And we’ve got plenty of data coming up today and tomorrow that should drive some move for EUR.
Peter, nice job on the entry. I would have went long on the break above and SL a good 20pips or much lower from 1.1100. Now I see how you get that SLs placed not too far from the entry :45:
Peter, I do have a vague idea (I’m guessing its mostly fear, or exposure to Greek debt direct or indirect) on how Greece crisis (let’s call it that way I have no better word) is going to leave a negative impact on S&P or any stock market for that matter, but can you walk me through the logic behind all of this ?
Rookie, logic has gone away in all of this, everything is knee jerk - the Asian stock markets have re-bounded today, so let’s see the S&P later, it will decide the direction of the close for the European stock markets.
I anticipate a return to some sense today, the Greek economy is not so important in terms of size (though sadly for it’s people it is extremely important) - so let’s see what happens.
The thing is we think that a default means the Greek economy is gone. I don’t really think so, over the long run this will be better for Greece. Iceland did something similar back in 2008 and they are doing well now.
The EU is the one that should be concerned because if Greece does exit, Spain will beyond any doubt follow. Especially if the EU does not change its attitude in those negotiations, it is not the one in the stronger position. Greece will default and just borrow money from China’s development bank.
Now if Spain follows, pressure will grow in Portugal and Italy (as well as Scotland with the UK). Now those, especially Italy, have a higher chance of being accommodated. But if they leave, why would France stay? all of a sudden the Eurozone is basically Germany.
All of this for Austerity measures. Let’s not forget the strongest economy in Europe is the one that didn’t implement austerity measures. Austerity is not about saving the economy, its about saving banks. So really Germany has a choice of saving the Eurozone or the banks.
Yeah, Iceland have their capital controls, not so nice for global trade, still have their massive debt, no one knows how they will ever sort that one out.
Speaking of that word, I feel it’s breath, it’s far from nice but somehow we got on with work and turned things around - has austerity helped? - tough question, different people, different answers.
Banks are ok on Greece, it’s taxpayers money that is being looked for now, foreign banks down to 1%.
This is now down to a lot of ego, which is difficult to watch since so many people’s lives are affected, just ordinary people trying to make a living and who have very little contact with international politics/economics - at least they now get an opportunity to have a say.
Yeah, I just ran a little indie on the 30min spx, it highlights s/r horizontals, it also highlights the left area that you have marked, the area that looks like a large M (2075)
And what does price go and do today - it breaks right up through that area heading for the next area up (2085) - apparently on the basis of the latest Greek letter and the possibility of a late deal (who’d believe that).
So the little indie repaints, it is now ignoring the lower M, it’s now flagging the M at 2085 as resistance, it has also spotted the double bottom down at 2054 as support
Eur/Usd now back down to the level that I missed on Monday ( Mid Asian 1055), suspect some support here, small scalp down to that level just exited, left third on looking for 1030 overnight, will exit that if 1065 comes first.
Final little thought, wonder will that gap on the left of the spx chart get filled over the next days, was almost filled but not quite, also wonder will Usd/Jpy get back to 123.80
I had mentioned that spx was overreacting or knee jerking and that it would settle down, this was just sentiment, or maybe the feeling that I have seen all this before, but there was no TA to show this.
Your chart has caused me a little look back to see if there were any possible TA to reflect this feeling.
This is all I could come up with, hindsight stuff so maybe not so inspiring, but it’s there nonetheless.
Hey Rookie, I’m preparing to exit my position soon, may be by the close of the current four-hour candle. I’m done 30 pips as things stand.
Its largely down to luck now. If the NFP numbers come good, I’ll likely close my loser for a profit. If however they come out bad, I’m likely to lose much more than the thirty pips I’m currently losing.
The area that Peter was mentioning 1.1100 is holding still now as a resistance previous support. Its tempting to go long on the break above, but considering that its a friday I’m assuming there won’t be much happening. SPX went down a bit but is gaining few points back is lacking upward momentum. I was wondering Peter, if selling in Shanghai composite is going to have any major effect on SPX ?
Phil,
I’m contemplating if I should place some buy orders on USDJPY. You can certainly get back in later on Monday.
All currencies are viciously down against the Yen. Oil is down more than 2%. Gold is down more than 2%. The S&P is down more than 1%. Silver is down 6%.
I mean can we describe today’s movements in any other term than “crisis”?
Indeed, I was thinking the same thing. I was experimenting with my CTSI indicator for a while and noticed that whenever the Yen starts to rally, almost every major currency starts to fall.
Guys, remember I spoke about Euclid Tsakalotos some time ago, well it seems he is the root cause of the turnaround in the S&P and Eur/Usd
One of the 18 Fin ministers has just described him as “impressive” which is something of a surprise (particularly given the minister who so described him) , apparently the Greeks will look for number three bailout through the ESM.
Likely we will hear more from Mr Tsakalotos tomorrow, the prospects of a deal have increased slightly this evening.
I had been looking to buy EUR, but for the past few days or week the market have been shaky. I’m wondering how gold is down when yen is up ? thought it was bought against risk as yen. Does it mean the situation not as bad as people make it out to be ?
I can be difficult to apply logic in a see saw of risk that is Greece, hence usually simpler just to day trade if on the Euro, example I’ve gone long at Asian mid, if I get 40 -50 pips I’ll take them, if negative around 30 I’ll exit.
The market is saying to buy Yen when risk is off, so usually better just to go along with it. Suspect gold off colour with the commodities, you know that story about throwing out the baby with the water.
Btw, see Bloomberg quoting Syriza spokesperson as saying they will seek bailout under ESM - (BP is streets ahead :))
