I take a view that the current ‘break’ is no more than a dent in a cracker
(the kind that you eat with cheese)…
The 0.80 in EUR/GBP (entirely my opinion, please shoot me now) is no way near broken… In the
greater scheme of things, it will take some work to get past this… Okay, so we are now at 0.8080,
and is this not roughly around that important, years-long zone (around the 0.80 mark, +/- a couple of hundred pips)
as well as the near-top (depending on how you draw/position those lines) of a bear channel from 2009?
You bet it is…
This thing is just playing out a channel-type movement… You do not need lines
to see that the next move is down…
The ECB’s QE expansion announcement last month may have failed to crush the Euro but
its implementation has started last Friday and we are going to see the fruits of a Euro-flooding
supply glut soon enough… The system will be pumped with EIGHTY BILLION Euros PER MONTH and there
is also the factor of historic lows in Euribor (Euroepan inter-bank offered rate), as you can see here
Euribor charts - graphs with historical Euribor rates
There is absolutely no way in hell that EUR/GBP can do much more than rally a bit and then stall,
given that the Pound is propped up nicely between 1.35 and 1.45 by more orders than any money
could dream of counter-trading.
So EUR/GBP will fall, hard, and it is just a question of when.
Rock on a break of 0.70, I am waiting :))