June 23rd, it’s much bigger than the Scottish vote from an economic perspective.
Strangely, it’s politicians who are the debate drivers, mostly they focus on the political aspect which is not surprising.
In the US the opinion is that the UK will stay in, here, it is not just as clear. The market will likely discount the notion of leaving until closer to the date, then the possibility will get priced on GBP negatively.
The economics of an exit are difficult to quantify, the effect will be huge and I suspect negative, much would depend on the attitude of other EU countries and that is where the uncertainty lies.
Many businesses are already planning for an exit, the problem is enormity of the uncertainty.
Bottom line is that Eur/Gbp will likely head on up.