COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment

Yeah, interesting alright. (JPY)
But, I can tell you that the USD is the one that mostly correlates with the Yen.
You can’t draw any definite lines though.
They remind me of the EUR and CHF.
Believe me, I see the line-ups, (how they all compare).
Other than a major risk off situation (the YEN is normally pared with the CHF), the USD is generally somewhere close by to the JPY.

So, keep in mind the USD when looking at the JPY. I think the USD is tied more closely to them than any other one.
And again, this is in the context of how they all relate to one another. The aggregate.

Mike

Yes Mike,

Usd/Jpy this morning in down mode, couple that with Eur/Gbp in up mode - gives a little confidence in the buy on Eur/Usd in that the others are suggesting some USD selling and some EUR buying right now.

Yet another dovish tone from FOMC.
AUD employment numbers came out better than expected. NZD buying is happening. I think its about time com dolls rebound. AUDJPY has a lot to catch up from recent downfall compared to AUDUSD but it looks tricky with Greece.

Whats your plan Mike ?
I’m looking at NZDUSD long.


Update: I’m long on NZDUSD SL is a lot wider than I would normally do.

Hey Rookie…
I just finished up tallying stuff up, and checked the thread now. And it’s funny you asked what I think.
Cause I placed only one more. NZD/USD going short. At .67310 . Looking for 100 pips, which will take it down to the support level. And of course 200 stop loss which is way up there.
SORRY MAN!!
I think this is just a good correction. I stepped in later than what your picture showed, cause now it looks like a double top.



That is the one hour chart.
And the only other ones I got going now is basically with the USD.
USD/CAD
AUD/USD

Let’s stay friends. :13:

Mike

Well, I found one more.
The JPY is strong. Trending high against the AUD. And the levels look good, for a 100.
AUD/JPY short at 90.374

1hr chart.


Mike

Good chance that there will be some gains on Euro today, the Greek govt has handed in the homework just before the deadline.

Seems there are some good things in that document that the Troika would likely agree to - but as usual there is a caveat.

The parliament gets to vote, the left of the ruling party are not happy, their most vociferous parliamentarian is the Energy Minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, he has not signed the homework.

To add even more drama (if that’s possible) neither has the head of the Junior partners in the coalition.

So it will be important to see how the opposition parties behave, will they think of their people or play politics?

So volatility ahead.

Really appreciate the update on Greece Peter !
Its been hard to keep up with Troika.

Yeah I noticed that EURJPY did gain a whole lot. Its been (very) choppy for the past few days.

Yeah, kick off from the usual place, has been worth around 100 so far.

Update on sentiment: there is a quiet optimism in other EZ countries that a deal is now possible, also seems that the Greek govt can harness enough votes from opposition MP’s to win their parliamentary vote. Could even be as soon as tomorrow - hold on tight :slight_smile:

Mike I am a newbie do you all mind if I can charm in and be apart of your group. Simone

Hi Simone.

Sure!
Welcome.

If you want to get to know who we all are, I would suggest read through the thread…from the beginning.
You would probably come on out of it on the smart side. Cause there are some real genius’s in here.

If you have any questions, let us know.

Mike

P.S. – You should really start in the BabyPips school of pipsology.
Honestly, that’s where you should start. Cause that’s the foundation of everything we know.

The see saw continues on Greece, some difficulties being encountered’ Finland not happy, also reshuffle imminent in the Greek government.

Likely heads of govt will be called tomorrow to Brussels.

The big problem is time, EU never works fast, so why leave things to the last minute.

Rumours swirling, Germany proposing a 5 year Grexit period, Finland having a political problem with a third bailout … to be continued.

Well that being said EUR gains were short lived at least for the moment. More volatility to come Monday and onwards. A wise man (Peter) said once :slight_smile: to buy the rumor and sell the fact.

Mike,

I bet this is just a correction too just wanted to bag some pips on the way up however far it may go. But the spotlight has been on EUR and YEN pairs more or so than comdolls the past week. I got out for few +pips and I’ll go with whichever shows momentum probably some more EUR pairs for next week.

Whats in your short term plan ?

Hmm…, think I’ll stick with the session plays, I’ll stay out Mon and wait until Tue morning.

There was a huge temptation to stay in on Friday, then again, why give back what the market has given.

Update on Greece - will affect the entire market - likely no deal, best case is a time out, trust has gone out the window.

Sounds negative, but if you are an investor and there is some sort of closure, maybe not so risk negative.

Using a silly tablet - not easy :slight_smile:

Hi Peter,

Here’s what I’ve found on forexlive you probably have read through this.

-Greek vote due Wednesday
-BNP say that if the outcome is negative, the ECB is likely to signal or deliver new easing measures
-That would be to counter market disorder & contagion risks and a EUR negative
-If , on the other hand, Wednesday’s vote was a positive, expect a EUR rally will to be short-lived; watch for opportunities to re- enter new shorts in spot

Hi Rookie,

Back to a laptop thank goodness, the talks went to the wire -“bruising” was the term used by one of the EZ leaders, I’d say they earned their wages this past weekend.

The Greek PM has his work cut out for Wednesday, but apparently he is well able for the challenge.

The probabilities lie with the Euro, (aside from any knee jerk on the interest rate debate on USD, Sept/Dec or 2016)

Today was negative Euro, but that’s Monday, nothing terrible unusual about price behaviour today.

S&P applied the usual logic even if fx didn’t, I have been long there this past couple of days, was looking for a firm close of that weekend gap back on June 29 - got that a couple of hours ago so exit and flat.

Might look for another long there again, but will wait for a few days in case of some selling.

Eur/Usd is more difficult, just went long in anticipation of current price being around the Mid Asian coming up, I was waiting to see if price would hit 1000, the fact that it fell just shy suggests a good amount of control - I’ll not set a SL or TP until tomorrow.

Peter,

I agree on EURUSD and similarly EURJPY, GBPJPY has been tricky. I realize that there’s equal amounts of sellers and buyers on both side of the trade on EURGBP as Greece mess drags on. I’m assuming everyones in anticipation of tomorrow’s deadline (how many deadlines have we had already !). I’m long on EURUSD and GBPJPY price was breaking out and the sentiment wasn’t all that gloomy. Oh well we’ll see.

Edit: That was a surprise Point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer says Carney dare I say I’m not that optimistic as Carney.

Hi Team,

Still on vacation but I took the time today to read everything through. I see the activity from Peter and Philip is as usual (means great value and continuous). I am happy to read the updates. Also Rookie is often there which makes me happy.

I agree with Mike on NZD/USD short and as I see BB changed his hero picture which makes me thinks that he has a new game to play in the spare time :slight_smile:

Good trading,

FE

As you know I was targeting that gap with a long and so exited, stayed out of S&P since.

USD/JPY got completed today, it took 2 weeks to happen - wonder will there be a pull back there now.

Good to see FE is still enjoying his hols :slight_smile: