I closed my USDCAD position for massive loss. Its at 1 month low, I might look into buying it soon at this level.
Hi Philip,
amazing run for CAD, right? Hmmm no direct economic catalyst, neither sentiment change (because in the second case NZD and AUD would also get very strong). So I tend to guess it can be the affect of the merger that either Peter or rookie posted ealier (do not remember who it was but someone) about Burger King. The other guess would be something with oil. If it is a merger, then I would like to read later on about it at what time it was and how it went because I have read many times how M&A can have a huge affect on forex but I could never observe it live.
As the two CAD trades are hedging for me, I do not bother to hold them. If I lose, then the exotic currency wins win be a lot larger, if I win with it, well at least I can hedge then one part of my losses.
Keep me updated if you find something about it.
The Canadian company - Tim Hortons is merging with Burger King. The shareholders of Tim Hortons will get 65.50 Canadian dollars for every share they own plus 0.8025 shares of the new company.
In theory that would cause buying pressure for CAD.
The reality is it small change for such a big market.
The deal was first announced two days ago, although only confirmed today
The selling on USD/CAD is just,imo, a reflection of the USD squeeze, many market analysts try to put reasons for these moves, Iām just cynical and say it doesnāt matter, they just do it anyway.
These ācorrectionsā are an opportunity to buy USD, but Iāll still wait until after London fix on Friday.
This is what Adam Button says:
āOverall, nothing much has changed in the Canadian dollar landscape. The hype about the BK/Tim Hortonās deal is overdone. Canada isnāt an offshore tax haven and there will be no rush for companies to invert and move to Toronto. I get the sense that hedging flows, month end flows and technicals are the biggest part of the loonie rally today. Thatās not the stuff that a long-term rally is built on.ā
Thanks Peter for fast answer. I thought about it I just did not really got how exactly it affects the market.
Well, Philip is Adam Button fan, and as I see you two. I come slowly to the point that I also have to be 
I am not a technical trader but tried to check all my technical knowledge to see how far can CAD possible go vs. USD. Well, I did not have to look for too long, the 38.2% Fib stopped it, all we have to look for if it turns it or just temporarily stops the CAD. It worth it to check it as it gives a great possibility for us I guess.
You area absolutely right FE in terms of a technical perspective that it was stopped at a 38.2 retracement. I want to seea61.8 retracement to buy it blindly. I have a plan b if that retracement doesnāt come. Thatās why Iām not too disheartened about the loss because I think its a temporary one and now I will look to make a bigger profit because, as Peterma said, this is a good opportunity to buy the dip. I also agree with you [I]Peterma[/I] that this is a dollar squeeze of the stop losses before a big move is continued.
What makes me even more convinced is that, despite this being a very bearish candle, is that USDCAD has went from the highest level since July to the lowest one for the same period in only two days for absolutely no reason. I think its just unlucky for my part that the loss was that huge (it was down a full 1% yesterday only). But there is no doubt our bias is right.
Hi guys!
Wednesday is in the books.
CAD: +7 0 0
NZD: +4 -1 2
CHF: +3 -1 3
JPY: +1 -1 5
AUD: +1 -2 4
EUR: +1 -3 3
GBP: +1 -3 3
USD: +0 -7 0
Comms took Majors +9.
Majors vs. Comms
CAD: +5 -0 0
NZD: +3 -0 2
CHF: +0 -1 2
JPY: +0 -1 2
AUD: +1 -0 4
EUR: +0 -2 1
GBP: +0 -2 1
USD: +0 -3 0
Notes:
Comm did not have a down day against any Major. NZD was down against CAD, AUD down against CAD,NZD.
CHF was strongest Major. Down only against CAD. Even against the other 2 Comms and JPY.
Everybody was up against the USD.
AUD was up only against the USD. And even against all other Majors. Interesting. Between both big dogs the AUD was stronger. Of course, their a Comm.
JPY was even against all except down against CAD and up against USD.
Thank you Peter for enlightening us on your thoughts of CAD today.
I put in a trade tonight, around 00GMT now, for USD/CAD north. Surely the USD has to make a comeback before the end of the week. And after seeing this massive crash with CAD, Iām in now.
Hope you guys are doing ok.
Iāll leave you with a couple shots of the big picture.
This first one was taken just at 00GMT.
And this one is a half hour later.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
Hey guysā¦
So my AUDUSD got closed -70pips
NZDUSD +47pips /I kept it from last week closed it on Monday/
EURAUD +30pips
EURUSD -40pips /still going/
I thought it was going to be. A good week for me at last. But guess I was wrong. We havenāt seen USD gaining strength at least up till yesterday.
I wonder whatās going to happen today. Iāll see if I can make trades today.
FEā¦ Youāve got quite a portfolio ! I feel you about your exotic pair trades. Good thing youāve got hedge trades going on the side. Itās hard to predict whatās going to happen in terms of risk aversion thing. Like peterma said whatās being said is not important. So lookout for your trades. And hopefully youāll manage to close them at break even if not in profit.
Itās probably going to be a comms week. Weāll test the 3s this week. If thereās turn out to be some sort of pattern - 3s. Thatās going to be very interesting. Highly value able tool. Good job Mike!
Have you went long on any CHF Philip ? Looking at Mikes latest stats. That CHF was the strongest major. Not sure if thats going to continue. If it does. You might have bought at the bottom.
Mikeā¦ I like your app that shows the strong v the weak. Do you confirm your stats with your app ? Iāll check that out. Looks good.
Itās funny you still get nervous when you see CHF ranking higher. To be honest Iāve been focusing my attention on more on USD and AUD this week But nothing has really been triggered on the CHF pairs Iām watching yet. I think CADCHF is setting itself for a nice fall and I might enter CHFJPY this week or the next. weāll see.
Hey guys.
Well, I took a hit overnight with the one trade I had going. USD/CAD long. -15 pips. I got out of that just recently. And I also lost with a scalp EUR/USD long. -9 pips.
So, I figure I will keep you up on what Iām doing. Now Iām not in the market. But before I leave for work in around an hour from now, and as soon as Iām done posting this, Iāve decided to put in a bunch of limit orders.
Itās all gonna be for a strong USD against most everyone. Today is gonna be a big economic indicator day for them. GDP. Iām gonna pick some levels (swing highs, or lows) to get in at with some take profits in place. Iām not looking for a whole lot of pips on each pair but will go wild against mostly everyone. And also some large stop losses in place. Iāll post what I put in place shortly.
I really think this is the calm before the storm. Canāt believe itās taking this long for the USD. But we do have 2 more days now. Today the spotlight is on the USD and tomorrow is the day for balancing portfolios. I think thereās gonna be some really big movements. I guess it did start yesterdayā¦but it was with the CAD! (who are they anyway???)
Be back shortly.
Mike
Guys.
Well the orders are in now. Basically USD against everyone, except GBP. (Iām scared of them.)
Iāll just tell you where Iām gonna be in with each one. If you want any more specifics, let me know.
AUD/USDā.93459
NZD/USDā.83402 (already been set early this week, keeping it the same)
USD/CADā1.08755
USD/JPY----104.003
EUR/USDā1.31905
USD/CHFā.91609
Commmmmmmm onnnnnn USā¦
Hereās the US dollar index. 1 hour chart from the start of the week.
See ya guys.
Mike
Hey guysā¦
Hereās the latest headline on Ukraine/Russia conflict.
Kiev says Russian troops have entered eastern Ukraine - MarketWatch
Kiev says Russian troops have entered eastern Ukraine
Kiev said Thursday that Russian forces have seized the coastal town of Novoazovsk and several villages near the border with Russia, part of a wider assault on a new front that is raising fears in the West that Moscow is undertaking an outright invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council and the European Council to respond to what he called the incursion of Russian forces.
In a televised statement from Kiev, Poroshenko said he canceled a planned trip to Turkey because āthe introduction of Russian forces into Ukraine has taken place.ā He set an emergency meeting with his security chiefs for later in the day.
There was no immediate response from Moscow, but the Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed claims its forces are fighting in Ukraine.
Iām down with NZDUSD and my EURUSD is still going. I might long USDJPY. So far I donāt see any technical signals yet. Its about time for USD to beat them all up during US session.
Weāll see what happens during US session.
Hi guys,
I know, today I am slow with answers. I will answer in the afternoon for everything.
Now I only wanted to share you that I closed some of my long trades. I do not like to make fast decisions but I do believe it was the right time to do it. USD got weaker the last days as we know, the sentiment is for Comms. And then was suddenly the news on all sources from Russian invasion, safe havens just made a huge rush with a short period of time. My USD longs came into positive territory and I was surfing the charts in all pairs. I have seen that even in these market conditions USD cannot really hold to the gains. So I decided to close some of my USD long trades and get back at a better price after weakening. (I closed them about half an hour 45 minutes ago and they are on their way to weaken again.)
For me it is only about probabilities and getting an edge. I was thinking if in short-term USD should weaken or get strength (long-term is strong for me without a doubt) and there was a 2-1 victory for weakening and I closed the trades.
Reasons:
-
USD weakens: [I]sentiment[/I] is just not on their side. We see it in the [I]technicals[/I]. Based on technical analysis I can jump back into longs on a better price.
-
USD weakens: [I]month-end fix[/I]; here I cannot sell the concept that I was thinking about this issue all week long as I heard this expression yesterday the first time. Still, I read the article, made some research and price actions confirms that month-end fix does weaken the USD after such a rally.
-
USD gets stonger: [I]GDP release[/I] in about 37 minutes. When I think about this report I would be really really really surprised on a negative reading. After the reports coming out I either expect a flat reading or an upside surprise. So here I think USD can get stronger or no large movements.
This sums up 2-1 score for weakening USD until tomorrow night and with going this method I took the chance to close the trades and get back at a better price after weakening. If GDP is strong and weakening does not come today (worst case scenario in my case) then I missed the boat (as they tought me this expression in babypips school).
I wish you guys good trading and do not make long-term conclusions based on the choppiness of these days!
PS: these moments might be the right to go short on JPY. It got strong on the news but is losing vs. the comms (the moves were significant vs. the comms). This gives a possibility for good short-term setups. Unfortunately I have way too many open positions and canāt afford to open a lot more. Just a thought, do not enter the trade based on this idea.
What I hope to see is a good GDP reading but a weakness in the dollar.
So there is the upward revision we were expecting
[I]Philip,[/I]
hmmm, yes the report came out a lot better than the expectation. At least for a first read +0.3% (4.2% vs 3.9%) is quite a difference in my opinion. However the initial reaction was very small, but bullish for the USD. Since that time USD gains little but relatively continuously vs. GBP, AUD and NZD and flat on EUR, JPY, CHF and CAD.
[I]rookie,[/I]
I think you are doing fine with your trades. You should be so negative. The only question you should be asking if you are not closing trades too early. I do not know if EUR/AUD is closed or open. I hope open as it looks a very profitable pair.
And yes, the exotic currencies took quite a hit today! I guess breakeven would be a great result. Now I have to really watch out with them, the best would be to find the market top, enter some trades and then I only have to make āhalf of the ride southā to be breakeven. However it is not so easy to find the market top.
Wowā¦ I read your post on Russia. You can bet that I read the news on every site with my exotic currency trades. Slowly I could be a Russia/Ukraine expert.
[I]Mike,[/I]
I see you entered the trades a bit early but finding the exact turning point is not so easy so in long term it might be ok. What I do not know though, that tomorrow we expect USD selloff,so if it happens then it might have been better to wait London open and watch out what happens. Good luck though!
[I]Philip and rookie,[/I]
about the CHF conversation. I think the most I like in Philip is that he is flexible. He liked the CHF on the weekend but saw that it is boring now so he looks at the interesting currencies and when CHF gets interesting he will jump in. IMO rookie, we have to watch out with CHF as the last two days were again risk off again and might not tell much about CHF strength. However CADCHF and CHFJPY looks good as Philip choose two weak currencies. Actually CAD can lose in short-term I think even more because its win has only to do with M&A, but still I think in the longer term CHFJPY has a better chance because I find JPY even stronger than CAD. Still I will not go long with CHF as I feel it uncomfortable to go long with CHF and having bearish EUR bias. But I guess it is my problem.
I can see the excitement in you guys waiting for the USD to make big moves. Well it might only start next week if tomorrow the expected USD selloff comes.
A question to all of you: I have watched Raghee Hornerās analysis in the blog and she concludes the following 5 currency stories (her video was made Monday morning but uploaded only today afternoon):
[I]stong: USD, AUD and JPY
weak: NZD, EUR[/I]
Based on that I can tap us on the shoulder as we came to these conclusions on the weekends! What I do not understand is the JPY. Why is it strong? Does anyone has any idea? The COT report shows that we are getting to an extreme level but still, JPY only gains on geo risk and the economy shows more and more weakness in the reports. I mean of course she does not have to be right, but I am still interested on this confidence on the JPY. I also asked her, letās see if she answers.
I see, all over the internet, that Bank Of America have warned their clients of a āsqueeze riskā on USD (although they remain bullish in the med-long term).
Now they issued the warning last evening, so Iām guessing that they have been reading FEās thread, if they had read the thread in the morning they may have issued their warning before the squeeze actually happened
FE, your analysis is excellent as usual, Credit Agricole are advising not to buy CHF āat current levelsā.
Edit: Always share, I forgot
USD Correction Begins Vs JPY, CAD; AUD/USD Squeeze Risk - BofA Merrill
To be honest FE I think this week (and may be the next few one) will be a huge bluff. We talked last weekend how commercials obtained around 55% of all JPY longs. So now they are marking its price up to sell a little bit before it goes down. Dollar is going up so they mark its price down to buy it before the real rally begins. This may not be what is happening exactly but its a nice way to simplify it.
I think we now have a clear pattern towards the end of 2014 which is dollar strength and Yen weakness.