
Crude looks better and it is the main trend. Maybe Gold and Silver did not let Crude to fall today. We will see how it continues.
FE
Hi FE,
I stuck with the original plan - closed the trade after the new high, I’d expect some sort of pull back now, so maybe long again later.
Now flat, but there has been a positive development on Greece. It seems that your thread was read by the PM and he agreed with your analysis, the talking team have been reshuffled, the new lead negotiator commands a certain respect from creditors - his name is Euclid Tsakalotos.
I should have posted the reasoning for my exit plan - posted this back in mid April, there comes a time to take profits.
Think buying AUD against USD or JPY could be a decent trade for the day. I’ll see how things run from London open.
Hey guys.
We have the end of month play upon us. And this is what I think.
[B]CAD[/B]
They have/are on top this month. They are very strong. And I think for many reasons. First of all they are the substitute for the dropping USD. Oil price has been climbing. They have had some really good fundamental economic data come out lately (this month).
I’ve been seeing nothing but a pile on lately with them.
So, now, we have the end of the month. Thursday is technically the last day. So, I think that there will be some profit taking coming soon. Yesterday they were the second top currency, after the AUD. It was a Comm day. So, I just now (hour or two after London open) took a look at what has been happening. And it looks like maybe it might be time for the profit taking and CAD sell off. And the Oil price has dropped some also.
I’ve been waiting for this. Even though it’s not in my plan to go against the trend, I think this is a good opportunity. Will be very conservative about it.
What do you guys think?
Agree or not.
Mike
Hi Mike,
unfortunately I do not know what is the Comm and Major situation as you do not post it anymore 
Besides that, I agree but for another reason: my analysis say oil will drop and if that is the case CAD should drop with it.
Tell us how your trade went,
FE
Well, I’m in.
Since the NZD is the only currency I have that the CAD is not trending high against, I will go north with the NZD on them. Take a look. This is the daily time frame.
That will be for this week only.
Mike
I had to comment on that because we finally agree on something! this calls for a celebration 
I see blockbuster USDCAD long and NZDUSD short. It is not quite there yet but we could be as close as a week or two away!
Check it out!
and
Let’s first say that fundamentally, USD is stronger than both NZD and CAD. When we translate this to a chart, it means we expect NZDUSD to reach its lowest low or make a new one. As for CAD we expect to reach that high or make a new high. We cannot locate where exactly that new high/low will end using fundamentalls alone. But at least fundamentals give us direction.
Now in those two charts the first thing I want you to see is that yellow line has crossed below the blue line (NZDUSD) or in the case of USDCAD above the blue line. Technicals and fundamentals are lined up.
You see the pink trendlines on the chart and RSI of both pairs. These showed us that we are on the verge of a correction, and surely enough we are now on that phase of correction.
We should not let the media, center banks or anyone else fool us. The US is only in a point of correction and not reversal. Fundamentally, US will raise rates first so money will flow there more and Dollars will rise.
If you applied these settings to GBPUSD, EURUSD and others, you will see a similar patter developing.
What sets NZD and CAD apart is that their stochastic is an extreme area, meaning the correction is nearing its end and the trend is preparing to resume. However we are not just there yet. In USDCAD the horizontal line is the area where I expect to see the trend continuation upwards. This is the current value of the 50 weekly EMA. Now if price ignores that line and continues downwards, we wait until price touches the black lines before thinking about buying. But I’m fairly confident of this area to be honest.
The signal on NZDUSD is even stronger however. The blue box area is where I expect we see a start of the trend continuation in favor of the dollar.
The month of April has not been good for me, and that is normal because I’m one of the Dollar bulls. But we are getting really close now, and its about pulling the trigger at the right time for me.
I hope the charts and ideas are clear.
Well, I still like the trade but I should have stick to my plan. It’s good to be humbled once in a while
Hi Philip,
thanks for the great analysis with the many charts! Great stuff. Can you share also your thoughts about Crude?
FE
Wheat maybe finally finding support at around 4.71 on daily.
Beware of RBNZ monetary policy meeting Mike,
While I don’t expect them cutting rates anytime soon, event risks should always be avoided at best. We can never be sure about the reaction its only a guessing game.
Besides oil, I want to add if you followed last few monetary policy statements you wouldn’t want to sell CAD. I’m no longer as bullish as I was as regards to USD. Lately theres been nothing but disappointing data one after another. I’ll be paying close attention how yoy GDP turns out tonight. CAD, NZD, GBP has already turned around on daily we shouldn’t take these turnarounds lightly I want to see how market will react to Fed meeting also.
And lets not get carried away with AUD strength just yet guys. I’ve read their last statement, upon reading the whole thing I wanted to sell AUD definitely not as optimistic as CAD, Steven still wants AUD lower and the non mining sectors isn’t picking up anytime soon add up slowdown in Chinese property market , the recent AUD strength could be due to few factors ; 1.PBC easing, 2. there’s no apparent hint if RBA will cut rate furthermore, 3. well majors haven’t been competent enough, they’ve tried especially GBP despite election uncertainties but has anyone looked over at that GDP number that was disappointing I’m looking to sell pound against NZD once RBNZ is over with its policy meeting. To wrap things up in my view fundamentally we’re still in a big chaos. There’s no apparent strong currency. Its like everyones been trying to give it a shot except for yen and USD but keep falling short and that reflects the underlying fundamental reasonings.
Hi Rookie,
I have seen exactly the same on the daily chart. Will be interesting to observe wheat in the next COT Report.
That is exactly why fundamental analysis is so dangerous. I read Philip´s analysis and makes sense. I read yours about the USD and makes also sense. Problem is that both of you are talking about the exact opposite thing. Charts don´t lie and that is why technicals are good IMO.
I am completely with you though that it is stil a huge chaos. I still prefer NZD if I have to choose.
FE
well, well, well. This was probably the nail in the coffin. Its very likely we won’t see a rate hike in June. The low growth and the lack of inflation is the main reason for that. The market is now pricing that in. This is the multi-month fall I referred to earlier this year, that so many things lined up for a correction in the dollar to start taking place. The trend technically needed that correction. And fundamentally the US needed that as well. It is clear that the strong dollar had a strong impact on weak earnings, and weak inflation. Falling dollar prices will help that. Lets not forget that US GDP usually picks up in the third quarter.
So since we as a team figured out the truth about the dollar long before the market did (because we are awesome). Our question now should be: Will the FED raise rates at all in September or December?
That question is important because there are two narratives on the chart, I shared one of them which tells the story of a rate hike in September. But what if that doesn’t happen?
So now the purple line is the area I marked yesterday for USDCAD. There is a good chance we crash through that level and all the way down to the blue line, the very strong 1.12 area of you guys remember it. This applies on many other pairs as well, so the fundamental bias is the one that will guide us to the right timing.
FE you asked about oil. I was very clear on a buy in March, that was my Gann analysis way back in 2014. That prediction was a massive success as Oil based on March 18. If you follow the system I share on another thread, you would have still been long WTI since March 30 at a price of $48. To me Oil is actually one of the smoothest markets to trade contrary to what other traders say about it.
However I also said I prefer to sell oil than buy it. When do I sell it, exactly when I think its time to buy the Dollar 
Here’s a chart:
The blue box is where I think will be a good area to sell. Its important to note that I don’t automatically sell at these areas. Its only that once price reaches those areas, I move to the 4HR and 1 HR in search of sell opportunities.
If you still wanna go long WTI, the pattern I shared on another thread is developing currently on the 1 hour chart.
Hmm, I see the Fed are still reading this thread also, they have chosen ‘transitory’ as their wording where we used ‘transition’.
Btw, also see the market likes the new Greek set up, has been some Euro buying since that announcement (over 280 pips) - did any you guys trade some of it?
Hi Peter,
can you make a very short conclusion of FED? I was busy at the time could not see any of it. I just need to know what is with rate hike. September or later?
Yeah, you discussed transition often so if they said it I clap my hands for you.
I did not trade EUR for a long time in any direction, your analysis were always great and gave me the knowledge that EUR is tough to trade. However if trends develop then I will jump in long. I wait a bit.
Take care,
FE
I didn’t bother to read the report - it’s old news, just the headline about how they view the economic climate as transitory.
Philip asked back some time ago about market sentiment, I said there was ‘fear’ (a better word would have been alarm) that the Fed would push on with rate rise regardless, this alarm impacted negatively on the S&P and positively on USD.
In economics numbers trump words, Retail Sales were the clincher, the alarm dissipated.
Price trends are driven by fundamental trends, I mentioned how it was possible to get a sense of the then upcoming Retail Sales from the trend in numbers associated with the US economy, Imports/exports etc.
So the question regarding rates and months is not in market thinking right now, it has similar meaning to the speculation surrounding UK interest rates that arose last year.
This is the reason that I could wait for a new S&P high and trade accordingly, also the reason that I have been short on all USD trades.
I have more recently been buying Euro simply because the EZ numbers say so, the only risk with this one is Greece, any lowering of that risk will impact heavily on Eur/Usd to the upside as it did this week.
So no great insight on my part in using ‘transition’ - it was just a word to describe the market.
Well, there has been a further 150 pips today - entry point this morning was mid Asian again - 1.1107 (some people like the break of the Asian high especially if the session range was reasonable tight)
Will exit now since it’s end of week with new month.
Since I posted about Euclid Tsakalotos 3 days ago Eur/Usd has gained around 350 pips.
On the S&P the pull back is now in progress, next week will bring it’s own opportunities, explained my thinking on this already.
Will take a little break from the thread for a while - busy busy
I took a look at Philip’s thread in which he shares with us his trading strategy. It looks really promising, and I thought I’ll experiment with the method and try to combine it with the COT report to find low-risk entry opportunities. I have some stuff to do, but I’ll come back later and elaborate.
Hi BB,
your saying is right, Philip put a lot of effort in his thread, there is a reason for the high speed movement there. I think Philip and rookie would both be happy (just like myself) if you can make a combination of that system and the COT report. Everyone likes to see low-risk entry opportunities.
Have a nice weekend everyone,
FE
