I am sure there is a lot of stuff I am completely unaware of at the moment, some of the stuff I have read on this thread I have never heard of before. I am a newbie and it will take time, but hopefully when I have improved my fundamentals I can return with some decent questions. I am at the moment not using too many tools/indicators (Such as RSI, Stoch. and MacD) because I think they can influence my decision, and so have been trying to trade as pure as possible. For now though I am concentrating on the COT Report solely.
That is fine too. I now have both the training series you mentioned but I will be reading 'Trade Stocks and Commodities with the insiders (2005) and The Commitments of Traders Bible (2008) first. OK, I have read the first one but I will be reviewing the techniques again and seeing which is best for me. Wow, Fibo aināt all that, rabbits multiplying-wise!
Well I have completed the first book, āTrade Stocks and Commodities with the insidersā which took me about 2 days to read and there were a lot of different techniques, some that are included with the tutorial and some that are not. I will read it again to further scrutinize it when I am tweaking my charts.
I also want to try to automate the database a bit better because I had trouble updating the charts to present day. The techniques obviously take a lot of practice, and like Larry Williams says, it isnāt a magic trick to automatically profit, or something to that effect.
I am going to read the Stephen Briese book next and then move on to BBās suggestions which will take a fair bit of time too so will be back when I am stuck or posting something useful!
PipPhil, Iām in the middle of doing this. If you want to message me, we can trade ideas. If I have time, I hope to be done after the weekend. āIfā being the key word.
it is great you are also into trading it. The best would be if you discuss those ideas here so a discussion starts. Do you trade then based on the COT?
How did you fit the COT report into your trading system?
Iām in the working stages. Basing it all on analysis as Iām more a data driven individual. I have some correlation analysis done already and am putting together āreport cardsā per currency based on a combination of economic data, COT, etc. From there, Iāll put together my own strength reports and trade in the direction they suggest. I hope to finalize that this month and start testing with real money next month. I rather learn with real money (small money) and then gradually add to each each month Iām positive. If I lose in a month, I wont put more money in till Iām seeing consecutive months of positive again.
Thatās all my plan at least. Iāve been around learning here for a few years but only now have the time to try to make something of it. Iām sure that doesnt really answer your question directly but mostly suggesting that Iām still starting out.
On another note, I think I found a way to automate the COT data and will try to finalize that over the weekend using Excel.
Are there any Excel wizās out there? I have automated the updating of COT data into the spreadsheets after downloaded from CFTC site but having the dandiest time trying to make the charts dynamically update. PM me if you have any ideas.
OK. I figured out a way. My database and charts should update dynamically after downloading and overwriting the 2016 file each week.
Iāll test this out for bugs in the coming weeks and offer it up to anyone interested if it works out as desired. Its a large file though given the data and charts.
EJ
P.S. Apologies that this is a tangent to the normal thread topic but I had thought some automation was desirable for those keeping an Excel database.
this belongs 100% to the thread topic as it is an advanced way how to deal with the COT data. I would be very happy to try out your method so I am waiting for how your tests worked out.
At the same time, take a look at gold, now it is again showing high correlation with silver, and both the Net position and COT Index should reach an extreme value. More than that, we are sitting with gold on the weekly chart channel resistance zone. The last time we were discussing gold, it worked out great to the upside, this time the signal should be easier as if it comes, then it lines up with the ongoing long-term trend which makes it a lot easier to trade.
Gold very much the risk play at present. The two etfās that I have in a gold folder is GLD and GDX - the latter being slightly more leading since itās miners.
The interesting thing on daily on both has been the recent break of the high, with associated increase in volume before reaching that high.
Some guys would say perhaps the increase in volume reflects sells at the high, but price continued up with the volume, much greater volume than when reaching highs last year, so investors have been buying both etfās heavily in the past 8 days.
Will it continue? - likely the the little spurt in oil could fizzle out, if so then more stock selling and gold buying for a while anyhow.
Interesting analysis Peter, I always like your write ups on ETFs. What got my attention is the percentile difference between GLD and GDX. GLD incresed about 12% recently while GDX about 50%. What is the trick and reason behind those huge percentile differences between the two?
As far as I have been observed gold, these risk off and risk on moves were more short term and on longer term inflation was the deciding factor. Saying that, inflation is still bad, so I am still getting ready to see the downward movement. As always, it will be interesting to see how it plays out!
FE, as always this thread is a little ahead of the curve.
Recent research articles by Greenwich Associates Research (referred to as a market intelligence company, they are into market research in the current time frame) will perk interest by more participants.
Seems their research, published last month, is suggesting that institutions ā¦ lol, they tell it better than I can:
(btw, RIAās ,Registered Investment Advisor, used to be the big guys, but looks like they are being overtaken)
Thanks Peterā¦good stuff!
Reading that link just reminded me of a book a just bought. What a book guys. This is the direction I will be taking. Gonna take a long time though.
Global Macro Trading ---- Profiting in a new world economy---- by Greg Gliner (Bloomberg)
Hi guys, that was Jan 13th at 75.54, the hot shots still thought they could get it back down, draw a horiz on the close on that date and you can see their efforts.
Likely another push up this week and it is still not spring, so looks like 80 is still on the cards.
As usually, you saw what was coming I have been looking on many JPY strength and GBP weakness everywhere.
Interesting to compare the different indexes. DAX lost about 25% in the last months, some other a lot less. I like these relative strength indicators. Are you trading S&P these day?
Eur/Gbp is the only instrument that I have to take a longer term view on.
Still with the S&P, obviously not now trading for the new highs, though wouldnāt be surprised to see that happen again, especially given all the negativity.
Still using ETFās for breadth indicators, see many of the banks now using Bond ETFās, so found that interesting, I have been using TLT and IEF for anaylsis on the US10yr so work in progress.
I have been looking on many JPY strength and GBP weakness everywhere.