Hi Philip,
are you shorting gold? It has been moving down nicely!
What makes me worry a bit though that net positions are heading to more extreme and the COT Index in case of both silver and gold are not moving down but remains on an extreme reading. Any thoughts?
FE
Hi Guys,
interesting weeks behind us. I was thinking a lot on the situation of the USD and commodities. XAU/USD seems at the moment to me a weak vs. weak setup. The USD has lost some ground both fundamentally and based on the technicals too. Still, gold was not able to make gains which shows its weakness. Until the COT report does not change, I am definitely on the short side. At the same time looking at USD currency pairs, there were some great opportunities with the exotic currencies to short the USD. What a great trade it could have been buying TRY vs. Gold? 
Although I have never seen that matchup at any broker, so currently the only way trading it is through the USD.
Also some great COT Index signals on Crude Oil, not sure if someone has traded it.
Have a great weekend,
FE
Hello ForExchange!
Good to.see that this thread is still going!
How is your trading?
Hi guys, hi PMH,
I see our old friend Eur/Gbp has finally made it up to the 80.00 mark, suits many commercial entities to have a real exchange level of around 20% difference, so reasonable chance of some support in the months ahead.
FE, Oanda seem to offer a few choices on gold, but no TRY, I suppose commodities will stay low for some months yet.
USD, there are rumours of an agreement among some Central Bankers that they would talk it low, or at least the Fed would do so, hard to know, there was certainly a shift in Yellen’s tone, but my own feeling is that Euro strength is continuing to keep a lid on the USD
I still feel that the Euro strength became visible on Dec 3rd last year, (post 4070) also the date that some commercials decided on 80.00 for this Spring on Eur/Gbp and not 60.00 as was being forecast by some banks. I also still feel that Germany, in particular Weidmann, is the influence, reading his later speech in March as reported on BIS it seems that his outlook is unchanged.
Anyways, the IMF are happier with a weaker USD for emerging markets since some of those countries have USD debt.
Have a good week guys.
You know, Peterma, I really cannot see how EurGbp can continue beyond 0.80, and I know it is bad to have opinions against what price does, but technically, fundamentally, and in terms of market conditions I cannot see this spurt up continuing much…
Interesting what you said about USD … Let us see what the April meeting will bring from.the Fed…
Hi PipMeHappy,
the thread is live, but we learnt a lot from the work from the past what we did together so it seems like it helped everyone to find his own style and the members took their own way to take advantage of the knowledge.
Still, peterma is always there if there is a question or a thought so even if the thread is not moving so fast, it does not mean we are not in touch
We also got a new and very valuable member, there is work going on in the background. Thanks, my trading is also going good, have a strategy and my trading style, so it is “only” about executing it.
I am following your posts in other threads (not the one about female traders :-))) ), one of your late posts me made think a lot, it is a bit private topic so I drop you a message rather.
How is it going for you?
FE
Hi Peter,
No surprise that you interpreted the data the right way, and got it right again. It happened already so many times that you knew the future Did you close your position or just made some adjustments?
Take care,
FE
Hi ForExchange,
that’s wonderful!
Yes, do e.mail me!
I am trading long-term, still finding my feet with that (unfortunately it takes much longer to know if your
long-term analysis was ‘right’)!
So glad to see this thread going, because I am now more and more using COT reports to see
sentiment for currency futures…
Peterma is a living legend… and should be named FX-Honorary Oracle!!!
Hi FE,
I was just very lucky in that I sensed interbank rate of 80.00, the ideal for me is around 81.00 to 82.00 for the summer months, that will give a 20% difference in the two currencies which will suit fine, we’ll see how things play out.
I’m no oracle, just lucky, now off to play the lotto
I take a view that the current ‘break’ is no more than a dent in a cracker
(the kind that you eat with cheese)…
The 0.80 in EUR/GBP (entirely my opinion, please shoot me now) is no way near broken… In the
greater scheme of things, it will take some work to get past this… Okay, so we are now at 0.8080,
and is this not roughly around that important, years-long zone (around the 0.80 mark, +/- a couple of hundred pips)
as well as the near-top (depending on how you draw/position those lines) of a bear channel from 2009?
You bet it is…
This thing is just playing out a channel-type movement… You do not need lines
to see that the next move is down…
The ECB’s QE expansion announcement last month may have failed to crush the Euro but
its implementation has started last Friday and we are going to see the fruits of a Euro-flooding
supply glut soon enough… The system will be pumped with EIGHTY BILLION Euros PER MONTH and there
is also the factor of historic lows in Euribor (Euroepan inter-bank offered rate), as you can see here
Euribor charts - graphs with historical Euribor rates
There is absolutely no way in hell that EUR/GBP can do much more than rally a bit and then stall,
given that the Pound is propped up nicely between 1.35 and 1.45 by more orders than any money
could dream of counter-trading.
So EUR/GBP will fall, hard, and it is just a question of when.
Rock on a break of 0.70, I am waiting :))
Pipme, nice avatar.
You could well be correct about the stall, but likely there will be support at least until the summer, then who knows, decision time maybe in Sep/Oct.
One little thing, since that cross’s inception, if you take it’s low to it’s high and check out where price is now, lol, just have ran my first fib ever on Eur/Gbp
Btw, never got around to doing the lotto, too much like gambling
THank you, Peterma!
Sorry, I was out teaching for the afternoon…
Yes, maybe the summer months (if summer ever came to these northern corners of Europe)
may see a stall in Eur/Gbp (and other pairs)…
Yes, the 0.80 is the mid-point of the 0.65 - 0.95 range, a 3,000-pip span… The perfect fulcrum, or mid-point,
and we have slowly but surely swung back below it some time after the 2009 peak…
Happy lotto playing…
If you make a big win, will you start your own hedge fund?
Well, you better go off and buy that Yorkshire village quickly haha
Hi Guys,
I am stuck. I will be adding commodities soon and when looking at OIL WTI and BRENT this is a bit confusing.
There are 2 similar headings, one is CRUDE OIL,’ LIGHT SWEET-WTI - ICE FUTURES EUROPE’ and the other is ‘CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE’.
To further complicate this BRENT OIL is listed as ‘BRENT CRUDE OIL LAST DAY - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE’, however the internet swears to me it is ICE FUTURES. Does the exchange matter or does the COT Report just need updating? Apparently WTI is traded on both!
Anyway I have got my new data in on a 3 year and am using 26 week charts across the board. I am only using 4 charts from the tutorial but I will be adding other things to improve entry.
Thanks
PipPhil.
Hi PP,
great to hear from you!
Well, if you check the Babypips school on the COT report, it suggests to use the Chicago Mercantile data for your analysis. So this was our starting point.
Just for clarification, there are two main oil types which are tradedable by many brokers: the US and the UK oil. It is important that you know which one you are looking it and make your analysis on it.
If you decided to use another exchange and not the Chicago Mercantile, this is fine, but you should always check that it has enough OI.
If you have further questions, do not hesitate to ask it!
FE
Hi FE,
My brokers website says the WTI is on NYMEX and Brent is on IPE (I think they mean ICE). The data downloaded with this weeks data, concerning commodities, for example gold or silver, there is only 1 possible selection for each and it is Commodity Exchange Inc., as for BRENT or WTI, it is either NYMEX or ICE FUTURES. The only thing I can select with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is currencies by the looks of it.
<EDIT> I have just checked the IPE wiki and this changed to ICE FUTURES in 2005. I guess this is the one I want for BRENT. Since my broker uses the NYMEX for WTI, this is the one I will want from the two. Since I only get one option for gold and silver, it can only be this. I have just found out that ‘commodity exchange inc’, or COMEX (primary market for trading metals), is owned by CME Incorporated. CME Group now owns The Merc, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX, so it is all good.
<FURTHER EDIT> Apparently the info I need for BRENT is on the ‘ICE FUTURES’ website and is a complete different source of information than the CFTC.
[I]The ICE Futures Europe Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of open
interest in certain of the Exchange’s commodities according to the category of trader holding the
position. The Exchange publishes the reports to increase the transparency of the participation in its
markets.
‘The reports are designed to be as similar in format and content as possible to the established U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders reports.’ [/I]
Thanks
PP
Hi PP,
your two last posts shows exactly why a thread like this brings people forward and why it is good to share what you have in mind.
In the first post you had some doubt and raised a question. I made a comment which I see now was not really the answer what you were looking for. But, as you did not get the answer you wanted, you just moved ahead and did the needed research on your own and came up with a great post where you basically answer all issues raised in the first post.
This is great because you learnt from it (1) and also shared knowledge with the community (2).
I am sure the others would be also interested to see if your COT experience moves forward and you could share both negative and positve experience with us so we all can benefit from it.
Keep up the great work,
FE
Hi Guys,
So I have managed to get the COT Data from the ICE FUTURES web page, but not everything is as it seems.
This is also true of the disaggregated reports on the CFTC
How it was
The Commitments of Traders Report is split into three groups:
Commercials, consisting of Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers
Non-Commercials or Large Speculators, consisting of Managed Money and Other Reportables
Small Speculators
How it is now
The Commitments of Traders Disaggregated Report is split into four groups:
Commercials - Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Commercials - Swap Dealers
Non-Commercial - Managed Money
Non-Commercials - Other Reportables
…So I may leave BRENT for now.
PP
