you did not write about your backtesting results. How could you build it into your strategy? How is the automatic update of your database? Is it working well or are you still working on it to optmize?
Peterma,
EUR/GBP is just on the way to your 0.80 goal I am not sure if you are in a longer term trade with that TP, however as you said long ago, the pair is on its way to get there!
PipPhil,
did you finish the COT books? I am happy to see any update on your COT journey!
Getting guys back to the basic, I write an update what the COT Report said on last Friday (2 days ago) about gold and silver as it is very interesting. We reached the extreme 100.00 reading for both instruments. This would mean if we are not at a long-term reversal then looking for sell signals might be very profitable. We now that COT Report is sometimes not a great timing tool so first rather wait for confirmation. Still, there are usually 1-2 such signals in the direction of the main trend per year so this might be interesting to look after.
If someone has an opinion I am happy to discuss it!
Not in a trade, more to do with the ‘commercial’ side of the equation. Suits well around current rate up to around 84, the ideal is 81 to 81.50, and to remain within that range for around six months or so.
The testing I may have referred to was more testing the spreadsheet I setup. It works so far after downloading the Excel file from CFTC and then dragging the formulas in my template down one row for all tabs. That whole process takes less than a minute I’d guess. Charts update automatically.
But “plan” is still in the shadows. I’m working on “currency” report cards based on data I collect. Work in progress really. I hope to finish up my efforts in March and place my first trade by then.
On a side note, is there a reference in this thread someplace that dissects the six or so COT charts that were referenced here? I’m at that point now where I’m trying to provide initial comments on the COT data I have now.
No, there is no reference for that. Basically we discussed those 6 COT charts after the whole setup from BB. We did quite many analysis where we discussed on live examples the meaning of those charts.
Can you send in email your spreadsheet with some kind of an explanation how to update those charts in a minute? Sounds just great.
I’ll try to put something together so we can give it a shot after this Friday’s updated #'s. I’ll detail how you update sheets that already have data and how to create new sheets (I’ll use Silver as the reference) if you want to setup additional charts.
Please remind me if I forget as I’ve been a little preoccupied lately.
we see some interesting price action for gold and silver. Gold is going up continuously while silver is not really following it. In the COT Index it is also shown with the numbers. The gold COT Index is still at an extreme level and silver COT Index started to move downwards. It will be interesting to observe which is going to follow the other one.
Brexit is an interesting topic, maybe we can have some thoughts on it. It seems like British people cannot have enough action. Last year the Scottish Referendum took the highlights, now the possible exit of the EU. Now it could be interesting for the GBP traders to spot the possible similarities. The last time GBP fell on the uncerntainty of Scotland possible leaving the EU and after the vote the GBP reversed and made very strong and nice gains.
Are we about to see something similar here? Actually there is the vote, but every the media writes how bad it would be to leave the EU, top economists also say that the whole time. I shared my opinion a couple of times what I think about the media and all those articles, but even if I do not believe them, they make me think.
So if the uncertainty is away, do you think there will be a similar GBP strength movement like the last time? When is exactly the decision making weekend?
June 23rd, it’s much bigger than the Scottish vote from an economic perspective.
Strangely, it’s politicians who are the debate drivers, mostly they focus on the political aspect which is not surprising.
In the US the opinion is that the UK will stay in, here, it is not just as clear. The market will likely discount the notion of leaving until closer to the date, then the possibility will get priced on GBP negatively.
The economics of an exit are difficult to quantify, the effect will be huge and I suspect negative, much would depend on the attitude of other EU countries and that is where the uncertainty lies.
Many businesses are already planning for an exit, the problem is enormity of the uncertainty.
Bottom line is that Eur/Gbp will likely head on up.
Are we decided that you are my test case? I put together two documents. One is for adding a new week to the spreadsheet and having the charts update. The other is creating a new tab other than the ones I already have in the spreadsheet.
I’m sure there’s going to be an issue or two with my instructions so let me know where you want me to contact you and send the files so we can avoid cluttering up conversation here.
Awesome work! Just really great! It shows also how great it is to put the time and work into a project like this thread and later, when it is not that active anymore, new people can find it and make the next step. That is just what happened.
I seriously believe that the work we are doing is very unique as not so many people are dealing with the COT report and definitely not at this level.
Great to work with you, I hope BB you might also get into touch with us if you are interested. The next generation was born
I have completed the first read/watch of all mentioned and will be adding commodities, some equities and hopefully cross-currencies too since I only have the majors at the moment. This is where I am at, so I am hoping you guys may know how to use cross-currencies using a synthetic method.
Once I have enough instruments I can figure out which other techniques I will be using because I would like to add more charts and tailor specific charts to specific instruments depending on their success because they may not work with all of them.
I will be using 3 years of data instead of 5 years so that will need adjusting too. FE/EJ - I will look into the update process once I have the cross-currencies method and have picked the techniques to use which I am about to do now.
well, we did historical analysis in the thread already on cross currencies for the COT Report and it did not work out good unfortunately. There is a way to do it, but if you combine lets say EUR/USD and AUD/USD open interest to get the EUR/AUD cross, then the result will not be so good as there is a huge open interest difference between EUR/USD and AUD/USD and therefore the results will not help much with trading.
Something similar was the case with index trading.
Commodities and major currency pairs worked a lot better for us.
If you have any thought or different results, share it with us.
Peter,
thanks for the links, very interesting. It seems like the larger countries really load up with their gold. Still, it is falling
OK, I shall just continue setting up my commodities and arguably equities like the S&P500 for now. It will leave me with too few instruments though I think.
The countries can act as some commercial entities do, especially re-sellers, as gold depreciated so they bought more. Now that gold has been rising since the start of 2016 it will be interesting to see their buying in q1.
Also good to see how the knee jerk acted today on Gold vs USD
Although the impression I get is that “The Man” is not entirely convinced by OI, as opposed to the commodities, etc, so this wouldn’t bother me from taking the risk without that data too much!
I am not sure if you are in a longer term trade with that TP, however as you said long ago, the pair is on its way to get there!