Btw USD/CAD today - rose over 200 pips in the NY session.
USD/CAD Asian low - 2722, high 2747 so Asian mid was 2734.
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No, not a game this time. To tell you the truth, I always fancied medieval knights. So, here you go 
thank you so much Mike for all the helpful insight. I have been studying on babypips for the past month 1/2 now and my knowledge has grown. I have also done a few live and demo trades. I keep up with the current daily news so I have a good guide on where the market is going. And I do nothing but read the threads but I really enjoy getting in with the groups as I can never know too much. Loom forward in teaming up with you and reading your posts. Have a great weekend and thank you for the posts.
Hi everyone,
Welcome aboard the fundamentals MeNvrUpip.
Just a little mention on something that AFP are reporting on, itās called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) - lots of info on google.
Apparently the two lead negotiators, are reporting that their discussions are picking up pace as a result of backing from the US administration and G7 - Ignacio Garcia Bercero for EU and Dan Mullaney for US.
Just thought Iād mention since so many critics say the negotiations are āsecretā and some sort of major conspiracy by big business.
Will be interesting if such a deal can be done, the focus is to impact positively on both economies.
Hi Peterma! Hi Everyone! Based on what you have reported can you break that down in simple terms in respect to what it all means ā¦ are they still undecided and does it mean EUR/USD will remain bullish ?? Sorry I am not that deep with politicsā¦ lol
Itās just a theory I have about the Asian mid.
Mr Market is somewhat lazy, he wakens up in the morning and is way too lazy to check charts and candlestick patterns and inside bars or outside bars or pinbars or shooting stars - so when thinking about all that stuff he yawns.
āJust tell me the Asian high and lowā he yells (being lazy he is also grumpy, the Asian session is the last session, so being lazy and grumpy his memory is also a bit short, he often forgets what happened the previous day(s)).
So his secretary calls out the numbers, he has taken the time to read the calendar, so he has an expectation (bias) as to the probable outcome (in truth his underpaid secretary has done this for him).
He also has another attribute, he is not a maths wizard, so counting is not his thing.
Fibonacci is one the most renowned mathematicians of all time, in trading we have all the fib sequences or levels, these are too complicated for our hero so he introduces one of his own - way much easier - just divide the thing in half - they now call it a āFibā level, the 50% mark.
So being āsmartā (remember he is called smart money) he sets, or his underpaid secretary sets, or even his bot (trading robot) sets his orders - at ā¦
Itās just my theory, mid Asian on Eur/Usd on Friday was 10885.
Hey guys!
(gals)
Iām sorry I havenāt been too active in here lately. It surely isnāt because I donāt want to. I just havenāt had the time. On a daily basis I do check in here, but canāt post, and am always very busy with the numbers. And also with the system that I have going. I also have been so very busy at work (my day job). I cannot be on the computer there for any length of time, like I used to be, anymore.
So, Iāll tell you what Iāve been up to. And Iāll summarize my market sentiments.
First off, my system is doing just wonderful. I am very happy with my results. (Iām sure you guys remember the gist of it) But, whatās really really getting to me is this. Other than my trading results, where I use discretion of [I]when[/I] to get in and [I]which[/I] pairs to pick (and thatās to the pairs which are trending high on the weekly trend determination) ,ā¦I also have been keeping track (on a separate demo account dedicated to it)of [I]every[/I] trade that I have gotten into at the beginning of the week, and letting it run till either the take profit or stop loss hits. And my results are as follows.
So what I am doing is this. Comparing my discretionary trading technique to the set and forget technique.
The set and forget system goes like this. At the open of every week, I enter all of the trades and let them go. All of these that I get into are those pairs that are trending high (on the weekly time frame). All of them are set with a 100 pip profit, and a 200 pip stop loss. With (present level) a 2k position size. And normally there has been around 20 or so different pairs. Itās that simple.
And on the discretionary account I use some kind of judgement as the week unfolds. Usually itās been watching and waiting for a pull back to occur. Waiting for Monday to close. Or just seeing some kind of flow to unravel. And as the weeks go by Iām noticing myself taking less and less trades. I get real cautious doing it that way.
So, as the weeks go by, I am seeing more and more results. And the bottom line is I just cannot do any better on the ādiscretionaryā way than the āset and forgetā way. I keep track of the pips accrued and the %'s accrued. I have only pips accrued since April (on both accounts). I just started the % accrued only for a couple of weeks now. Since the beginning of April I have +2451.1 pips on the ādiscretionaryā account. On the āset and forgetā account I have +3200 pips accrued. For the ādā account since the beginning of May I am up +26.1%. (I have been considering that my real live accountā¦but really demo)
Okā¦thatās nice. But now, I have just had enough. I have been pondering this too long now. I am ready to take the plunge. Starting this coming week I am no longer going to be playing the ādā way. Itās all or nothing now. Iām all in. At the open (in about 7 hrs from now) I am going to set 18 trades and let them ride out. No more discretion. I cannot do it any better.
[B]And now for another change.[/B]
After much contemplating, I have finally found a better way. (This has been bugging me since the beginning.) Where did I come up with the numbers [B]100[/B] and [B]200[/B]??
Well, other than forward testing results, that are working, I have figured out what the take profit and stop loss should be.
I have ran the numbers from the beginning of the year. Every pairsā (28 total different ones) [I]average true range[/I]. Thatās the total range of pips in a week. The high price minus the low price on the weekly time frame. We just completed week 28 of the year now (weāre entering the 29th week this coming week). I totaled 27 weeks (did not count the black swan event week back in the second week of the year). So, I have come up with an average pip count for each pair per week. Itās really the volatility of each pair. That number is my stop loss. And my take profit number is half of that.
Iāll explain how I came up with all of that (tp and sl).
For example: the EUR/USD. The average range on a weekly basis is 332 pips. I will make the take profit 165 pips, and the stop loss 330 pips. The pair with the lowest range is the EUR/GBP. That will be an 85 pip take profit (which is the average pip range cut in half) and the stop loss will be 170 pips (which is the pairsā average weekly range). And the highest pair turns out to be the GBP/NZD. They average 617 pips per week. Soā¦if I enter them then I will make the take profit 300 pips and the stop loss 600 pips.
As I look at all of the pairsā numbers, it turns out that most of them actually are right around 100/200 pips. If any one wants to know what they all are, I have it all down on paper. And the only one that is below the 100/200 count is the EUR/GBP. Every other pair will be over 100 pip take profit/200 pip stop loss. Therefore I think I have been short selling myself on the system. There should be more pips taken than lost.
I figured that if the field is trending, then thereās a better chance of taking profit than losing. And even if there is a counter trend condition in the field, thereās still a chance of taking profit because my take profits are half of the average pip range.
And donāt forget that this is all starting at the beginning of the week, at the open. I feel it is much better to set them at the start.
Also there is the hedging factor. See, Iām dealing with pretty much everyone at the same time. So, what Iām really concerned about in the market is the ā[B]field[/B]ā. Is money flowing with the trend? (thatās one scenario) Is money making a turn around? (Is another). And donāt forget that my time frame is dealing with a weeks time. Monday does one direction, and by Friday things seem to level out. But, in the end, we all know that the trend will eventually win out. Thatās what I believe anyway.
So, this is what I got this week coming up.
The GBP is trending high against everyone. 7 trades there. They are the strongest.
The USD is trending high against 6 others (all except the Pound).
The CHF is trending high against 4 others. NZD,CAD,AUD,EUR.
The EUR is trending high against 2 others. NZD,CAD.
The JPY is trending high against 2 others. NZD,AUD.
The CAD is trending high against NZD.
The AUD is trending high against the NZD.
Thatās 23 pairs trending high. But, I have some already in a trade that hasnāt taken profit or stopped out.
I will enter 18 of those at the open. Iām gonna stay at 2k position size. And I have the table of all the take profits and stop losses for each pair.
This is big for me.
Talk about anxiety.
Set and forgetā¦see the results.
Iāll keep you all informed.
Mike
Great post Mike, have you considered a thread just journalling your journey on this?
Iām not totally surprised by what youāve found. For the past 7 or 8 weeks ive been following EurUsd, GbpNzd and GbpJpy, following long term trends with wide or no stop loss and tp of 100 pips or more. Sometimes ive had to wait 2 or 3 days to move into profit but, almost without fail, its been very successful and has greatly improved my account.
Look forward to your progress, best of luck
Hi Team,
now I am back and working full speed to catch up with everything. What I see in the past weeks is: the themes have not changed much, Commodities are bearish and Majors are either bullish or neutral. I will make my trading decisions based on these basic information.
I see Peter kept the thread live and we even have a new member.
Mike, your posts are getting better the whole time, I think you make great steps. I definitely like your volatility stop idea. This has a lot more logic into it (at least for me) than those 100 and 200 numbers. Maybe you could share your SL and TP levels sometimes. I also like your trend statistics. Only one critic if I may, we also made nice steps in your styling, but now it seems again a bit of a chaos. Please make at least a couple of enters in your post because you drive my old eyes crazy
So Mike, what is the difference actually between your and my strategy now (this is not to decide which is better, only looking at the hard facts): 1. you enter the trades when the week starts, I enter them when I get the signal. 2. You trade most/all pairs and I trade only the very best setups according to my rules. These are pretty much the main differences and many other points are the same.
I am waiting for any trades, ideas etc. to discuss,
FE
Hi FE, welcome back.
[I]I have four trades running, all four are not my best trading by any means but as they say, things happen.
Iām long Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd since Friday- now for the life of me I cannot figure why Iām long Euro. Iām long Gbp mainly due to the likely sentiment, but why Euro?
Both these trades are under water by around 60 pips each, so I had a choice this morning, either exit or hedge, so I hedged with a long on SPY and a short on Gold later today - so at least that has put the brakes on the minus number for now.[/I]
The above is me talking to myself last evening, I had broken one of my own rules by jumping the gun and opening new trades on Friday past, generally I prefer, in anticipation of an erratic Monday, either opening Monday evening or better still on Tuesday morning.
I ditched the buy on SPY quickly, for two reasons, first price was up at resistance and secondly after a couple of hours it was obvious that it was going nowhere - a reversal here would ruin the hedge setup.
I kept the hedge on Gold going because momentum was on my side. I chose Gold for the hedge for the same reason, USD was hot and Gold was cold.
I was hoping for a turnaround on Euro today, the day that I should have gotten into the trade if I hadnāt had the rush of blood to the brain on Friday.
The final outcome: had I closed the two trades there was a loss - I think around minus 150 pips total, with the hedge I have managed to close with gain of the equivalent of 47 pips.
I was lucky, very lucky, but sometimes learning how to not panic in a bad situation can bring some luck
Hi Peter,
I have some questions.
I see that you only like to write about 3 specific currencies: USD, GBP and EUR. Does this mean that you ignore all other pairs? Or do you never enter trades based only on technical analysis?
The other thing is just technical for the forum. I cannot use Chrome in the last days. Can you guys use it? Or only I have this Problem?
Nice way of handling your trades Peter.
FE
Btw, will probably go long again on Gbp/Usd - 3 reasons.
First the risk associated with the vote count is to the upside since existing is 009.
Second is Retail sales, consumer confidence is high, if you want extremes well were in that realm for this millennium anyways.
Associated with this have a look at the BRC report for June here:
BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor June 2015 - Strong Finish Makes June Growth Highest In 18 Monthsļæ½
And third, linking the above two is the expectation of rate hike, that expectation may gain some momentum, we have seen the result of that same expectation last year.
Hi FE,
I donāt actually ignore them, e.g. Iām aware re NZD and possible move there this week, some guys will trade that vs GBP which makes a lot of sense.
Sometimes I get to sense when a move is coming on the those 3 maybe because ā¦ I know those guys better, like todayās move on Eur/Usd, a little more patience would have got me in at the bottom - well actually at the Mid Asian at 1.0820 to be precise and as usual during the London Opening period (again as usual no SL actually needed since that level was the kick off line).
That was the level I watched, that was the key to the bit of luck, had it gone the other way then my belief that the downward move was to entice shorts would have been wrong and I would have had to exit.
Hey guys,
Just went long on GBPNZD. I didnāt realize Peters heads up post prior I entered the trade. I was riding EURGBP up yesterday gained some momentum early NY session I managed to got in at the bottom. Well now looks like GBP is back on spotlight. A lot of pound pairs broke out of its range late Asian session. The anticipation is high. Weāll see how the vote goes.
Good day all
Hi Rookie,
when entering GBP long then it is hard to decide against which other currency is there the best chance: AUD, NZD or CAD? All three are quite weak lately and they all made rate cuts. There is enough potential for upside moves.
Hmmmm I do not get These updates on BP. I do not even get emails anymore if someone posts hereā¦
Wish you guys many pips,
FE
Hey fellas.
First off, FE , yeah Google Chrome has changed. That was my web browser since the beginning. But now it doesnāt accept Java anymore. So I had to change. Now Iām with Firefox. That enables me to get in with my broker. Cause I couldnāt get in anymore. Firefox accepts Java, and that is what is needed for me to see my charts, with the broker.
Hope this helps some.
So, I see you guys talking about the Pound.
Well, as you should know, I have them running against everyone. And what a ride this has been so far this week. You just would NOT want to know how many pips I was down to.
I have 22 trades runningā¦real large stop lossesā¦(for instance GBP/NZD has a 600 pip stop loss)
Thank God! Cause it was run down to just about that!! And now it has climbed back up much.
Well, anyway, the total amount of pips I was looking at (at the beginning of Asia on Wed am) ā¦
just over -2,000 . Yep. And believe it or not I was not fretting much. Even showed the wife (even though she knows nothing about this stuff). Then she asks me, "well, whatās this number?..I said āthatās how much in dollars I have lostā¦and that number was over -$6,000.ā (on the 50k account)
Iām pretty confident in my system. And so, I wake up this morning (London open) and things look so much better now. I canāt believe I havenāt had any stop losses incurred. And thanks to the AUD news events, that boosted the field a lot.
And right now, at the present moment, we have only 6 minutes till the GBP huge news gonna happen. (Decision time)
I stand at -1200 pips now.
Let the games begin.
I really think there had to be a good correction with the Comms before they go on back down, (to where they belong).
Mike
Guys,
[B]FE[/B], speaking purely from technical point of view GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPCAD seems like a better deal to me than GBPJPY or GBPCHF (Iām just not fond of franc anymore, no offense) you could look up the monthly chart so much to catch up on these pairs. So now its a battle between pound and dollar with occasional eur rallies if Greece doesnāt throw a surprise party.
[B]Mike,[/B] its very brave of you to go long on pound across the board with that much wide SL. If you believe in your system thumbs up. But I havenāt got the guts to go full on , on a single currency, maybe I will grow to be braver but for now Iāll try to catch the bottom or the top with tight SL been trying out Peters entries Asian low, high and mid so far so good On the vote, well it was dissapointing there hasnāt been any increase in favor of rate hike its same as usual. I exited my GBPNZD long prior the announcement for some profit. Nevertheless pound crosses are doing alright at the moment EURJPY is down risk off is the name of the game. Pound crosses up. Iāll see what the sentiment is like tomorrow and go long if thereās momentum I canāt tell for now if the excitement has already worn off or if thereās potential buyers lurking around at key levels - the dip 
Then again weāve got some catalyst up tomorrow whatever the outcome Iāll go for the dip. Surely it will come. Its been choppy.
Big move today, Im up over 300 pips on this pair and RBNZ meeting hasnt happened yet!
I have been long for two days now, may be slightly early. But thatās not the point of the post. I just want to refer you guys to last year, right around the same time as now. It was the first few minutes of the Asia trading hours and I noticed NZD going down by 1% against all currencies. It was an unusual move for the lack of volatility on those days so I checked the news.
It turns out, RBNZ actually hiked rates but they said it was the last hike. And the price just collapsed. [B]Prices move in the direction of the next rate hike/cut[/B] Thatās what I learned from that.
Now everyone is adamant RBNZ will cut tomorrow. [B]But there is talk that they will remove from their statement talks about price of New Zealand Dollar being unsustainably high[/B].
Add to that the fact that commercials are at an extreme long and we might want to move stops to breakeven for this one.
Thereās an old market saying - when Mr Market gives you a prize always say thank you kind sir and take it.
I suppose if I were to say thanks but I want more he will either admire the audacity or else decide to take away what he had offered, or even worse, without the b/e SL take back what he had given in the past.
Btw, made up the part about the old saying