Hey FE!!
You got it!
I’m here glued to the market. And man!! Look at the GBP.
I’m in with AUD also. I’m up like over 40 pips already. (total of them)
Hey guys.
Well, long term it is.
Man…I was blind sighted. Didn’t realize about the news event. As soon as I posted that last post, all excited, then turned back to the market, seen I was -55 pips. But, at least there was a good recoil.
So,…long term it is.
Now for some reading.
I’m ok boys.
Mike
Rookie…
I just remembered what you were looking for. From Peterma.
The 82.70 level is from the USdollar index. Here is a shot of it for you. 1 hr time frame, going back to last week. The purple line is that level.
FE,
about ILP(pizza), he traded 2k up to 10k on his thread, took about 12 weeks or so - most of the posts are gone now.
He used economics, no strange patterns or hammers, indicators etc.
He received a lot of ridicule because he showed complete confidence in his decisions.
His method involved a take profit aim of around 10-20 pips with a stop of 500 - it was just a fail safe stop, he would exit if there was a change in the fundamentals.
The ridicule generally involved this thing many talk about - risk/reward ratio, something that is pretty useless if a trader keeps getting stopped out only to see he was right in the first place.
Hi fellas.
Ok. This is my last and final set-up for the week. (ok at least for a day or two)
Pair: against —bought at— take profit
GBP: AUD—1.77971—60 pips
//////JPY----173.169 —41 pips
//////CHF----1.52751 —45 pips
//////CAD —1.80446 —65 pips
I took out the NZD. Entered in CAD.
And WOW. Who was it that said “patience is a virtue” ? And something about men?
I must have found some. Cause he comes GBP. Finally back into the money.
Mike
he also spectacularly destroyed at least one account under one of his many multiple usernames as I recall, but as usual those instances tend to get forgotten rather quickly 
there are always very valid reasons members get banned from forums, & his demise, along with most other [I]highly active posters[/I] on here over recent years, wasn’t at all surprising.
Hi guys,
this week we have 5 Monetary Policy Statements. Here is the article from Forex Gump:
And here is my bias:
EUR: bearish
CAD: neutral
GBP: neutral/slightly bearish
[I]AUD: slightly bearish[/I]
JPY: bearish
Now, the EUR and JPY lines up perfect with the trades I/we have. CAD is neutral for me but because of strong counterparts I do think we can come out good from this.
On GBP I am even a bit bearish but because of the weak other currencies I think the GBP “can survive” quite good even a slightly bearish statement.
My main problem is the AUD (I highlighted it). I am not in a hurry with my AUD trades however Stevens tries to jawbone down the AUD always “from historically high levels” as he says. Now, it is already a bit expected from him, but who knows how successfull he might be. The AUD trades (besides AUD/CAD) are doing great and for this reason I am thinking about to close them. What do you guys think? It is a hard decision and I do not like to change my bias on statements, however this time I have the feeling that AUD statement can either be negative or neutral. If I would be right then the best I can hope is not to lose.
Well the Asian traders did their level best with USDX, but as can happen mid that session it fell back to where it came from.
USD/CAD is still looking reasonably ok, although oil is still creeping up. The big one is USD/JPY still looking strong - maybe a little pull-back now please.
GBP/USD kicked off from it’s usual place at 6602.
Hi Peter,
if Oil price is increasing but CAD can only hold to its levels, can we say that it tells us CAD weakness? I am not 100% sure that is why I thought I ask. It is the correlation question again.
Yes, USD/JPY could really pull back to 144.05 as my entry was not triggered. Mike is making all those pips and I am just waiting From your comment I suggest that your order is also still waiting.
What do you think about my AUD worries? Please do not answer “I am not familiar with AUD”
This is a great start to the week. EURGBP short is 80 pips in profit, GBPJPY 15 (glad you took that FE, that makes 3 stolen trades :), EURND 8 pips profit, GBPCHF 20 pips in profit. I’m close to catching fire now
Yeah, I went long at 4.00pm uk on Usd/Cad, will monitor that one, oil on it’s daily has printed some higher highs, but nothing noteworthy.
Haven’t entered but hope to go long Usd/Jpy soon.
The Aud, I agree re the bearish aspect, a quick look at the daily gold and it’s showing recent lower highs and lower lows.
But I’m looking from USD perspective, Aud/Cad I just don’t know.
Philip…
I’m glad your on the GBP ride up also.
This is the week for them. Especially if they come out with not so good news, and yet after some time passes you can tell that money wants them higher. And that’s what is transpiring now.
All we need now is other economies to falter with their news to make way for a higher GBP, later on this week.
Mike
Hi guys,
hmmm Philip, you pay our dinner tonight! Good that it goes the right direction. Yes, actually I made my 3rd steal during the morning cruise on my charts!
I closed my AUD trades, I just do not expect something good from the news. I will check it tomorrow if it was a good or bad idea to close them. Based on Mikes charts this is a Major week. Now I feel better that I even confirmed my own decision I closed the 4 trades with +231 pips. I lost with CAD and won with NZD, CHF and EUR.
Peter,
I checked the chart at 4pm UK. There is no huge movement. I thought in such low liquidity period if you enter the market we can see the effects
I continue now the series here, I write here down my own thoughts about my second COT book as I read it. I write down anyway always for myself what I think is important to look it back later, so I decided why not to post it here too? Important: I write down the own words of the author, in the right order as it comes in the book. However I will not structure the different thoughts and do not write down which pages they were. I just want to mention the sentences which I find important for myself. This is not the same value for you as reading the book (hopefully you will all read it when you have the time for it), however it is better than nothing. I also make my own summary in the end of each post.
A Unified Theory of COT Data - Part II
I once interviewed more than 50 pretty good traders to see what made them tick along with 50 of the all-time worst traders I have ever known. The amazing thing is that there wasn’t much difference in the basic belief systems. There were two major differences that I was finally able to pin down:
-
The first is that the big winning traders were quite funny, humorous, and I guess you could almost say carefree in how they approached winning and losing. You bet, they didn’t like losing, but they dealt with it. The losers professed to hate losing as well, but were far more uptight about it than the winners. They were less accepting of the losses. Winners rolled with the punches, while the losers were usually floored.
-
An even bigger differencde between these polar gorups was seen in how they used stop-loss protection. To a man and woman, the large successful traders had an absolute form of risk control, while the margin meeters were seemingly without a notion of protection. Their stop losses were invariably triggered by pain; when they were under more pain than they could manage, then and only then did they pitch their positions. The winners had reversed that old athletic canard of “no pain, no gain” to "with pain, no gain. They avoided pain, while the losers did not. It is as simple as that.
Stop wasting your time looking for the fountain of youth or market perfection. It will do you far more good to study the commercials. Realize they are usually a little early, so look for a price trend change, and finally, use their action in relationship to trend.
A New Twist on the Commercials
Proxy index
→ this chapter looked to me quite a marketing issue. Williams showed how to use his own Proxy index on stocks where there is no COT Report. He made to index to try and show what the commercials are doing. He shows charts where the indicator works good. The trick is that he does not show and describe the way he calculates his index. If you are interested, you could actually find it on Larry Williams, Futures Trading, Futures Newsletters, Short Term Trading, Long Term Trading, Trading Education
He finishes the chapter with: “Now, thanks to the proxy index, we can have a sense of what the commercials would be doing and reporting, if we had reporting requirements in these markets.”
Summary: “A Unified Theory of COT Data” - Part II, has not much to do with COT Report I think. That whole chapter was about to show interesting studies and prove that trading is not a random activity. The part I copied here in my review was also certainly interesting but had nothing to do with the COT Report. The other chapter was only marketing for me, did not bring any value because at this moment I am not interested in trading stocks on a regular basis.
He he, are you watching USD/JPY, when you see a massive jump then I’m long
I’m glad you closed those AUDS, just spotted this little piece.
BBC News - China manufacturing activity misses forecasts in August
Hi guys!
Monday in the books.
NZD: +7 -0 0
GBP: +5 -1 1
EUR: +1 -1 5
CAD: +1 -2 4
AUD: +1 -2 4
USD: +1 -2 4
CHF: +1 -2 4
JPY: +0 -7 0
Comms took 'em. +5
Majors vs. Comms
NZD: +5 -0 0
GBP: +2 -1 0
EUR: +0 -1 2
CAD: +1 -1 3
AUD: +1 -1 3
USD: +0 -1 2
CHF: +0 -1 2
JPY : +0 -3 0
So we have NZD dominated today.
GBP was strongest Major. Only had a down day against NZD. Even against EUR.
A whole lot of evens today. Meaning many corrections ended the day.
JPY is weak.
EUR was down against NZD only and even against all others, (up against jpy).
So guys, what a day. I had fun on the sidelines today. Just been keeping an eye on GBP. Not doing so bad. At about break even. I got them running still. I’m in on USD/JPY also. Thanks to you guys!
Got to run.
Mike
…
Well done guys!
Good to hear you’re making those green pips! /Mike & Philip/
It was Peterma who said patience is a virtue. I’m putting that into practice this week. I’ve got 3 positions on NZDUSD short. I opened it last friday or thursday I think. And finally from this morning from asian session onwards the dollar has finally kick started its rally. So far looks good +50pips. But I’m keeping it long away from my TP. I’m not even moving SL to break even guys. I’m afraid it might got hit especially with USDCAD trade. I’ll wait patiently and TP at the end of the week.
One thing about splitting your lots is that for each position you get in a different price. The obvious. But the catch is that if there’s a bit of minor correction you get in at a better price than you did on your previous one. I’m liking this little trick so far.
USDCAD long limit order got hit. Only one position but I will be adding on to it more if minor retracement occurs.
Yesterday the volatility was very low. I’m glad that bank holiday in the States is finally over! Sorry Mike 
Thanks for posting the links FE monetary policy statements that are scheduled for this trading week. I’ll look at it over. Stay patient FE your limit orders will get hit very soon. I was reading through the thread yesterday and saw everyone doing great and I looked at my trades which were still at a loss and thought to myself, how much more do I have wait to see some green pips coming in. Well to my surprise the patience has paid off at least up until now, I woke up to see all my NZDUSD shorts have had some gains. I know its tough being patient especially in this business. But I know it will be worth it. Wise words Peterma !
Hi guys,
I have not read the news neither the thread yet.
Only wanted to say the trades are most likely doing good for everyone. It does not happen very often that I stay up in the morning, click through the charts and it looks as bright as today. This shows it does make sense to have the great conversations, analysis etc. If it goes good for me, it has to good for you as well since we all have similar trades.
I do not know how the RBA Statement was but looking at the charts I believe it was slightly bearish as I thought and it was definitely good to close the trades.
The USD/JPY boat and the USD/CHF left without FE. The pair was as 104.15 when I entered a 104.05 buy limit order and it was even lazy to make this little rertracement for me. Oh well, it does happen. Usually trades do no go right away our direction so I still prefer like this than always on market price to enter the trade. At least I know you guys in it. And 6 hours ago there was a large movement for the pair so I got to know that Peter entered it too.
CHF got stronger today, I guess it is because EUR is also stronger. In the long-run I do not worry about that one.
Have a great day.
PS: just an experience to share. Now it is important to remain calm, not entering thousands of further trades or increasing the lot sizes. Being greedy is not the right method to approach the market. We shouldn’t give it back what we have taken!
Good morning guys!
And what a GOOD morning it is!
Wow. I’m in the green. 3 of my 5 trades got closed over night, TP that is. GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY. For 152 pips. That is awesome when they reach up there, pretty high, grab the TP and then come back down.
So now I only have 2 remaining, GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD. I’m gonna monitor this until the news comes out. But, after this I’m done for the week. My account is really high now, % wise. In fact, I’m gonna take it easy for the rest of the month. Very very very particular trades if any as the month goes on.
Mike