I was missing your nice articles and thoughts. Was good to see it again.
Well, I have to say I agree with Peter about the cycles are in the past and we live in the present. Your example of commdolls is similar like if we said to short crude at $105 and getting out at $40. But the question is: how many people did that? It is always easy to say in the present it was “obvious for oil to fall”, but we know it was not that of an easy call at all during when it happened. Probably every week some great analyst called a bottom at $70, then $60, $50 etc… We also reached a price under $30! So the past is always easy to trade, but the present is not.
About your question on gold: there was a COT index buy signal a couple of weeks ago. There was also a nice upward movement, but did not hold long. So this tells me the correction is weak, most likely (based on COT) we are in a downtrend and when COT index gets to the other side of the spectrum, the sell signal will be better (in the direction of the main trend).
Peter said often enough that EUR/GBP is the best sentiment indicator for the EUR and GBP crosses. Looking at that lately, compared with risk off sentiment, GBP/JPY short has been my best trade. What about you?
But I still do feel Gold will rally sometime this year given the extent of fear and uncertainty in the market. Sounds like a long shot but lets keep an eye on.
GBPJPY yielded thousands of pips so does AUD, NZD, CAD coupled euro and pound crosses. All because of risk off sentiment or fear in the market.
China GDP came about as expected. But few are convinced, US took a dive down. Asia started off on the wrong foot again equities and oil (Nikkei is officially in bear market apparently). GBP crosses except for JPY gave a buy signal late Asian session today. Despite Carneys bearish remarks GBP comm crosses refused to fall further today Asian session, again due to the fear in the equities. Now its upto Europe. Good job by the way on GBPJPY !
Yeah, what I’ve seen this week is pretty much like what happened last week.
The first 2 days slanted to the Comms, bottom line, by a little. Then comes Wednesday, from the Asia open, it turns. And sure enough…only about 2 hrs ago, the Majors take over. The Comms just fall apart.
Then last week, the Comms staged a minor come back on Thurs (over M’s by a little), but come Friday…forget it. It’s all over. Majors just put a beating all over the Comms. We’ll see how the rest of this week ends.
In my opinion, the Comms’ number is up. Boy, if it weren’t for the GBP, it would be a blood bath. I guess there’s always one Major looking pitiful. The EUR and CHF have been having their rolls. The USD is not in bad shape. Of course the safe havens have been enjoying raking it in. But, thanks to some bad data this week for the GBP, they just cannot get their heads above water. (sinking pretty bad)
That’s been the sentiment lately. All probably due to the oil affects.
My trading has been going very well. The first week was rough. But, that was definitely to be expected. I hung in there. The second week turned out good. And this week I about crushed it (good thing). I just cashed out with my monthly goals met already. So, it’s gonna be coasting for the rest of the month. That’s the goal, to be trading with a good cushion.
BTW…if you care to see any specifics, I post my results every weekend on my thread. In the trade journal section, ‘My journey journal…’ This weekend will have some very positive notes.
Yes, some of the thread content may not be necessary.
I am putting in the last 2 charts on each instrument page at the minute, then updating the database. I have 5 years data for the Net Positions and Open Interest Charts so will analyse this first but this time period is all subject to change. I am going to order the books on Friday.
yeah, all is fine, very busy, but of course I still trade. I just thought I ask for your monthly stats on the Major vs. Comms comparison, because you do not upload them and I would see happily the “standings”.
PipPhil,
ok, I will wait patiently until everything is ready
I went back to the start of this thread and created the COT Database for certain currencies + gold and I wondered if anyone had interest in me replicating that work in a Google Doc that can be viewed and shared by all? Or do people rather just maintain their own/use external sites for their data?
I’ve also created a currency correlations spreadsheet that I’m also maintaining. I’m probably going to put it in Google Docs eventually anyways so its available online vs. saving Excel spreadsheets. Just didnt know if people wanted to collaborate on such a thing or prefer working independently on their own materials.
I have completed the update process. Just 1 question. Since we are now in 2016, can I delete my first year, which is 2010, so I am still keeping in sync for the 5 years of data I have, and to keep my database at a reasonable size?
FE mentioned 2 books, “The COT Book” and “Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading”. I have now got the latter and “Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders” by Larry Williams. I also have “The Commitments of Traders Bible” by Stephen Briese. I could not find anything mentioned as “The COT Book”. Worked over weekend unfortunately and I am not off until Wednesday, but am then off for 12 days so I will get them read.
Sorry, if I wasn´t clear. “The COT Book” does not exist, I had to make a mistake. We were reading the two books you mentioned. Also, Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading has nothing to do with COT, it is simply a Williams book.
Hope it helped a little to clear up some things. I wish you great reading!
Can you tell a little about yourself and your trading? We know each other here very well and happy to have a new member. We do not know though anything about you.
I think you just drop posts everywhere without reading answers. I told you once here already that your only negative comments are not welcome here. Look for another part of the forums where they want people who are no use for the others. This is not the right place.
However I have seen in another thread too that you were not the most popular person…
A while back we discussed leading sectors and the stock market. It is fair to say that oil has been the leading sector in January, if not since October 2015.
Yeah, sure. As you know my name is Phil. I am from Greater Manchester, England.
I have been trading about 2 years now but only went live in July 2015 with a small cash deposit. I had a Demo account with Alpari UK, although you guys will know what happened to them in January last year due to the peg being lifted. Although this affected a lot of people in a negative way, it taught me a lot about broker types.
I am now trading with Vantage UK, now called GoMarkets UK, since about the time of my registration, they were about to merge together again. They were previously merged but decided to go their separate ways circa 2009 if I remember correctly.
I mainly use technicals and price action to trade and although I have had consistent running trades in the past, this is not always the case, and I am now down about 20% on my account, although I will not wipe myself out in a hurry.
This is why I am now trying to learn the fundamental side of trading and why I went to the Fundamental-ville forum first. This thread seemed interesting because I like the idea of having a lot of data to analyse, so this is the first thread I have been on since my graduation from the “School of pipsology”, although I am keen to try other threads and forums too.
I can only apologise for not introducing myself first and will do so in the future.
Oil is dominant on stocks because it is now very much a risk play, when it’s rising risk is on. I’ve noticed that aspect creep in more as oil price has gotten into these lower levels. There is some Fed reaction going on right now on the S&P, hard to determine the outcome just yet.
I agree with risk off and on sentiment. I do not trade stocks and indices as I do not see a clear trend. I will wait until it is all clear again. Maybe in the near future we can discuss it with Peter again and see which side of the market makes more sense. Until that time, I focus on the other markets. And you?
Thanks a lot PipPhil. Well as you see we work here together since 1.5 years so we understand each other quite easily, also writing emails. For this reason the thread is not as active as earlier, but we have discussed so many topics so we usually do not discuss them again the whole time. For the same reason however, there are so many tools that we also need to refresh the memory about stock sectors etc. so we come with questions to Peter and also discuss them between us.
You can come up with any questions and we will be happy to discuss as there are not too many other live threads in this part of the forum.
I have a whole collection of LW books and courses, unfortunately, I can’t e-mail them as the size is just too big. He has two great courses, Picture Perfect Trading and Sure Thing Commodity Trading, both of them got some solid info on COT analysis. Videos and PFDs. I’ll try to find the link where you can download them.
